Win-Loss Record Predictions for Every Team After 2026-27 NBA Schedule Release
The NBA has officially released the complete schedule for the 2026-27 season.
That means it's time to look at every team's upcoming campaign, compare their schedules with statistical projections and win totals fromย FanDuel Sportsbook, mix in a healthy portion of subjectivity and predict final records for everyone.
Before we get to each squad, though, there's an important note. Each NBA season has a finite number of wins and losses. There are 1,230 wins (and 1,230 losses) in total. So, if you're guessing the records for each organization, you have to get to those numbers. Having one team 10 games over .500 means some other team (or teams) would have to be 10 games under.
The predictions below meet those criteria. Here is how every team is projected to fare in 2026-27. Find your team below:
Atlanta Hawks: 45-37
1 of 30
Over-Under: 42.5
In: Devin Carter, Luguentz Dort, Ryan Nembhard, Aaron Wiggins
Out: Zaccharie Risacher
Rookies: Kingston Flemings, Zuby Ejiofor, Henri Veesaar
There's a pretty strong urge to go even higher with the Atlanta Hawks, who added Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins to a roster that was already rich on defensive length and versatility.
Even without a high-end traditional point guard, the defensive identity and the playmaking of wings and forwards like Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels should make this team dynamic on both ends of the floor.
If incoming rookie Kingston Flemings is able to make real contributions during this first season, this prediction has the potential to age poorly.
Boston Celtics: 52-30
2 of 30
Over-Under: 50.5
In: Mike Conley, Paul George, Mitchell Robinson
Out: Jaylen Brown, Nikola Vuฤeviฤ
Rookies: Chris Cenac Jr., Dillon Mitchell
The Boston Celtics took as many online slings and arrows as any team in the league this summer. The reaction to the Jaylen Brown trade was, to put it mildly, harsh.
But it's really not difficult to envision the world in which the Boston Celtics are better in 2026-27 than they were in 2025-26.
The infrastructure is still in place. Jayson Tatum is better than Brown and should be at 100 percent from the start of the season. Mitchell Robinson, assuming he can stay healthy, is a huge upgrade at the 5.
And while Paul George has understandably been panned in the wake of the Brown trade, he's actually a pretty good fit on this roster. No, he's not as good as Brown right now, but he'll be willing to play more of a complementary role alongside Tatum and is a much more reliable catch-and-shoot three-point threat.
As early as this season, Boston could erase much of the reaction to that deal and finish first in the East.
Brooklyn Nets: 22-60
3 of 30
Over-Under: 24.5
In:ย Keon Ellis, Julius Randle, Moritz Wagner
Out:ย Ziaire Williams, Nic Claxton
Rookies:ย Mikel Brown Jr., Joshua Jefferson, Tyler Bilodeau
It might be hard to believe that one of the few teams contending for the league's worst record caused an internal struggle here.
Twenty feels low for a team that will have Michael Porter Jr., Julius Randle and developing younger players Egor Dรซmin and Day'Ron Sharpe, but there isn't much proven talent on the roster beyond that.
And with the rest of the East beefing up over this summer, it's hard to find many other teams that are going to be shoved to the end of the standings.
Charlotte Hornets: 41-41
4 of 30
Over-Under:ย 39.5
In:ย Grayson Allen, Dorian Finney-Smith, Royce O'Neale, Naz Reid
Out:ย LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Josh Green
Rookies:ย Hannes Steinbach, Christian Anderson
It's not hard to imagine a universe in which the Charlotte Hornets take a bigger step back from last season's 44-38 record.
Their offensive engine, LaMelo Ball, is on the Minnesota Timberwolves. Their fourth-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder, Miles Bridges, is a Phoenix Sun. Charlotte is going to feel both losses.
The conference-wide improvement in the East is also going to impact the Hornets.
But there's also a method to the offseason madness here. Moving Ball and Bridges will provide more on-ball opportunities for Coby White, Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller and quicker development for the latter two.
All three had positive net rating swings last season, and the outgoing stars (or in Bridges' case, fringe star) were replaced by solid role players who'll support the new core.
