To Trade or Not to Trade? Roy Williams Tops t`he List

Each fantasy season the champion has no doubt changed his drafted team, via waiver moves and trades. 

If you talk to the owner of that championship team, he has stories about trade offers he turned down and trades he made that eventually put him over the top.  At this point of the season, if your team is a playoff contenting team, it is time to look over your team and think about do you have the team to win it all.  Here is a list of players I feel are at peak value that are perfect sell high candidates.

Target week indicates the week you should try and trade the player.

TRADE AWAY

1)     Roy Williams, WR, Dallas, Target Week:  now

So Williams went from the outhouse to the penthouse huh?  Or did he end up going to a team that has more problems then the US economy? 

Jerry Jones traded for Williams to solve two problems, cut down the double teams on Terrell Owens and open up the middle more for Jason Witten.  Make no mistake, Williams is in a better place with Tony Romo throwing to him, but his value will only go down.  With T.O. and Witten already chirping in Romo's ear for more balls, and Marion Barber being so good catching the ball out of the back field, there just isn't enough balls to make Williams any more valuable. 

Plus, Witten and T.O. are already favorites in the Red Zone, and Barber is a beast inside the 5.  Owners of Williams should be on the phone working the whole "Can you imagine what Williams will do with a real QB throwing to him?" angle.

2)     Mewelde Moore, RB, Pittsburg, Target Week:  now

Moore was a popular waiver pick up this past week, and he didn't disappoint with 120 yards and 3 touchdowns, but this will probably be the extent of his productive weeks.  Moore is a great handcuff to Willie Parker, and if you don't own Parker, I would be working hard to make a deal with the Parker owner. 

Pittsburgh has 2 rough weeks coming up with the Giants (12th vs run) and Washington (6th vs run) before hitting a easy Indy rush defense, but Parker will probably be healthy by then.  Also, in weeks 14 and 15 they play Dallas and Baltimore, 7th and 1st vs the rush.  There just isn't much more upside to Moore.  Start contacting Parker owners you may be happy you did.

3)     Ben Rothlisbeger, QB, Pittsburgh, Target Week: after week eight

Big Ben hasn't produced like last year, and I would think most owners are feeling a bit nervous if he's their No. 1.  The fact of the matter is Rothlisberger isn't 100% healthy, and Pittsburgh hasn't played the easiest schedule vs pass defense.  It doesn't get much easier either.  The next three games are all vs teams that can shut down the pass. 

Outside of the Cleveland disaster, the Giants were playing at a top five level.  Washington and Indy who are 13th and sixth vs the pass are the next two games, which will make it very difficult for Rothlisberger to improve his value.  It is now, or at the very least, after week eight, that you should try and get as much as you can in a trade. 

You certainly don't want Big Ben as your No. 1 QB if you plan on doing anything in the playoffs, with weeks 14-16 being Dallas, Baltimore and Tennessee being the opponents.  Dallas is ranked 17th, but Baltimore and Tennessee is first and fifth, which would spell one and done for a fantasy team.

4)     Baltimore RB's, Target Week:  after week 10

Depending on any trade deadlines, owners will have three more weeks of production from Willis McGahee, Le'Ron McClain and Ray Rice.  None of these guys should excite you much anyway. 

McGahee is banged up and hasn't been off the injury report all year.  Most of this season he's only rushed the ball in the first half.  He had a nice week this week, this is why it's time to start shopping him around. 

McClain's value is already dropping and Ray Rice value has gone up.  You probably have to hold on to all three through the next three weeks, as they play Oakland (19th vs rush), Cleveland (25th vs rush), and Houston (24th vs rush). Which will reward these guys with more production, boosting their value a little more. 

The biggest problem is this is a three headed monster.  All three backs will get touches.  McClain looks like he'll be the goal line TD back, which hurts McGahee, and there is talk that Rice will have a increased role.  Plus, the horrible match ups in weeks 14-16 (Washington, Pittsburgh and Dallas are sixth, second, and seventh vs run) should make you feel sick if you are counting on these guys to produce during that time.

5)     New York Giants RB's, Target Week:  NOW

So far as a Brandon Jacobs owner you have had good production, so-so with Derek Ward and not much with Ahmad Bradshaw. 

