Fantasy Football's Biggest Boom or Bust Players in 2026

With training camps in full swing across the NFL and the preseason fast approaching, the start of the 2026 season is coming into focus. And with August nearly here, fantasy draft season is set to begin in earnest.

That means it's time for savvy fantasy managers to start digging into rankings and ADP data, looking for players who might be mispriced. It's time to read up on potential sleepers and busts and identify the guys whose wide ranges of outcomes can legitimately win or lose leagues.

In other words, it's time to talk boom/bust players.

There's plenty to be said for targeting players with sky‑high fantasy ceilings—guys with the potential to be not just weekly starters, but dominant lineup anchors. The problem is that many of those high‑ceiling options come with equally frightening floors—outcomes that can derail not just a single matchup, but your entire season.

Every player listed here has the kind of range of outcomes that can either swing a league in your favor or sink it. All are being drafted as high‑end weekly starters. And all but one is coming off the board before the end of Round 5.

And none of them is a pick for the faint of heart.

QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

AP Photo/Nick Wass

ADP: QB2

With an average draft position overall of 54—over two rounds later than the first quarterback (Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills) is coming off draft boards, it's not difficult to see the appeal of Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

Even if Allen does again claim the title of fantasy's top signal-caller, it will likely be similar to a year ago—he'll beat out the rest of the field, but not by a sizable margin.

But if Jackson puts together a season close to his fantasy apex, he's capable of separating from the field and completely dominating the position.

Just two years ago, Jackson put together one of the best fantasy seasons ever by a quarterback—4,172 passing yards, 41 scoring passes, 915 rushing yards and four scores on the ground, the highest air yards per attempt of any quarterback in the league and almost 40 more fantasy points than Joe Burrow. In his first MVP season, Jackson led the league in touchdown passes, rushed for over 1,200 yards and outscored the No. 2 quarterback by an even wider margin.

But while Jackson has a pair of top-five fantasy seasons over the past four seasons, he also has a pair of finishes outside the top-15 over that span. In both of those seasons, Jackson missed at least four games, including a 2025 campaign where he managed just 26.8 rushing yards per game—easily the lowest mark in that category of his career.

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo/David Dermer

AP Photo/David Dermer

ADP: QB4

Joe Burrow is the highest-drafted fantasy quarterback this year who is a pure pocket passer. There were a dozen quarterbacks in the NFL in 2025 who had more rushing yards last year than the 330 yards Burrow has over the last three seasons combined.

Now, Burrow doesn't necessarily need his legs to be an elite fantasy asset. As recently as two years ago, Burrow was the NFL's leader in pass attempts (652), completions (460), passing yards (4,918) and passing touchdowns (43). That season, Burrow had more fantasy points at his position than any quarterback not named Lamar Jackson.

With Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at his disposal, a 5,000-yard season from Burrow wouldn't be any kind of major upset—if he can stay healthy and upright.

As Liz Loza wrote for ESPN, therein lies the rub:

"Burrow has managed three seasons of more than 10 games played and three seasons of 10 or fewer played. Sentiment surrounding the Bengals' offensive line is more optimistic than it has been in years because all five starters are returning. Still, this is a group that registered a pass block win rate of 57.6% (28th) last season and grades out as a bottom-five unit heading into 2026."

Challenging for the top spot at quarterback may be pushing it, although Matthew Stafford of the Rams came close last year as a pure passer. But the flip side with Burrow is getting hurt and finishing outside the top 15.

The latter has happened both times Burrow has had an ADP of QB4 in the past.

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

ADP: RB3

There isn't a bigger boom/bust player in all of fantasy football this year than San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey.

Granted, this analyst has spent much of the summer playing up the "bust" aspect with McCaffrey. There are a lot of historical precedents working against him. The history of backs who have eclipsed 370 touches in a season isn't great. Backs who gain 2,000 total yards in a season almost always regress the following year, and it has already happened to McCaffrey twice.

It wasn't pretty in 2020 or 2024.