If they get earlier-than-expected contributions from Hannes Steinbach and Christian Anderson, the Hornets might actually be a better opening-to-closing-night team than they were in 2025-26. A decline in wins could have more to do with the rest of the conference as it does with the players who left.
Chicago Bulls: 28-54
5 of 30
Over-Under:ย 29.5
In:ย Nic Claxton, Norman Powell
Out:ย Anfernee Simons, Mouhamadou Gueye, Collin Sexton
Rookies:ย Caleb Wilson, Dailyn Swain
There's plenty of reason for optimism for the Chicago Bulls, but with apologies to veterans Nic Claxton and Norman Powell, it still has a lot more to do with the future than the present.
By landing Caleb Wilson with this summer's fourth overall pick (and after seeing him operate like a wing in summer league), Chicago now has one of the most interesting young frontcourts in the NBA.
Wilson and Matas Buzelis both have loads of potential as play finishers (both inside and out), and at least Wilson has shown some serious playmaking upside too.
This season will mostly be about flashes from them, and perhaps to a lesser extent, Josh Giddey. If the Bulls can follow that up by adding an exciting young guard or wing to the core next summer, Chicago will be in good shape.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 49-33
6 of 30
Over-Under:ย 47.5
In:ย ๐คทโโ๏ธ
Out:ย Larry Nance Jr., Keon Ellis, Dean Wade
Rookies:ย Meleek Thomas
The Cleveland Cavaliers and their fans were surely dejected when LeBron James chose the Philadelphia 76ers over them. James Harden's free agency still needing a resolution, though less stressful, is another concern.
But it feels like the parties will ultimately come to an agreement on that front, and Cleveland will still have one of the better top fours in the East with Donovan Mitchell, Harden, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
Without James and Dean Wade, depth is a bit more of a question than it was last year, but that core is one that should still win plenty of games in the regular season.
Dallas Mavericks: 38-44
7 of 30
Over-Under:ย 32.5
In:ย Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberoviฤ, Zaccharie Risacher, Marcus Sasser
Out:ย Marvin Bagley, AJ Johnson, Khris Middleton, Ryan Nembhard
Rookies:ย Morez Johnson, Sergio de Larrea, Tobi Lawal, Vsevolod Ishchenko
It almost feels like the bookmakers are folding the possibility of a Kyrie Irving trade into this over-under, so I will too (their track record on these numbers is strong).
And even with that possibility considered, this feels like a relatively safe bet on the over.
Beyond the return of Irving and a likely second-year leap from Cooper Flagg, Dallas' new-look front office knocked this offseason out of the park.
Morez Johnson should bring size, toughness and defense. Sergio de Larrea looked like maybe the best distributor of this rookie class at summer league. And each of the additions of Zaccharie Risacher (the No. 1 pick just two years ago), Tarik Biberoviฤ (a proven shooter in the EuroLeague) and Santi Aldama were shrewd.
The cost on those moves wasn't much, and all three fit well around Flagg.
Even if the Mavericks don't quite get to .500 this season, they should be knocking on the door very soon.
Denver Nuggets: 50-32
8 of 30
Over-Under:ย 48.5
In:ย Marvin Bagley III, Alpha Diallo
Out:ย Tim Hardaway Jr.
Rookies:ย Trevon Brazile, Bryce Hopkins
Outside of the Golden State Warriors and maybe New Orleans Pelicans, the Denver Nuggets are drawing about as much ire as any team in the league for their offseason.
They still haven't resolved Peyton Watson's restricted free agency, and their only additions were backup big Marvin Bagley III (who should actually help the bench) and EuroLeague defensive specialist Alpha Diallo.
It's not the kind of splashy summer Nuggets fans may have wanted after a first-round flameout in the middle of Nikola Jokiฤ's prime.
But regardless of what happens with Watson, this team will still be in good shape for regular-season success.
Over the last nine years (including the playoffs), Jokiฤ and Jamal Murray are first and 13th, respectively, in total raw plus-minus. Over the same stretch, Denver is plus-8.7 points per 100 possessions when both are on the floor.