The Giants are about to go through the hardest part of their schedule. In fact, it's the hardest fantasy schedule in the NFL.  Jacobs is the prime guy here, and his value is at it's peak, if you wait any longer to try and move him you will kick your self.  He won't be running against St.Louis, Cincinnati, Seattle, Cleveland, or San Francisco anymore. It will be vs top 12 ranked defenses vs the run. 

In fact, the next four games are vs the second, seventh, 10th, and first defenses against the run.  Also, Jacobs is a big guy who seems to wear down as the season goes on.  The Giants are using Ward and Bradshaw to keep Jacobs fresh, but it is still a concern for fantasy owners. 

The Giants will face Philly, Dallas and Carolina during weeks 14-16, not a easy run schedule.  Owners of these guys should treat it like the stock market and SELL, SELL, SELL.

6)     T. J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincy, Target Week: after week nine

Let's face it, Cincinnati is a mess.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is the QB, there's a guy named Ocho Cinco, and some three or four time criminal is back on the team. 

Right now T.J. is at peak value.  Everyone knows he's good, so I believe you could get some real value in return.  With Chris Henry back in the picture, this will take away more targets for T.J.  His value is increased in a PPR league, but I don't think there are many more big games for him. 

With the Bengals losing, I fully expect Carson Palmer to be shut down at some point, so that leaves Fitzpatrick as the QB.  T.J. owners have two more weeks that should still produce good numbers with Cincy facing the 16th and 23rd ranked pass defense in Houston and Jacksonville.  But coming out of their bye week it will be much harder for T.J. to produce.  Philly, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indy and Washington from weeks 11 to week 15, ouch!

7)     All Cleveland WR, Target Week: week 8 through week 10

Okay, this should just read Braylon Edwards since I think he's the only WR they have, quick, name another WR in Cleveland.  I guess you can consider Dante' Stallworth a WR when he's healthy.  But the prime fantasy WR on Cleveland is obviously Edwards. 

Edwards has high value on name alone, but you are running out of weeks to be able to use this value to get good value in return.  While week six vs the Giants is still fresh in owners minds (five receptions for 154 yards and a touchdown), it's time to start working those trade lines. 

Edwards and Cleveland still have some decent games left with Jacksonville (23rd vs pass) and Denver (31s vs pass), but there is also Baltimore, Buffalo and Indy, who are first, eighth and sixth against the pass, respectively.  Also, from weeks 14-16 Cleveland plays Tennessee (fifth vs pass), Philadelphia (10th vs pass) and Cincinnati (fourth vs pass).  Cincy isn't a pass stopper, but they can't stop the run, so Edwards production will be down since that game probably will just see a steady dose of Jamal Lewis.  The time is now to see if you can get a better WR for weeks 14-16.

8)     Correll Buckhalter, RB, Philly, Target Week: now

This is more for those owners that don't already have Buckhalter handcuffed to Brian Westbrook.  If you are Buckhalter owner and not a Westbrook owner, I would be calling that owner and bringing up Westbrooks ribs big time.  If you only have Buckhalter, it's time to trade him.  His value, especially to Westbrook owners, is at the highest it will be. 

Buckhalter is a good player, but his fantasy value is limited when Westbrook is playing.  He'll get some numbers in mop up, but you just can't count on him as a starting back week in and week out.  Philly doesn't have bad match ups coming out of their bye, but Westbrook is back.  I'd be going after those Westbrook owners, I think you'll be surprise on what they would be willing to give up.

9)     Santana Moss, WR, Washington, Target Week:  after week 8

Moss has always been this type of player, meaning, he gives you greatness followed by confusion.  He's done it his whole career 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns in '03, followed by 800 yards and five touchdowns in '04.  1400+ yards and nine touchdowns in '05, followed by 800 yards and six touchdowns in '06. 

You just can't count on Moss.  Eight catches and 145 yards in week four, followed by no catches in week five and two receptions in week six.  Jason Campbell has a lot to do with it this year as he looks like he's regressed a bit this season. 

