French Open 2011: Rafael Nadal vs. Andy Murray and the Keys to the Match

Djokovic versus Federer.  Nadal versus Murray.  A major final at stake.

What I wouldn't give to be in Paris this weekend, ensconced in a courtside box eating French pastries and sipping a glass of Chardonnay, Dom Perignon or whatever they sell at Roland Garros?!  A body part or two?  Absolutely.  My oldest child?  I've got others.  My wife...?! 

I better not answer that.  

If you are lucky enough to be courtside or anywhere near the action at Roland Garros on Friday and Sunday, I envy your good fortune.  This is the kind of weekend ardent tennis fans can usually only dream about—one in which the stars align and world Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 will battle it out for a major title that holds tremendous significance for each one of them.

For Federer, it's a chance to put a fitting capstone on an already tremendous career and exorcise a few demons—OK, maybe just one demon or, better yet, Diablo, named Nadal—in the process.  Make it 17 Grand Slam titles and counting?  Multiples of each one?  Not too shabby.  Numbers befitting the unequivocal, mythical "Greatest of All Time," I'd say.

For Djokovic, it's an opportunity to erase any doubts as to the legitimacy of his ascension to the pinnacle of the men's game.  Dethrone Nadal at Roland Garros in his prime, and Novak will have most certainly arrived.  (Let me get that door for you, Mr. Djokovic.)

For Nadal, it's a watershed moment that could well define the rest of his career and his rivalry with Novak.  Turn Novak et al. away to claim a record-tying sixth French Open, and he continues on a career arc that will likely surpass Federer's current total of 16 Grand Slam titles before he's done.  Lose, especially to Novak, on his beloved clay, and suddenly Nadal's prospects of adding to his Grand Slam tally in bunches over the next few years are dramatically dimmed.

For Murray, it's a welcome, if perhaps unlikely, opportunity to secure his first Grand Slam title in four attempts and finally put to rest, after 75 years of waiting, the unmitigated suffering of an entire nation, nay, an entire Commonwealth, that is desperate for a native son to make good and win a Grand Slam.  No added pressure, Andy.  Just one major.  For the Queen.  Sooner than later, ol' chap, if you please.  Bloody good show...NOW WIN!

Any way it shakes out, it should make for compelling theatre: The world's four best tennis players, one French Open title and so much at stake.

I'm really going to miss my wife.  (Sniff)

Well, having already previewed the Djokovic-Federer semifinal, let's do the same now for Nadal-Murray and break down their relative strengths and weaknesses heading into their semifinal match.

Service Game

With the tennis ball in hand, Nadal and Murray are remarkably similar in that both have effective but underwhelming service games that can generate some free points in spurts but are unlikely to put opponents on their heels and keep them there.  

Nadal's greatest advantage on serve is his lefty slice out wide in the ad court, a serve he has used to bedevil Federer and his one-handed backhand to devastating effect.  Problem is, Murray hits a two-handed backhand and crowds the baseline, which all but neutralizes Nadal's only real service trick.

After finding and adding some much-needed pop to his serve en route to winning last summer's U.S. Open, Nadal has inexplicably reverted back to earlier form.  Why, you ask?  Have to ask Uncle Toni.  But it's perplexing because the faster serve worked for him then and translates well on any surface, even clay.

Murray's first serve is likewise an enigma in that he can crack it when the mood strikes him, but he doesn't seem to be in the mood that often.  To make matters worse, when he does let it fly, his first serve is woefully streaky in the best of times and downright godawful in the worst of times.  Fortunately for him and to his credit, he has markedly improved his second serve, which is no longer the 75-80 mph yawner it used to be.

So who holds the advantage on serve?  Sorry, fellas.  It's a draw, or deuce—take your pick.

Groundstrokes

This is where things get interesting.

Over the course of the last few years, Nadal's forehand has gone from topspin wonder and slayer of all one-handed backhands to arguably the most feared, ruthless shot in the men's game, no matter the opponent.  In transitioning from a more defensive player to an offensive one, Nadal learned to flatten out and drive through his forehand while maintaining most of the topspin that gave the shot such consistency and margin for error.  The result is a weapon, equal parts spin and speed, that has never before been seen in the men's game and is not easily imitated.  Add to that an equally consistent, if less devastating, two-handed backhand, and Nadal became a baseline offensive machine with the fiery temperament to match.