If the Nuggets get moderately good health from those two, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson and Christian Braun, they should have a good shot at another 50-win season.
Detroit Pistons: 50-32
9 of 30
Over-Under:ย 48.5
In:ย John Collins, Gary Harris, Isaiah Joe, Taurean Prince
Out:ย Tobias Harris, Caris LeVert, Marcus Sasser, Isaiah Stewart
Rookies:ย Ebuka Okorie, Ugonna Onyenso
The Detroit Pistons' restricted free agency stalemate might be even more concerning than Denver's.
The Nuggets will be short on depth and athleticism without Watson, but Jalen Duren was the Pistons' second-best player last season. Without him, it's tough to imagine Detroit approaching anything close to its success in 2025-26.
But without any real spending power left around the league, the chances of Duren being on a different roster are pretty slim.
And with solid veterans ready to deploy around that two-man game, including John Collins and Isaiah Joe, the Pistons should still be one of the best teams in the East.
Even with dramatic improvements all over the conference, this is a team that can still get to 50 wins.
Golden State Warriors: 34-48
10 of 30
Over-Under:ย 39.5
In:ย ๐คทโโ๏ธ
Out:ย Quinten Post
Rookies:ย Yaxel Lendeborg, Lajae Jones
It's obviously not Stephen Curry's fault that the Golden State Warriors are in the position they're in. On the contrary, Curry still playing at an All-NBA level as he approaches his 40s is the only reason the Warriors remain somewhat competitive.
But after another offseason highlighted front-office whiffs (this time, it was LeBron James), it's starting to feel like Curry's career could follow a trajectory similar to Kobe Bryant's and Dirk Nowitzki's.
One-franchise legends earn big post-prime paydays, which can make building a team around them more difficult. As recently noted by Trey Kerby of No Dunks, that dynamic led to the Los Angeles Lakers winning 17 games in Bryant's last season and the Dallas Mavericks winning 33 in Nowitzki's.
Curry may not quite be there yet, but he'll turn 39 this season, and his supporting cast is old, injured or both. If anything, this projection might be giving him, Steve Kerr and Draymond Green a little too much benefit of the doubt.
Houston Rockets: 50-32
11 of 30
Over-Under:ย 46.5
In:ย Bogdan Bogdanoviฤ, Marcus Smart
Out:ย Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Okogie
Rookies:ย Bruce Thornton
The Houston Rockets had one of the sadder first-round exits in the NBA last season, losing to a Los Angeles Lakers team that only got two games from Austin Reaves and had Luka Donฤiฤ miss the entire series.
At least on paper, they lost some defense and athleticism this summer, too.
So, why such an easy clear of their over-under and a prediction for another 50-win campaign?
Well, Houston wasn't at full strength for that matchup either. Fred VanVleet obviously isn't Luka (and probably isn't Reaves either), but it's tough to find and maintain an offensive identity without your starting point guard.
He should be back for 2026-27, and there's still plenty of room for development from all of Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr. and even Alperen ลengรผn.
Add that to a little offensive pop off the bench from Bogdan Bogdanoviฤ, playmaking and defense from Marcus Smart, and of course, Kevin Durant, and this team should have a good shot to clear its over.
Indiana Pacers: 46-36
12 of 30
Over-Under:ย 43.5
In:ย Larry Nance Jr., Kelly Oubre Jr.
Out:ย Kam Jones, Micah Potter
Rookies:ย Braden Smith
The Indiana Pacers took a massive risk when they traded for Ivica Zubac and sent out their 2026 first-round pick with only a top-four protection. They lost that coin flip, and the No. 5 selection (and Keaton Wagler) ultimately went to the Los Angeles Clippers.
But that doesn't mean the Tyrese Haliburton-less gap season was a total loss. Indiana's record was part of what made that pick valuable enough to get Zubac.
