Roland Garros: How Far Will Each Top Player Go?
In recent years, Rafael Nadal has dominated on the red clay in Paris. Putting aside 2009, when he lost in the round of sixteen to the unexpected Robin Soderling, Nadal has won five out of the last six French Opens. Who can stop him this year?
Who better than the man that already beat the King of Clay on his favorite surface twice, Novak Djokovic? The two have met in two consecutive finals, in Madrid and again in Rome.
Let's not forget the "Greatest Tennis Player of all Time". Roger Federer might have enough fuel left in his tank to reach his 17th Grand Slam and 2nd French Open title.
Could Andy Murray finally prove he's a champion and win his first Grand Slam, or will this be yet another letdown for the Scot?
This year could also resemble 2009, when an unknown came out of no where to stun the crowds in Paris.
The Americans
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The two best Americans left in the draw are Mardy Fish and Sam Querrey, both of whom have never had much success in Paris. I wouldn't be surprised if by the time you are read this, neither American is left in the draw.
It's hard to say which American has the better chance at making it through. Sam Querrey has never gotten past the first round in the French Open, and Mardy Fish (the highest ranked American in the draw) has only reached the second round twice.
John Isner played a great marathon match against Nadal, but came up short in the last set. It was a great match for Isner as well as for American tennis, and it showed Isner can compete with the top players on the tour. The match proved that Americans aren't far from finding success in Paris, and that they'll no longer go down without a fight.
The most famous American tennis player (whether it's for his wife or for his serve is up for debate), Andy Roddick, pulled out of the French Open because of a shoulder injury. Roddick will not be badly missed, as in his nine appearances at the French he has reached the fourth round only once.
Prediction on how far any American will go: Third Round (Mardy Fish)
Gael Monfils
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Gael Monfils is an athletic freak, and always entertaining to watch. Monfils always finds a way to get an "wow" or a cheer from the crowd, whether it comes from sliding 10 feet and finishing in the splits, or returning a volley so hard it ends up in the stands. Monfils can always find a way to get the fans in the stands on his side, but the true question is whether he has what it takes mentally to win a championship.
Monfils has shown the world that he has the skills to play with the top five, as he made the semifinals in 2008 and the quarterfinals in 2009. But, can he mentally tune in long enough (two weeks) to win his first Grand Slam?
Every year we hope this will be the time we see Monfils in the finals, with the crowd on his side. He's playing on his home-court. All signs are leaning his way, but can he stay focused long enough to win?
Prediction on how far Gael Monfils will go: Quarterfinals
David Ferrer
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David Ferrer is the second-best Spanish player in the field after Nadal. Ferrer has shown in the past few months that he has what it takes to make the finals (in Monte Carlo and in Barcelona) but has come up short to his countryman both times.
Ferrer has made the quarterfinals twice in Paris, and this year has stepped up and made the semis in Australia (albeit on a completely different surface). Can he continue his successes on the big stage?
This year, it will all come down to whether Ferrer can take the next step and finally win a Grand Slam.
Prediction on how far David Ferrer will go: Quarterfianls
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Juan Martin Del Potro
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Juan Martin Del Potro is one of the unluckiest players on the tour. Soon after stunning the crowds in New York by beating both Nadal and Federer (ranked first and second in the world at the time), Del Potro got injured. The injury cost Del Potro a year, and he is still recovering both physically and mentally.
In 2009, Del Potro had recovered enough to make the semifinal round at the Roland Garros, showing that he can still play and win on the red clay. Unfortunately, his bad luck landed him a spot in the draw next to the hottest player on the tour, Novak Djokovic.
Can Del Potro return to his winning ways, or will his nagging injury continue to hold him back?
Prediction on how far Del Potro will go: Third Round
Robin Soderling
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Robin Soderling took on the world by surprise in 2009 when he was a took the court in the fourth round of the Roland Garros against Rafael Nadal. Still a relative unknown, it was a shock to some that Soderling had even made it that far. A few hours later, Soderling was still in the draw and Nadal was not. After four years of dominance, the King of Clay had been stopped.
Robin Soderling has made the finals in the past two years but has never won. Will the third time be the charm?
Unfortunately, Soderling is in the same bracket as Nadal, who no doubt will be looking to avoid another upset. Will Nadal be too good for Soderling?