The season still has plenty of solid match ups for Moss, but Antwaan Randel El and Chris Cooley are starting to see their targets go up and Moss is going down.  I don't like it, and as a Moss owner I'd be worried.  Moss has also shown signs of not coming up big vs the tougher teams (no catches vs Philly, who is 10th vs pass), and in weeks 14-16 Washington will face Baltimore, Cincy and Philly, who is first, fourth and 10th vs the pass, respectively.

10)     Donovan McNabb, QB, Philly, Target Week:  after weeknine

Yes McNabb is having a pretty solid fantasy season, and he's probably been a big plus to fantasy owners.  This is exactly why it's time to sell high with Donovan.  How many times in the past four season's has McNabb been leading a fantasy team and bam!  He's out. 

You previous owners know what I'm talking about, you know who you are, you're the ones at the draft that say "I'm not taking McNabb, I'll punt the QB position before I take him again." 

I'm with you.  McNabb has not been able to stay healthy, he's been banged up already and he'll face teams that put big time pressure like the Giants twice, Baltimore and Washington.  So far McNabb has lit up the bad pass defensive teams and has struggled vs the top ones.  After facing the 24th ranked pass defense in Atlanta this week, it's time to sell. 

If you are not happy with the offers, let McNabb light up Seattle in week 9 and you can pretty much write your own ticket.  Keep in mind, if you can trade him, Philly will face NY (9th ranked vs pass), Cleveland (11th ranked vs pass) and Washington (13th ranked vs pass) in week five vs Washington McNabb threw for 196 and 0 td's.

TRADE FOR

1)   Randy Moss, WR, New England, Target Week:  after week nine

Moss obviously took a big fantasy hit when Tom Brady got injured.  I think he has up side for the rest of the season though.  His value can go up and some of you might have some owners that are ready to give up. 

Set some tracks now, but don't make any offers.  Do what you have to do to let Moss owners that he only scored his two touchdowns on Monday because Denver is so bad.  Then wait until after week nine when they play a much harder defense in Indy.  Moss should struggle vs the No. 6 pass defense. 

Then you can go back to those Moss owners and use the ol' "I told you so."  Moss is a good candidate during playoff weeks 14-16 also, Seattle, Oakland and Arizona, 22nd vs pass, 24th and 18th make this one of the easiest schedules a WR will face.

2)     Mark Bulger, QB, St.Louis, Target Week:  now

Okay, St.Louis is terrible, and they may have lost Stephen Jackson, but St.Louis still has some weapons at WR and their schedule is pretty favorable the rest of the way for the pass. 

Bulger has been a complete waste since he's signed his big contract.  Partly because their offensive line is a mess.  Most of the time, Bulger is running for his life, that's hard to do and still find open receivers. 

I think Donnie Avery and Drew Bennett coming back will allow Bulger to have some more play making options.  One of the biggest reasons to go out and get Bulger is because St. Louis doesn't play a pass defense under 12th ranked the rest of the way.  And check out their match ups during weeks 14-16, Arizona, Seattle and San Francisco, 18th, 22nd and 20th vs the pass, respectively.  Bulger hasn't reached his fantasy peak yet, he could be a steal.

3)     Tim Hightower, RB, Arizona, Target Week:  after week 8

Arizona is using Edgerin James way too much and you can see he's wearing down.  Hightower is a better RB then James or I believe he would be if given the chance.  James is valuable, but Hightower has a lot of upside and I would think in most fantasy leagues, they are very similar in points earned to this date. 

Here's the thing, Arizona has a great schedule the rest of the way as far as run defenses, but they also have a decent schedule as far as pass defense and Hightower is much more valuable catching the ball out of the back field.  Hightower has a chance to put up some good numbers as a receiving back, which is good for PPR leagues. 

I think right now you could easily get Hightower much lower then what I feel his value will end up, especially after next weeks game vs Carolina.

4)     Ryan Grant, RB, GB, Target Week:  now

Well it should have been two weeks ago you tried to get Grant, as it might be getting too late.  But during this bye week, work like hell to pry him away from his owner. 

You need to get his owner thinking about his terrible yards per carry (3.1 yards per carry) over the past two games and that Aaron Rogers will be ready to throw more after the bye.  And not thinking about how he's increased his yardage the past three weeks and he finally hit the end zone this past week, or how he will face easy match ups in weeks 14 and 15. 