And with the big man and Haliburton added to a rotation that will return Pascal Siakam and hopefully healthier versions of Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, the Pacers should be right back in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Clippers: 24-58
13 of 30
Over-Under:ย 30.5
In:ย Rui Hachimura, Gradey Dick (trade on hold), Brandon Ingram (trade on hold)
Out:ย Bogdan Bogdanoviฤ, John Collins, Kawhi Leonard (trade on hold)
Rookies:ย Keaton Wagler, Baba Miller, Nick Martinelli, Narcisse Ngoy
It's actually a little surprising to see a number on the board for the Los Angeles Clippers, who still have no clarity from the league on whether the Kawhi Leonard trade will even happen.
If it does, the Clippers are almost certain to be one of the worst teams in the West.
Sure, there's maybe some reason for optimism with Darius Garland, Keaton Wagler and Yanic Konan Niederhรคuser, but that's certainly not a trio that's ready to win (at least not in bulk).
Even in this era with Adam Silver's new anti-tanking rules, L.A. seems more likely to unload veterans for whatever value it can find before the deadline than it does to push for a .500 record.
Los Angeles Lakers: 48-34
14 of 30
Over-Under:ย 44.5
In:ย Matisse Thybulle, Ziaire Williams, Quentin Grimes, Jaden Hardy, Walker Kessler, Kevon Looney, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Collin Sexton
Out:ย Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, Jaxson Hayes, LeBron James, Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart
Rookies:ย Cameron Carr
It's tough to top the Philadelphia 76ers, but the Los Angeles Lakers would have to be in the mix for at least the second wildest offseason in the league.
The Lakers' offseason turnover includes LeBron James' departure, but that was only the start. Five other players who logged regular rotation minutes are gone, while more than five potential rotation players have arrived.
The resulting roster leans heavy to the offensive end. And ultimately, at least as it relates to the regular season, that's probably fine.
With Luka Donฤiฤ (and to a lesser extent, Austin Reaves) orchestrating, this attack is going to be able to outscore the opposition more often than not, even without much potential on the defensive end.
Memphis Grizzlies: 31-51
15 of 30
Over-Under:ย 29.5
In:ย Jerami Grant, AJ Johnson, Kris Murray, Quinten Post, D'Angelo Russell, Isaiah Stewart
Out:ย Santi Aldama, Ja Morant
Rookies:ย Cameron Boozer, Karim Lรณpez, Richie Saunders
The Memphis Grizzlies have a chance to have one of the quicker rebuilds since, well, the last Grizzlies rebuild.
Within two years of losing Mike Conley and Marc Gasol in 2019, Memphis had a winning record with Ja Morant. And while that era ended in borderline disaster, it's not hard to imagine this next one starting in similar fashion.
Beyond Cameron Boozer looking about as NBA-ready as a rookie big man can, there are several bona fide rotation players on this roster.
If they can stay healthier than they were last season (Zach Edey and Ty Jerome both missed most of 2025-26), Memphis could push for a win total in the mid-30s.
Miami Heat: 49-33
16 of 30
Over-Under:ย 44.5
In:ย Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bobby Portis
Out:ย Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakuฤionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware
Rookies:ย Ryan Conwell
This may feel like short-changing one of the biggest winners of the offseason a bit, but the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade cost the Miami Heat a lot of depth. The East is going to be stronger, too. And Giannis has struggled with availability in recent seasons.
But enough with the nitpicking. This still seems like a relatively safe bet on the over.
A frontcourt with Giannis, Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins is loaded with length, athleticism and defensive versatility.
And while a lot has been made of this team's lack of shooting, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Simone Fontecchio, Bobby Portis and Tim Hardaway Jr. shot a combined 40.9 percent from three last season. Nikola Joviฤ's outside shot abandoned him in 2025-26, but he hit 38.3 percent of his three-point attempts over the previous two seasons.
Erik Spoelstra may still need to creatively stagger Giannis and Bam's minutes, but there's enough firepower here for a good offense. And the defense is almost a given.
Milwaukee Bucks: 18-64
17 of 30
Over-Under:ย 26.5
In:ย Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakuฤionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Caris LeVert, Kel'el Ware
Out:ย Giannis Antetokounmpo, Gary Harris, Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince
Rookies:ย Brayden Burries, Nate Ament, Malique Lewis
The Milwaukee Bucks emerged from the Giannis trade with a decent collection of quality NBA players. On some nights, they'll probably look pretty competitive.