Prediction on how far Soderling will go: Quarterfinals
Andy Murray
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It's been a long time since anyone in England thought Andy Murray had what it took to bring home a Grand Slam. Murray has made it to finals in two Grand Slams (Australia and US Open), but hasn't found any success in Paris. Could this year be different?
Murray has the skills to play with the top five, and although remains highly-ranked, he's been unable to beat the top three (Nadal, Djokovic and Federer). Murray has a fairly easy draw this year, but will run into Nadal if they both make it to the semifinals.
Prediction on how far Murray will go: Semifinals
Roger Federer
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Roger Federer was recently considered by many as the greatest player of all time. With 16 Grand Slams, and multiple records, if anyone knows what it takes to win a Grand Slam, it's Federer. Federer has won on every surface during his career, does he have what it takes to win one more on the red clay?
Many are starting to wonder if Federer's age is catching up to him. At 29, he's been unable to keep up with Nadal and Djokovic recently. In the last two tournaments, Federer has been ousted in the semifinals, with Nadal and Djokovic playing in the final. Federer will need an extra step to reach the finals and add the 2011 French Open Trophy to his collection.
Federer has what it takes, but the red clay is not his forte. He has only won once in Paris, and that was in the year Nadal was upset. It will take a lot out of Federer to win in Paris.
Prediction on how far Federer will go: Semifinals
Novak Djokovic
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If it weren't for the ranking system, Djokovic would be the final player on the list because of his current dominance (he's riding a 40-game win streak). The Djoker hasn't just been beating up on scrubs, and has ousted Nadal on clay in two consecutive tournaments now.
Djokovic is the favorite to win among many, but I personally disagree (although my love for Nadal might play a role in that decision). I agree that Djokovic is a force to be reckoned with, and I'm looking forward to the possibility of a Nadal-Djokovic final. It would be a great match, and might signal a "changing of the guard", just as when Sampras lost to Federer and Federer lost to Nadal.
Djokovic has proven that he can win a Grand Slam, taking home the trophy twice in Australia, but a win in Paris would prove that Djokovic is a dynamic player who can win on multiple surfaces. A win at the Roland Garros for Djokovic would be similar to Nadal's first Wimbledon, when he showed the world that he could win outside of Paris.
Djokovic's "lack" of success in the last two years in Paris can be overlooked due to his recent victories in Madrid and Rome. Will he step up to the plate and win his first French Open?
Prediction on how far Djokovic will go: Final
Rafael Nadal
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Rafael Nadal, The King of Clay, has been unstoppable in Paris over the past six years (with the exception of 2009). Nadal has won five out of the six Roland Garros trophies since 2005. Can he go six for seven in this year's final?
As the year progressed, my doubts have grown. An early exit in Australia raised questions, but can be written off as an off week. Nadal got back on his horse (after a short injury break) and won in Monte Carlo and Barcelona.
After Barcelona, the real doubts came into play. In the next two tournaments, Nadal lost to Djokovic twice on his best surface. After the loss in Madrid, I was mildly nervous, but after the loss in Rome I sincerely began to believe that Nadal's reign as "King of Clay" might be coming to an end.
Nadal's marathon match with John Isner this morning did nothing to allay these fears. Although Isner is a respectable player, Nadal should never have faced a 5th set scenario against an American on clay. Isner played a heck of a game and Nadal was not at his best, but Nadal needs to realize playing a match like that against a more experienced player will cost him the trophy.
Prediction on how far Nadal will go: Final
The Championship Match
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Unfortunately, I think the picture above is very similar to what we'll see at the tournament's conclusion on June 5th. As much as I hope Nadal will be able to step his game up and beat Djokovic, I don't think he can stop him. It's very rare in tennis for a player to be as dominant as Djokovic has been recently, and I don't think Nadal has what it takes right now.
The final will likely be remembered for ages to come. I predict a five-set match that will end with Djokovic on the floor and Nadal in despair.
Prediction on who will win: Novak Djokovic
Sleeper Pick: Alexandr Dolgopolov
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My sleeper pick in this years Roland Garros is Alexandr Dolgopolov. The Ukrainian 22-year old surprised the crowds in Melbourne with wins over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga as well as Robin Soderling.
Dolgopolov is young and has tons of energy. If he can control his energy and stay focused for two weeks, I think he could make a serious run at the Roland Garros.
Hopefully he makes things interesting, and hopefully this year's Roland Garros will be one to be remembered.
Thanks for reading.
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