SEC Football: Predicting 10 Games Worthy of an Upset Alert
One of the things that makes the SEC great is the parity among the football programs. The old saying was true, any team could lose on any given Saturday. However, during the 2008 and 2009 season that parity left. The SEC had become the Florida and Alabama show. The two teams combined for a conference record of 31-1 during those two seasons.
The lost parity returned in 2010 when Alabama and Florida combined for a 9-7 SEC record. This season looks to be one of the most competitive seasons in SEC history. There are no fewer than six potential SEC teams that could win the SEC championship and another two could be dark horse candidates.
This will be part one of a two part series. I am sure there will be some fans who are going to get upset because their team is on here multiple times. However, remember, you can only be upset if your the favorite. This means the bottom dwellers of the conference cannot be candidates to be upset.
The Iron Bowl: Alabama Versus Auburn
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I will start this slide with the most fierce rivalry in college football, the Iron Bowl. I was hesitant to add this game inside this article. It seems odd calling Auburn the underdog because they are the defending national champions and have owned the series versus Alabama over the last eleven years with a record of 8-3. However, once again, Alabama will be highly favored coming into this years Iron Bowl.
Why they might win: Auburn has several things going in their favor for this years Iron Bowl. First off, the game is in Auburn. The Tide have only defeated Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium once since the 2001 season. In 2009, the season they did win at Auburn, the Tide needed a seven minute drive to score the winning touchdown with only 1:27 remaining in the game. Alabama was heavy favorites entering the game. They would win the game and go on to win the 2009 BCS national championship that season. However, they barely made it out of Auburn as state champions. The blowout never happened and the Tide found out that the Tigers home field advantage at Jordan-Hare stadium is real.
Another advantage that Auburn will have is the amount of preparation time they will have prior to facing the Tide's amazing defense. Alabama does have, in essence, two weeks to prepare for the Tigers but can you really prepare to face a Gus Malzahn offense? His unpredictability was on display in 2009 as the Tigers ran several gimmick plays that they had not shown all season. Auburn ,on the other hand, after the Ole Miss game on October 29th, will have almost a full month of preparation for the Tide's 3-4 defense.
They have a bye week before they face a similar 3-4 defensive scheme against the Georgia Bulldogs on November 12th. The following week they will face Samford. They are unlikely to give much preparation time for the undermanned Bulldogs, choosing instead to further prepare for their instate rivals. Finally, the next week is Iron Bowl week. If they start 3-4 preparation the day after the Ole Miss game they will have a total of 26 days of preparation.
I feel certain, win or lose, Coach Malzahn will have his best offensive scheme ready for Alabama. The question is will the Tigers defense be able to hold Trent Richardson in check?
Probability: 50-50 Way too early prediction: Alabama 27 Auburn 24
Georgia Bulldogs Versus Boise State Broncos
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As an SEC fan you might be thinking the same thing that I am thinking and that is that Georgia should win this ball game. However, the Bulldogs will still be the underdogs nationally and could be as much as a seven point underdog on the Vegas books. Both teams have something to prove in this game. Boise hopes to win their once a year "we're-good-enough" game and UGA hopes to show that things have turned around and that they are once again a national power.
Why they might win: On paper there are a lot of similarities between the Broncos and the Bulldogs. Both teams have highly regarded quarterbacks who have lost their top two receivers from a year ago. Both teams are also in their second season under a new defensive coordinator.
As a result, both teams will look to run the ball more than in the past. At first glance, the advantage would go to the Broncos. Boise running back Doug Martin rushed for over 1200 yards last season and the Bulldogs are not even sure who their starting running back is going to be.
However, a closer glance tells us a different story. Despite working in new starters on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, UGA will be much bigger in the trenches than Boise. UGA stated a new strength and conditioning program that has had amazing results. Because of these results, here are how the lines will compare.
- Boise Offensive Line: 291lbs Georgia Defensive Line: 322lbs (+31 per player)
- Georgia Offensive Line: 329lbs Boise Defensive line: 277lbs (+52 per player)
The Bronco defensive line is fast but look for the Dawgs to run it between the tackles early and loosen the Broncos defense with play action passes.
The other large advantage is special teams. UGA is likely to have their best special teams unit in school history this season. With both teams trying to find their new identity early, this will become crucial. If UGA wins the field position battle the offense will follow.
Probability: 75-25 Way too early prediction: UGA 24 Boise State 17
South Carolina Versus Mississippi State
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After the good news this week, that troubled quarterback Stephen Garcia has been reinstated and Jadeveon Clowney had qualified academically, it is clear that South Carolina can compete for an SEC championship. However, few think they could compete for a national championship. It is usually a forgone conclusion that the winner of the SEC is in the hunt for the national championship as well. The problem for the Gamecocks is that they always lose a game or two under Spurrier that they shouldn't lose. This seasons game very well could be Mississippi State.