But we had to balance the wins and losses somehow. The East is going to be loaded and someone has to finish last in the conference.
Without a single superstar on the roster and a handful of veterans who seem destined to be traded before February, the Bucks are a prime candidate for that dishonor.
On the bright side, Milwaukee fans should be treated to plenty of developmental minutes from Brayden Burries and Nate Ament.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49-33
18 of 30
Over-Under:ย 47.5
In:ย LaMelo Ball, Josh Green, Trey Lyles
Out:ย Kyle Anderson, Mike Conley, Julius Randle, Naz Reid
Rookies:ย Isaiah Evans, Trey Kaufman-Renn
As you can see, the Minnesota Timberwolves lost a ton of rotation minutes this offseason. Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Kyle Anderson and Mike Conley were second, fifth, ninth and 11th on the 2025-26 team in wins over replacement player. Donte DiVincenzo, who was fourth on that list, is going to miss the season with a torn Achilles.
That's a lot to overcome, and incoming Josh Green and Trey Lyles are far from proven rotation players.
But there's a starting five here that's absolutely loaded with playmaking and scoring from Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball, defense from Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels and gap-filling from Ayo Dosunmu.
Even if depth is a question mark entering the season, the top of this roster is going to have this team competing for another 50-win season.
New Orleans Pelicans: 27-55
19 of 30
Over-Under:ย 28.5
In:ย ๐คทโโ๏ธ
Out:ย Kevon Looney
Rookies:ย Jaron Pierre Jr.
The New Orleans Pelicans have felt like perennial under-achievers for most of Zion Williamson's career, and the bookmakers have adjusted accordingly.
As that number suggests, the Pelicans are likely in for another season with a win total in the 20s, but there is a world in which things finally go right.
There's plenty of raw talent between Dejounte Murray, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Zion and Derik Queen, but health is a big question mark for Murray and Williamson. And the idea of Queen anchoring a defense is borderline alarming.
New York Knicks: 53-29
20 of 30
Over-Under:ย 52.5
In:ย Andre Drummond
Out:ย Ariel Hukporti, Mitchell Robinson
Rookies:ย Jack Kayil, Tyler Nickel
Losing Mitchell Robinson is a big deal. He's one of the best offensive rebounders in NBA history, and that skill came through in a pivotal moment in the Finals.
But Andre Drummond can at least replicate a lot of the rebounding (though probably not the defense), and most of the rest of the title-winning core is back.
With Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns, the New York Knicks will still have one of the best starting fives in basketball.
There's decent backcourt depth behind them too. Landry Shamet, Jose Alvarado and Miles McBride are all back.
And while it'd be nice to have a little more help on the wing, the versatility of Hart, Bridges and Anunoby helps there.
The defending champs, assuming even moderately good health, seem pretty likely to clear 50 wins again.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 56-26
21 of 30
Over-Under:ย 61.5
In:ย ๐คทโโ๏ธ
Out:ย Branden Carlson, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins
Rookies:ย Aday Mara, Bennett Stirtz, Otega Oweh
They may not harp on it publicly, but the Oklahoma City Thunder can reasonably believe that injuries were all that cost them their shot to repeat as champions.
By the end of the conference finals, they were without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell. Those two, Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso all missed significant time during the regular season.
So, they certainly could've justified getting the whole band back together and hoping for a little better health in 2026-27.
Instead, the Thunder unloaded all of Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe to get under the second apron and keep some transactional powder dry for the future.
Flexibility isn't the only reason this makes sense, though. OKC has loads of young talent in need of some proving-ground minutes. Now, Nikola Topiฤ, Jared McCain, Mitchell and Cason Wallace can step into more opportunities. If they flourish, great. If not, at least the Thunder will know they need other pieces.
And even if 2026-27 is a little bit about experimentation, having Williams, Hartenstein, Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander means the Thunder will still probably finish first in the West.
