Fantasy Baseball: Is Jose Bautista Tradeable in the Make-Believe MLB World?

Starting in September 2009, Jose Bautista has been a power machine. He clubbed 10 home runs in that month alone, a remarkable pace that led into his mammoth 54-HR season last year. Even after his incredible season, fantasy owners were not buying into his numbers. A lot of different factors scared them off from including Bautista in the top five or even top 10 players in baseball.

Firstly, he had people scared that he was the next Brady Anderson. In 1996, Anderson hit 50 home runs, after never hitting more than 21 in any previous season. After his super season, he only hit over 20 home runs again once in his career.

Another factor that concerned people about Bautista was his low batting average. In a league where players like Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton and, of course, Albert Pujols can give you power with a higher batting average, fantasy owners chose to place their wages on them. 

This season that has all changed. Bautista is again leading the league in home runs, at an even higher pace, but has also added on-base percentage and slugging percentage titles, and is third in baseball in BA to his repertoire. He is so dominant in these categories that his OPS is over 190 points better than Lance Berkman, the second highest in baseball. What is most impressive about Bautista's continuous rise to superstardom in the baseball world is that he is the most-walked player in the game. He leads the league in walks, despite missing eight games due to injury and the birth of his daughter.

With his lead in all of these crucial categories, the question that begs to be asked is should a fantasy owner ever consider trading him? 

At this point in the season it is an unquestionable fact that Bautista has simply been the best. He is outclassing everyone, and if he had a good hitter hitting behind him, Jose would probably be in an even stronger fantasy position. However, the reality is, especially with Adam Lind on the DL, that he really is a one-man show in the Jays lineup. The fact that he is the only player on the team worth being scared of may prompt pitchers to pitch around him, which may end up diminishing his numbers.  

Assuming that your fantasy pool is five categories (R, HR, RBI, BA, SB), the aspect to consider is what the strengths of your team are. Assuming you do not believe that Bautista will have a serious power outage, you are most likely willing to concede that he will be the league leader in HR. However, if you drafted him at the beginning of the season, you most likely have an affinity for HR, and you do not necessarily need his power in order to win the category.

Bautista's batting average has been slipping in the past 10 days. He went from a .375 BA to a .342 before getting three hits yesterday to raise it back up again to .353. To expect a decline to more normal numbers is something that should be expected, as he is seeing fewer quality pitches. (I might add though, that his on-base percentage may not go down, as he continues to show patience at the plate and is getting walked at a Bondsian rate.)

Also, for a man that has hit 20 HR, the fact that he only has 35 RBI should be a cause for concern for fantasy owners. The lineup in front of him is relatively weak, and often he does not have people on base when he hits home runs. While 35 RBI despite missing eight games is a remarkable number, if there is a slight decline in his home run production, we may see a significant drop in his RBI totals.

Also, another cause for Bautista's RBI concerns are that he is hitting very few doubles this season. It seems that Bautista will either get his RBI via the home run, or he will not get them at all. In a similar proposition with his incredibly high batting average, 36 percent of his hits have come via the home run. In essence, that means if his home runs start falling a little bit short, his RBI total will suffer significantly, as will his batting average. Aside from Barry Bonds, the league has not seen a player this decade so reliant upon the HR.

So what are the other options? If I had to make one statement that defies all of the statistics of this season, it would be to accept any offer involving Albert Pujols. With him playing for a new contract this summer and all of the protection that he enjoys in the Cardinals lineup, it would be silly to think that the most consistent hitter of the generation will not break out of his funk. While some might say Bautista is at an all-time high and can only come down, it is a guarantee that Pujols is at an all-time low and will only get better.

Is there anyone else? Assuming that you do not need Bautista's exorbitant home run numbers, the best bet as an overall option for your team may be Ryan Braun. While I would not recommend trading Bautista straight up for Braun, it may be worthwhile to try and receive a nice package.

Braun brings with him the entire package. He is the only player in all of baseball that is in the top 20 in all five categories: runs, BA, RBI, HR and SB. The real advantage that he gives you over Bautista is his SB. He is 12th in all of MLB in the category.

Another advantage of Braun is that he plays, at least for now, in the same lineup as Prince Fielder. This provides him with the protection that he needs to see the proper pitches and also helps him increase his RBI total. His numbers also seem a little bit safer for the marathon of the MLB season. His ratio of HR (12) to RBI (37) is much healthier than Bautista's, which shows one of two things, both of which are positive for Braun owners:

1. He is hitting home runs with more people on base because his teammates are more talented.
2. He is finding other ways to hit home runs, which places more security in the consistency of Braun's bat.

The only reason that I would make any trade for Jose Bautista is if I was absolutely blown away—a package that includes Ryan Braun may just do it. I would especially be inclined to consider it if I was doing well in the HR department and was lagging behind in SB.

While Jose Bautista is the best player in the league, the nature of fantasy sports is that players that can provide all five categories are highly valued. For that reason alone one ought to consider Ryan Braun as a viable trading piece in return for the best player in all of baseball.

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