Add the history of 30-year-old running backs, and there are quite a few landmines that could blow McCaffrey's 2026 campaign to smithereens. But it also cannot be denied that if he can somehow avoid all of those pitfalls, he has the potential to be more than just fantasy's No. 1 running back. He could blow every other back out of the water.

We have seen it happen before. Just last season, McCaffrey outscored the No. 2 fantasy running back by over 40 PPR points. That's nothing compared to what he has done in the past. In 2023, he topped 2,000 total yards, scored 21 total touchdowns and annihilated every other running back by over 100 PPR points. In 2019, it was 1,000 rushing yards, 1,000 receiving yards and almost 150 more PPR points at the position.

That kind of dominance wins fantasy leagues. But if McCaffrey misses most of the season again, it will sink squads that take him in Round 1.

RB De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

AP Photo/Doug Murray

ADP: RB7

De'Von Achane has the potential to challenge for the No. 1 spot among running backs.

Last season, the fourth-year speedster surpassed 1,800 total yards, caught 67 passes, found the end zone a dozen times and posted top-five fantasy numbers among running backs.

Achane led the league at 5.7 yards per carry, and as Doug Orth wrote for The Huddle, advanced stats paint a similarly appealing picture:

"In terms of metrics on NFL's Next Gen Stats, Achane was sublime. His 4.4 yards after contact per attempt was the best mark of all 49 qualified running backs in the NFL. Nobody had more 10-plus yard runs or 15-plus MPH runs than Achane last year, owing to his otherworldly explosiveness. Last season saw a sizeable efficiency rise to 5.7 YPC and 1,350 rushing yards. In all three seasons, Achane has scored double-digit total touchdowns as well. He is good. REAL good."

Achane is indeed wildly talented. The team around him? Not so much.

New Miami starting quarterback (Malik Willis) showed flashes in limited action in Green Bay but is still largely unproven as a starter. The team's pass-catching talent may be among the worst in the league. Dan Fornek of FTN ranked Miami's offensive line 27th in the NFL this year.

Miami's passing attack won't be keeping defensive coordinators up at night, so Achane will be looking at eight-man fronts with regularity. The offensive line isn't good, and projected game scripts aren't going to do him any favors in 2026.

He also had shoulder surgery this offseason, just in case the rest of that wasn't depressing enough.

WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

ADP: WR7

Drake London's career has admittedly been a bit up-and-down.

The targets have consistently been there—London has topped 110 targets in all four NFL seasons. In 2024, it all came together—London was third in the NFL in targets, caught 100 passes, topped 1,200 receiving yards, scored nine touchdowns and finished fourth in PPR points at the position. Even in an injury-marred 2025, London was eighth among wideouts in PPR points per game.

As Derek Brown wrote at Fantasy Pros, had London not gotten hurt last year, he'd likely be ranked that much higher in 2026:

"Despite Michael Penix and Kirk Cousins, London was cooking last year before a PCL injury derailed his season in Week 11. In Weeks 1-10 last year, London was the WR6 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he was fourth in target share (30.3%), fourth in receiving yards per game (86.4), sixth in yards per route run (2.74), fifth in first-read share (37.6%), and seventh in first downs per route run (0.135, per Fantasy Points Data). London should be a locked-in WR1 this season with top-five upside."

However, the cold hard truth is that London has one 1,000-yard season in four years, in large part due to unsettled quarterback situations. That situation is no better this year—Michael Penix Jr. is still rehabbing the ACL tear that ended his 2025 season, and newcomer Tua Tagovailoa is now on the shelf with a dinged-up back.

The idea of Tagovailoa winning the starting job already wasn't ideal—he isn't the quarterback who led the league in passing in 2023 anymore. Now, there's even more uncertainty under center in Atlanta—uncertainty that lowers London's fantasy floor.

WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Foto/Matt Patterson

ADP: WR11

There isn't a more polarizing wide receiver in fantasy football in 2026 than Rashee Rice of the Kansas City Chiefs. In terms of per-game production, he has flashed elite fantasy upside—he averaged almost 10 targets, over 70 receiving yards and 18.5 PPR points per game in 2025.