Orlando Magic: 45-37
22 of 30
Over-Under:ย 43.5
In:ย Nikola Vuฤeviฤ
Out:ย Moritz Wagner
Rookies:ย Izaiyah Nelson
The Orlando Magic are set to be one of the most expensive teams in the NBA this season, which is a tough pill to swallow when it's largely the same roster that underwhelmed in 2025-26 and lost in the first round.
But the Magic, like OKC, can chalk up much of their troubles to injury luck. The foursome of Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner played fewer than 200 minutes together. And by the time the team got moderately healthy, they pushed the top-seeded Detroit Pistons to seven games in that first-round loss.
If those four can simply stay upright for more games than they did in 2025-26, even in the improved Eastern Conference, Orlando can clear that over-under.
Philadelphia 76ers: 50-32
23 of 30
Over-Under:ย 50.5
In:ย Anfernee Simons, Jaylen Brown, Ariel Hukporti, LeBron James, Dean Wade
Out:ย Paul George, Quentin Grimes, Kelly Oubre Jr., Andre Drummond
Rookies:ย Labaron Philon Jr.
Good luck finding a team and starting five with more raw talent than the Philadelphia 76ers.
The lineup of Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James and Joel Embiid will look dominant. Sure, the usage will be a balancing act. Embiid anchoring a defense has gone from a plus to a likely minus. But the sheer firepower is going to make this team a nightmare to defend.
Still, that balancing act is going to take time to figure out. Embiid and James are almost certain to each miss dozens of games. And as we've repeatedly said, the East is going to feel loaded this season.
All of the above makes them a slight under, but it's tough to make that prediction with any confidence.
Phoenix Suns: 34-48
24 of 30
Over-Under:ย 38.5
In:ย Miles Bridges, Luke Kennard
Out:ย Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale
Rookies:ย Koa Peat
The Phoenix Suns were one of 2025-26's most obvious feel-good stories. So, it's certainly not fun to predict a step back, but they finished last regular season 6-10 and got swept in the first round.
And while the addition of Miles Bridges could bring some offensive pop, Phoenix isn't going to surprise anyone this season. And having well-intentioned role players like Grayson Allen and Royce O'Neale could prove more valuable than the front office realized.
Of course, this under is far from a sure thing. Devin Booker is still one of the best 2-guards in the league. Collin Gillespie should be more comfortable as a starter now. And Mark Williams may have turned a corner with his durability, as he played a career-high 60 games last season.
Portland Trail Blazers: 42-40
25 of 30
Over-Under:ย 41.5
In:ย Branden Carlson, Ja Morant, Micah Potter
Out:ย Matisse Thybulle, Jerami Grant, Kris Murray
Rookies:ย ๐คทโโ๏ธ
This is another prediction that kind of hurts to make. The Portland Trail Blazers have been a fun story with steady development. Much of their core is pretty young, so an improvement over last season's 42-40 record wouldn't be shocking.
They're also adding Ja Morant and Damian Lillard to that promising core. In terms of raw talent, that could certainly help.
There will be an adjustment period as Morant, Lillard and Deni Avdija determine who runs the offense. They will also be playing for a first-year coach on an unheard-of one-year contract that puts a lot of pressure on him to perform.
There are some pretty significant hurdles to overcome, but the young core of Avdija, Donovan Clingan, Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson has enough upside to still pull Portland to an over-.500 record.
Sacramento Kings: 20-62
26 of 30
Over-Under:ย 20.5
In:ย ๐คทโโ๏ธ
Out:ย Devin Carter, DeMar DeRozan
Rookies:ย Darius Acuff Jr., Alex Karaban, Emanuel Sharp
The Sacramento Kings were woeful last season.
They entered thinking they were playoff contenders, were 12-40 before the trade deadline, didn't blow things up, eventually fell to 12-46 and then won too many games down the stretch to finish with a bottom-three record (and a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 pick).
Now, even if they know they're not going to push for a playoff spot in 2026-27, it doesn't make a ton of sense to unload Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine. Ending up with one of those bottom-three records now actually gives you worse odds to land the top pick than non-playoff teams outside that trio.