Why the might win: Mississippi State was 5-2 last season at home. The two games they lost were to the SEC's only two BCS teams, Auburn and Arkansas. In both games they had as shot to win at the end including a double overtime loss to Arkansas and a game winning drive stopped in Auburn territory.
South Carolina, on the other hand, was 3-4 away from their home field. Including an embarrassing loss to Kentucky the week after they knocked off the previous number one team in the nation, Alabama. For whatever reason Spurrier's team has been horrific on the road. In the last two seasons they are 4-9 when they do not play in Columbia.
Probability: 45-55 Way too early prediction: Mississippi State 24 South Carolina 17
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Alabama Crimson Tide Versus Arkansas Razorbacks
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In most peoples mind, Arkansas will field a good team this season. However, they have to travel to both Tuscaloosa and Baton Rouge to face Alabama and LSU respectively. As a result, few give Arkansas a chance to win the West. However, if they can win their first conference game versus Alabama not only will they have a chance to win the SEC west but they will be in the drivers seat on the way to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game.
Why they might win: Arkansas presents Alabama with a challenge they will not face any other time this season. Arkansas matches up well against Alabama's defense with the top wide receiving unit in the SEC and the SEC's leading returning rusher in Knile Davis. Davis was not yet the starter last season against the Tide but still had 42 yards on six carries.
Teams with both strong rushing and passing attacks have given the Tide fits in the past. Look no further than the 35 points they gave up to South Carolina last season. As a result, Arkansas is likely to be able to move the ball consistently against the Tide.
Another advantage in Arkansas favor is their schedule. Yes, they have to go into Tuscaloosa but they will spend the first four weeks of the season preparing for the Tide. Their first three games of the season are against Missouri State, New Mexico, and Troy. As a result, as soon as fall practices start most of their game preparation will be for the Crimson Tide. As good of a coach as Nick Saban is he does not want to give Coach Bobby Petrino a 4 week head start.
Probability: 50-50 Way too early prediction: Arkansas 27 Alabama 21
Georgia Bulldogs Versus Tennessee Volunteers
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You would think that UGA would have no problem getting up for the Tennessee game after the beat down they took in Knoxville in 2009. However, some in recent years it seems to happen regularly.
Why they might win: Tennessee comes into this game with one of the top receiving units in the SEC led by Justin Hunter. Their receivers are not on the level of a team like the Arkansas Razorbacks wide receivers yet because of their youth. However, young players almost always play better at home than they do on the road. If the Tennessee passing game moves the football and Tauren Poole gets enough touches this could be one of the most balanced offenses in the SEC.
This also could cost problems for the UGA secondary. With the move of Alec Ogletree from safety to middle linebacker the Bulldogs should be much better against the run this season. However, this does leave them without a proven safety in his old position. If Tennessee can expose that it could be another long night of hearing Rocky top for the visiting Dawgs.
Many of UGA's top players did not play in the 2009 Georgia massacre. Instead they were key contributors in the 2010 game where UGA defeated Tennessee 41-14. This will be a much different team than the one the Bulldogs faced in Athens and they must be fully prepared.
Probability: 45-55 Way too early prediction: Georgia 17 Tennessee 14
Tennessee Volunteers Versus LSU Tigers
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Last season in this game, LSU got off to a slow start and allowed Tennessee to stick around. They put together a good final drive but displayed horrific time management from the one yard line. As a result, a botched play led to Derek Dooley winning his first big game as a head coach and the Tennessee Volunteers pulled off a huge upset. However, the jubilation and statement win only lasted a few seconds as the Vols were penalized for having too many men on the field. LSU would win the game on the final play with a Stevan Ridley touchdown.
Why they might win: The LSU game last season has sat hard on the minds of the players, coaches, and fans. Look for Neyland Stadium , regardless of Tennessee's record at that time, to be electric. Tennessee will be looking at this match-up as a statement game of how far they have come since last season.
This game will fall on the shoulders of sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray. If he is able to keep his composure and pick his spots, Tennessee can pull off the upset. LSU will not look much different than they did last season when they faced the Vols. However, Tennessee will look much different and LSU will have to adjust. As a result, Les Miles will have to throw out last seasons notes and start fresh. Normally this would not be difficult but with the Tigers schedule this season this could be a week that LSU is not prepared. As good as Miles has been at LSU, these are the kind of games he has lost.
Probability: 45-55 Way too early prediction: LSU 21 Tennessee 24
Florida Gators Versus Kentucky Wildcats
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On paper, Florida should win this game by at least two touchdowns. However, this is a dangerous trap game. Kentucky is sandwiched in between rival Tennessee and top five ranked Alabama. Florida is unlikely not to be prepared emotionally for Tennessee. However, there is a good chance that they could be looking ahead to Alabama the next week.