And Murray?  Well, true to Andy's proper, more conservative Scottish heritage, his groundstrokes are fundamentally sound, metronomically consistent, and unfailingly true.  So true, in fact, that Murray's groundstrokes beguile and break down most tour-level players he faces without much adieu. 

The problem has been that the moment Andy stands across the net from a Federer, Nadal or, more recently, Djokovic in a Slam or Masters finale—elite players who brandish truly offensive groundstrokes and are unafraid to let them fly—Murray's groundstrokes, by comparison, remain maddeningly leashed, grounded, tied to the post, left in their holster (pick your favorite cliche) until it's too late.  

The most recent case in point?  Murray's failure to lift off against Novak in January's Australian Open final, making him 0-3 in major finals and proving once again the old adage that, in the men's game, offense wins major championships, and only the truly elite players wield the kind of consistent offense, and the necessary confidence, to let it rip when it matters the very most.

Can Andy summon or cultivate the kind of go-for-broke, offensive groundstrokes and general shot-making to stay with Nadal or even put him on his heels?  Absolutely.  He's done it before.  In their epic semifinal match in last November's World Tour Finals, Nadal and Murray played inspired, offensive tennis that saw both players swinging out freely and hitting a dizzying array of offensive shots.  The match ended in a third-set tiebreak that could have gone either way, and though he lost, Andy was understandably proud of his effort and how aggressive he'd played.  

Yes, Andy has it in him.  The only unanswered question is this: Will he leave his defensive comfort zone and play an aggressive, offensive ground game when the stakes are the highest, as they will be against Nadal on Friday?

For now, and until Andy proves us wrong on the biggest stages, it's advantage, Nadal.

Defense

There's not much that needs to be said about Nadal and Murray on this point, other than to note that both are elite, top-three defenders who force opponents to hit more winning shots, and more difficult shots, than they are accustomed to making to win points.

Until Djokovic crashed the party, Nadal was the undisputed king of turning defense into offense, and his ability to hit winners from impossibly defensive positions is utterly breathtaking, especially on clay, where he has a fraction of a second more time to retrieve shots he runs down.  His speed to the ball is second only to Djokovic's, and what he does with it from there, under duress and given his strength, is probably still the best in the game.

Murray, too, in keeping with his counterpuncher's mentality, has an incredible, uncanny ability to create winning shots while on the move.  Relying less on speed and more on anticipation, Murray often knows where his opponents will hit the ball before they do!  Just how much he has to rely upon this sixth sense of his will be determined, in large part, by how he approaches the match in general.  

If he comes out aggressive and takes the fight to Nadal, he'll spend less time tracking down balls.  If he's passive and lets Nadal dictate play, Murray will be playing right into Rafa's hands, and he'll need more than his sixth sense and 4.3 speed in the 40 just to keep it close.

On the whole, there is little to separate Nadal and Murray in terms of overall defensive prowess, but I give a slight edge to Nadal because of his affinity for clay and more aggressive approach, even on defense.  Advantage, Nadal.

Intangibles

If there's a mismatch anywhere between Nadal and Murray, it's with the intangibles that will likely play a decisive role in the outcome of Friday's contest.

Two numbers tell the story and allow me to be brief: Nadal?  Nine.  Murray?  Zero.

Throw in the fact that five of Nadal's nine major titles have come at Roland Garros, and it almost doesn't seem like a fair fight.

Then there's the question of Andy's ankle and whether or not it will hamper his movement around the court.  His play to this point on a bum wheel has been nothing short of courageous—near heroic even.  Guile and guts have gotten Andy this far, past Troicki and Chela and into the semis, but it's hard to imagine that he can stay with Nadal, much less beat him, at less than full strength.

Intangibles?  A significant advantage, Nadal.

Prediction

Well, I gave this away in my preview of the Djokovic-Federer showdown.  I just don't see how Andy, as good as he is and still can be, has what it takes to take Nadal's place in the Sunday finale.  

If Andy should win, by anything other than a Nadal retirement, it would be a monumental upset.  No, a colossal upset!  Not because Andy isn't capable, mind you, but because the deck is so stacked against his doing so this time around that a Murray victory just doesn't seem remotely plausible.  This is Andy's first foray into the French Open semis, against the man who has owned the tournament and may well go down as the greatest clay-court player ever.

Kudos to Andy for getting this far.  I hope he puts up a great fight and makes the Commonwealth proud.  For now.

And there you have it.  My prediction?  Nadal, fairly comfortably in three sets.

And if anyone sees my soon-to-be alienated wife while I'm at Roland Garros, please tell her I love her!