Kings fans, in all likelihood, are stuck watching another campaign with those two, Keegan Murray, De'Andre Hunter and Malik Monk playing big minutes. And whether they're trying to win or not, they're probably going to be in the mix for last place in the West.
On the bright side, they did land a potential difference-maker with the seventh pick in Darius Acuff Jr., but he won't be ready to make a distinctly positive difference for a few years.
San Antonio Spurs: 55-27
27 of 30
Over-Under:ย 60.5
In:ย Tobias Harris
Out:ย ๐คทโโ๏ธ
Rookies:ย Jayden Quaintance, Tarris Reed Jr., Ja'Kobi Gillespie, Maliq Brown
The race for first place in the West feels unlikely to include more than two horses.
Those are the aforementioned Thunder and these San Antonio Spurs, who followed a way-ahead-of-schedule Finals appearance by adding some leadership and experience from Tobias Harris and trusting in internal development.
Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle are all going to be better. Just by virtue of the fact that they went as deep as they did in the playoffs, even De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and the rest of the supporting cast should come back more grizzled too.
With multiple potential stars, several role players and Wembanyama, who figures to be a perennial MVP candidate for the foreseeable future, San Antonio is one of the few top-tier title contenders.
Toronto Raptors: 48-34
28 of 30
Over-Under:ย 44.5
In:ย Kyle Anderson, Kawhi Leonard (trade on hold)
Out:ย Gradey Dick (trade on hold), Brandon Ingram (trade on hold), Sandro Mamukelashvili
Rookies:ย Allen Graves, Jaden Bradley
Like the Clippers, the Toronto Raptors are sort of in limbo until we know whether the Kawhi trade is allowed to go through.
The swing for them isn't as dramatic, though. Either way, they should be plenty competitive, particularly on the defensive end.
Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles have the potential to be one of the most dynamic defensive combos in the league. With several other plus defenders around them, the Raptors are going to be one of the tougher teams to score on.
Of course, the version of the team featuring Leonard has a higher ceiling. As good as Barnes is, he's not quite the offensive closer Toronto needs to be a contender. So, even if things aren't dire without Kawhi, they also aren't likely to push for a Finals appearance.
Utah Jazz: 38-44
29 of 30
Over-Under:ย 36.5
In:ย Jaxson Hayes, Josh Okogie
Out:ย Walker Kessler
Rookies:ย Darryn Peterson
The Utah Jazz are a trendy pick to get back to the playoffs, but they'd likely have to double last season's 22 wins to even be in the mix.
And while there's more than enough veteran talent here to predict a big leap, particularly from a frontcourt with Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr., there's still a pretty serious lack of experience everywhere else.
Beyond Keyonte George, who broke out with 23.6 points and 6.1 assists last season, Cody Williams, incoming rookie Darryn Peterson and Ace Bailey are almost entirely unproven. Even George's numbers are fair to side-eye, given how bad the team was in 2025-26.
The Jazz are definitely going to be better. And Peterson has very real star potential (he looked like one of the most natural scorers in summer league). But the climb from competitive to legitimately good still feels a year away.
Washington Wizards: 38-44
30 of 30
Over-Under:ย 32.5
In:ย Deandre Ayton, Khris Middleton
Out:ย Jaden Hardy, D'Angelo Russell
Rookies:ย AJ Dybantsa, Felix Okpara
The analysis for the Washington Wizards is similar to Utah's. Yes, they should absolutely be better.
Even without AJ Dybantsa, Trae Young and Anthony Davis all but guarantee a better record than last season's 17-65. With Dybantsa, Washington has a trio that could seriously push for a play-in spot.
But it's tough to imagine much more than that.
AD's health is a constant question mark. Ditto for Trae Young's defense. As good as he looked in summer league, Dybantsa is surely in for some growing pains.
And with the possible exception of Alex Sarr, the rest of the team is completely unproven.
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.png?w=2560 "Fernando Mendoza avoided this Vegas attraction")
.png?w=2560 "Quick Take on Every Team ๐ฃ๏ธ")
.jpg?w=2560 "Daniels Sends LSU Cease-and-Desist Letter")