That last number was fifth among wide receivers.

Per SI's Daniel Outerbridge, it's Rice's ability to do damage after the catch (7.8 YAC per reception in 2025) that gives the 26-year-old a sky-high fantasy ceiling:

"The advantage Rice has is his ability to gain yards after the catch (YAC) and take a simple 5-yard pass the distance. If he had been able to maintain that pace over the course of a whole season, Rice would have comfortably been among the top two WRs in that category. He also is a favorite of Mahomes whenever the Chiefs are in the red zone. As one of his most trusted receivers, Rice had a 61.6% red zone catch percentage, ranking him eighth overall among NFL wideouts."

Fantasy drafters are enamored enough with Rice's upside to draft him inside WR1 territory in 2026. But there are multiple reasons to be concerned that Rice will come up well short of his ADP.

There's his lengthy injury history—after missing just one contest as a rookie, he has played in only 12 games over the last two seasons combined, including nine missed contests last year. Rice appears to have avoided further discipline from the NFL after an offseason arrest for violating his probation, but that incident still contributes to his off-field risk profile from a fantasy standpoint.

The SMU product also plays with Patrick Mahomes, who is returning from a torn ACL in his left knee, adding another layer of volatility to Kansas City's passing game heading into 2026.

Rice has a fantasy ceiling inside the top five—and a floor outside the top 50.

TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

ADP: TE1

To be clear, this fantasy analyst has no real qualm with Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers being the second tight end drafted on average this year. He was fourth in PPR points per game at his position last year in an injury-shortened campaign. The year before that, he was the TE1 overall.

There are those who believe that the best is yet to come for Bowers. In fact, Jason Katz of PFSN went so far as to predict that he will have the best season by a tight end ever in 2026:

"The bar is 2020 Travis Kelce: 105 catches, 1,416 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 20.8 PPG. I think Bowers clears it. Understand what he has already done in miserable conditions. Bowers has finished as a top-three fantasy tight end in both of his first two seasons, averaging 15.5 and 14.5 PPG while playing for a bottom-five graded offense each year. He's caught 6.1 balls per game across 29 career contests. He posted a 23.6% target share and a 22.2% targets per route run rate last season while fighting through a sprained PCL. Those are absurd numbers. Both have room to climb."

With that said, it's hard to see where a significant bump in target share is going to come from—we're already talking about a player who dominates that category for his team when healthy.

The quarterback position in Vegas remains a question mark, and a new staff and offensive scheme could mean that target share actually comes down.

Barring injury, Bowers will be a fine TE1 this year. But taking him in the middle of Round 2 (and ahead of Arizona's Trey McBride) is a decision drafters may come to regret in 2026.

TE Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Colts TE Tyler Warren

ADP: TE4

As a whole, Tyler Warren had a fine rookie season with the Indianapolis Colts—the 14th overall pick was targeted 112 times, caught 76 passes for 817 yards and four touchdowns and finished as a top-five fantasy option.

While speaking to reporters, Warren said he has every intention of building on that rookie success in 2026:

"For me, the big thing is the explosion out of my breaks. Getting into the break is one thing, but being able to accelerate out of it and still -- you create that space, but being able to hold that space is really big. But really when it comes down to all of the little fundamentals, I think is the biggest thing in this league. Everyone is so good, you gotta have everything you're doing to the T and perfect."

The issue here isn't Warren as a player, his asking price in Round 5, or his target share in 2026 after the Colts traded Michael Pittman Jr. The potential problem is the quarterback situation in Indy.

Yes, Daniel Jones has reportedly been fully cleared for training camp. But he's just eight months removed from tearing his Achilles. Not only does Jones need to show that he's healthy again, but he has to try to back up last season's career year.

Over the first eight weeks of last season, Warren posted six double-digit PPR games. From Week 9 on, with Jones on the shelf, Warren had two such games and was 16th in PPR points among tight ends.

That's bust territory.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.