Kentucky still has several playmakers despite losing Randall Cobb. While an upset is unlikely stranger things have happened in the SEC. No the Wildcats are no one of the top tier SEC football teams. However, they still have SEC players and looking past them could be dangerous.
Probability: 30-70 Way too early prediction: Flordia 31 Kentucky 17
Auburn Tigers Versus Arkansas Razorbacks
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The Razorbacks are expected to be outside contenders for the SEC West. Auburn, on the other hand, is supposed to be in a transition season. However, with the fireworks these two teams can display anything can happen.
Why they might win: Prior to this game, Arkansas will have back-to-back road games against top 25 teams. First, they have to travel to Tuscaloosa to face the Crimson Tide. Then, they have to travel to College Station to face the Texas A & M Aggies. Regardless if they win or lose those games it is still a lot of travel. The last coordinator you want to face after that trip is Gus Malzahn.
Auburn does have to Travel the week prior to the Arkansas game. However, one road game is better than two if the game turns into a shootout. Arkansas does have the home field advantage and the more experienced team but if they do not bring their "A" game this could easily be an upset.
Probability: 45-55 Way too early prediction: Auburn 34 Arkansas 31
Georgia Bulldogs Versus South Carolina Gamecocks
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Many see this game as a toss up. However, South Carolina will be favored coming into the game regardless of what happens in the UGA home opener. Partly because they are the defending SEC east champions and partly because they have a cupcake opener in week one. UGA, on the other hand, has a game against a potential top 10 team.
Why they might win: Last season South Carolina defeated the visiting Bulldogs 17-6. Despite the close score, then Freshman running back Marcus Lattimore dominated the Georgia defense for 182 yards and two touchdowns. Lattimore is reported to have gotten even bigger and faster this off-season.
Despite this, Lattimore will not have near the success this season as he had last season against the Bulldogs. Last season, the Gamecocks just pounded Georgia's undersized defense. If the Gamecocks are successful running the ball early look for Georgia switch to four down linemen with both Kwame Geathers and John Jenkins on the line. That would be over 700 lbs for the Gamecock line to try to move.
UGA also struggled offensively last season on the road against the Gamecocks. However, the UGA offense is typically much more explosive at home. Last season they averaged over 43 points per game at home and just over 22 points away from Sanford Stadium. In 2009, against the Gamecocks they scored 41 points. Add that with South Carolina's record of 4-9 over the last two seasons away from William-Brice Stadium and UGA could be looking at the drivers seat in the east.
Probability: 50-50 Way too early prediction: UGA 21 South Carolina 24
Alabama Crimson Tide Versus Florida Gators
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This is a game that few people give the Gators a shot to win. After two consecutive seasons with a blowout victory over Florida and a new Gator coaching staff the confidence is understandable. However, this is the SEC and this is a road game for the Tide.
Why they might win: The Gator's coaching staff is the number one reason they might win this ball game. Yes, coach Will Muschamp has never been a head coach but with his defensive background and the talent on campus in Gainsville the defense should be sufficient. The advantage comes in the form of offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss. No offensive coordinator in the nation is better equiped to face a Nick Saban defense than Weiss.
Both Weiss and Saban got their start under New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. After one season as head coach of the University of Toledo Nick Saban left the Rockets to become the defensive coordinator for Belichick when he was with the Cleveland Browns. This is where Saban mastered his 3-4 defensive scheme that he would later take to Michigan State on the collegiate level and still runs today for the Tide.
In similar fashion, Weiss got his start as an offensive assistant coach with Belichick. He would later become the offensive coordinator of the New York Jets before returning to the Patriots, this time as offensive coordinator. During his four seasons as offensive coordinator with New England he won three Super Bowl rings. However, the most important thing he did that prepares him for Saban's defense is four seasons of going against a very similar 3-4 defense every day in practice.
Another advantage for Florida is that the week before the the Alabama game they face Kentucky. Alabama, on the other hand, has a dangerous game versus Arkansas. Alabama cannot aford to look ahead as much as Florida might be able too.
Probability: 50-50 Way too early prediction: Alabama 24 Florida 20
Final Take
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Just as a pure fan, I am glad that parity has returned to the SEC. This season is going to be one of the best seasons in a long time. No matter what team you pull for your team is likely to have a fighting chance every Saturday,
Unfortunately this might mean the end of the SEC's reign of consecutive national championships. There are too many decent teams in undeserving conferences for two not to go undefeated.
However, at the end of the season, we will still know the last SEC team standing is still the best team in the nation.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