Grant is a guy who still might be under valued by his current owner.  Grant looks like he's getting stronger and starting to look like the back of last year.  You may still get him at a cheaper rate.

5)     Kevin Curtis, WR, Philly, Target Week:  now

Curtis broke out last year and was McNabb's favorite target.  He's not big, not a speed demon, but he does have good hands and runs good routes.  Curtis is expected to play in week eight, so the time is now to go after him if he's owned in your league.  His value is so low, you might not have to give up much for him.  Philly comes out of the bye with four games vs Atlanta, Seattle, Giants and Cincy, all good games for possible production, so you have to get him before these games, or the asking price may be too high.  There is no risk trading for Curtis, his value can only go up.

6)     Greg Olsen, TE, Chicago, Target Week:  now

Did anyone notice how good Olsen looked this past week?  He played well vs a pretty tough defense vs TE's, so that was impressive.  I like Olsen the rest of the way too.  His 8 targets the past 2 weeks is also a good sign.  They have looked for him in the Red Zone the past 2 weeks, which is even more good news.  The Bears have a favorable schedule the rest of the way as far as defenses vs the pass and TE points.  Olsen's value is on the rise, so now is the time to work on a deal.  If you are hurting at TE, Olsen is a good guy to try and get.  If he doesn't get himself into trouble with drops, his value will continue to rise right through week 16.

7)     Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo, Target Week:  now

This is the perfect guy to try and get if you can.  His value might still be a little low, but it won't be for much longer.  I know there are leagues where owners have Roethlisberger, David Garrard and Chad Pennington as their starters, and Edwards will finish ahead of them by the end of the season in points. 

Edwards has grown more the Campbell has and he has formed a connection with Lee Evans, who will always give you that deep catch.  His next two games are vs the 29th and 28th ranked defense vs the pass, so get him now.  Edwards' value will be much too high after these next few weeks.  To make things even better, Buffalo plays Miami, Jets and Denver in weeks 14-16, the 29th, 28th and 32 ranked defense vs the pass.  Get him now!

8)     Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo, Target Week:  after week 8

Lynch has been, well, pretty boring so far.  Around 65 yards and a td a game is pretty much what you get.  I still feel like Lynch's value is still lower then where it will end up.  To make sure, don't go after him until they face Miami and their No. 8 ranked run defense.  After that his value should drop enough to make it possible to get him and not kill your team. 

After this coming week, Buffalo's run schedule will get a whole lot easier, including a game vs No. 32 ranked run defense in Kansas City.  Lynch has a tough match up in week 14 against Miami, but if you make it into the second round of your playoffs you're looking at the Jets and then Denver and their 26th ranked run defense.

9)     Tony Gonzalez, TE, KC, Target Week: now

Gonzalez is not happy.  He wanted out of Kansas City and he made it known.  He is a mad man and this could mean good things as far as fantasy numbers.  Gonzalez is going to prove he is not washed up. 

He's going to showcase himself and that will be good news for fantasy owners.  He is perfectly capable of putting up good numbers, and with bad, young QB's in KC, they'll be looking to dump off to him often, especially down in the Red Zone.  The Jets handle tight ends pretty good, so you could wait on more week, but I would be going after him now.  You also have two great match ups in weeks 14 and 15 in Denver and San Diego,

San Diego has given up the most fantasy points to tight ends.  He's a good guy to go after before his value get's to it's peak.

10)     Brandon Lloyd, WR, Chicago, Target Week:  now

Here's a guy that was Kyle Ortens favorite target in the first three weeks. 

It looked like they developed a connection, so it was unfortunate Lloyd got injured.  His value is rock bottom right now.  He actually may be available in most league on waivers.  If he is on a team go after him now, you will probably get him for nothing.  I'm not convinced Hester will be consistent enough to stay in the starting lineup as a receiver. 

Marty Booker and Rashied Davis are solid, but also show inconsistency.  Lloyd can stretch the field, and when back I look for him to pick up where he left off.  He is all upside on a all of a sudden good passing team.  He's a great candidate to stash away and bring him out for their match ups vs Detroit, St. Louis, Minnesota, Jacksonville, New Orleans and Houston.