College Basketball: Statistical Predictions for Top 15 Freshmen in the Country

The end of the NBA and NHL slates and most of football season stand between now and the beginning of the 2011-12 college basketball season, but it's never too early to start making predictions about how things might shake out.

This is particularly true when looking at the top incoming freshmen. Now that the final field of early entrants for the 2011 NBA draft is set, we have a better idea of who players like Anthony Davis and Austin Rivers will have to compete with for playing time and productivity.

Let's have a look, then, at how the top 15 prep stars, as ranked by Scout.com, will fare in their first—and perhaps only–seasons on the collegiate level.

1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky

Anthony Davis figures to be a big part of any success the Kentucky Wildcats have during the 2011-12 season.

The top-ranked prep player in the country will have to compete with sophomore star Terrence Jones, who decided to pull his name out of the NBA draft pool, but, with Josh Harrellson gone to graduation and the 'Cats frontline being pretty thin overall, Davis should be good for around 10 points, eight rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game as a freshman. 

2. Austin Rivers, Duke

Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is notorious for holding back star freshman from becoming one-and-dones, though he evidently failed to do so with Kyrie Irving, who will likely be the first player taken in the upcoming draft.

He may have similar trouble keeping Austin Rivers in Durham for much longer than that, as the son of Boston Celtics coach Doc Rivers should be able to put up 13 points, four rebounds and four assists for the Blue Devils, with only Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry ahead of him in Duke's backcourt rotation as far as experience is concerned.

3. Quincy Miller, Baylor

Quincy Miller would be an immediate impact-type player at just about any school in the country, with the kind of size and skill to average a double-double as a freshman.

However, at Baylor, where Miller will play his college ball, he'll be lucky to net seven points and four boards per game playing behind Perry Jones, Quincy Acy and J'Mison "Bobo" Morgan.

4. James McAdoo, North Carolina

The rich will get richer this fall when North Carolina, fresh off an appearance in the Elite Eight and with Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller and John Henson returning to school, will welcome the addition of prep star James McAdoo.

The nephew of former Tar Heels standout and Hall of Famer Bob McAdoo is capable of much more than just the eight points and five rebounds he's likely to accrue per game, but the aforementioned trio of returning forwards will make it difficult for McAdoo to see much more than bench duty, though that worked out pretty well for one Marvin Williams not too long ago.

5. Mike Gilchrist, Kentucky

Plainly speaking, Mike Gilchrist has a chance to be among the most productive freshmen in the country at Kentucky.

The swingman out of the famed St. Patrick's program in New Jersey figures to fill in perfectly for the departed DeAndre Liggins, though Gilchrist's offensive skills are already more noteworthy than Liggins' ever were for the Wildcats.

As such, it's not all that unreasonable to expect Gilchrist to contribute 14 points, seven rebounds and two assists on a nightly basis.

6. Brad Beal, Florida

There's no doubt that Brad Beal is capable of being a sensational scorer for the Florida Gators, a team coming off an SEC regular season title and an appearance in the Elite Eight.

However, he'll likely have to bide his time behind Erving Walker and, more directly, Kenny Boynton who, like Beal, arrived in Gainesville as an undersized scoring machine.

That being said, Beal's freshman contributions—nine points, two rebounds, two assists—will still be worth watching this season.

7. Marquis Teague, Kentucky

No one in the realm of college basketball stands to benefit more from the early defection of Brandon Knight than Marquis Teague.

The younger brother of Atlanta Hawks guard Jeff Teague is a tremendous talent in his own right and should be more than capable of chipping in 12 points, four rebounds and five assists per game with the reigns of the Kentucky offense firmly in his grasp.

8. LeBryan Nash, Oklahoma State

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are on the precipice of doing some big things under head coach Travis Ford, and LeBryan Nash looks like the missing piece of the puzzle to put the Pokes over the top.

The high-flying wing from Dallas should be good for 11 points, six rebounds and two assists while picking up the slack left behind by graduated senior Marshall Moses.

9. Adonis Thomas, Memphis

Like Nash at Oklahoma State, Adonis Thomas should play a prominent role in launching Memphis back to the top of Conference USA under head coach Josh Pastner.

The 6'6" wing is a local product whose athleticism and ability to board should net him something in the neighborhood of 7.5 points, six boards and an assist while playing in support of Will Barton, Wesley Witherspoon and Tarik Black.

10. Myck Kabongo, Texas

The Texas Longhorns are in desperate need of some leadership at the point now that Cory Joseph, Dogus Balbay and Jai Lucas are all gone, for one reason or another.

Enter Myck Kabongo, the Canadian guard whose skills as a true point should land him as a starter in Austin from day one, from which vantage point he should easily be able to rack up 10 points, 3.5 rebounds and six assists per game.

11. Kentavious Caldwell, Georgia

Kentavious Caldwell's arrival in Athens will be a much-welcomed occasion for Georgia head coach Mark Fox.

With Travis Leslie gone to the NBA, the Bulldogs will rely on Caldwell, a Georgia native and noted sharpshooter, to chip in nine points, three rebounds and an assist or two for good measure.

12. Cody Zeller, Indiana

The 2011-12 season is shaping up to be a big one for Tom Crean's Hoosiers, who have quietly been stockpiling talent while wading through defeat after defeat during the former Marquette coach's first three years in Bloomington.

Indiana now has a solid core of talent to lead the program back its winning ways, to which Cody Zeller will be a welcome addition. The younger brother of UNC star Tyler Zeller is a skilled big man who can score in a number of ways, all of which should get him in the neighborhood of 11 points, five rebounds and two assists per contest.

13. Branden Dawson, Michigan State

Branden Dawson will undoubtedly play a significant part in the forthcoming bounce-back campaign for Michigan State, which suffered through a highly disappointing 2010-11 season.

Dawson's dynamic athleticism and long arms should play perfectly on a Spartans squad in search of a replacement for the graduated Durrell Summers and the dismissed Chris Allen.

Hence, don't be surprised if Dawson contributes nine points and seven rebounds as a freshman for Tom Izzo.

14. Khem Birch, Pitt

The Pittsburgh Panthers should once again be in the thick of things at the top of the Big East thanks to the timely addition of Khem Birch.

The big man out of Notre Dame Prep has drawn comparisons to Derrick Favors, which bodes well for Jamie Dixon and company, who are in search of an athletic rebounder and defender who can ably fill in for the departed Gary McGhee.

Though somewhat limited offensively, Birch should be dependable enough to add eight points, eight boards and a block or two to Pitt's winning ways as a frosh.

15. Josiah Turner, Arizona

The decision by Lamont "MoMo" Jones to transfer from Arizona was no accident. Clearly, he saw the writing on the wall after Josiah Turner faxed his national letter of intent to coach Sean Miller's office.

Turner, who hails from Sacramento, is a dynamic point man who does his best work when attacking the basket and should have plenty of opportunity to do so now that Jones and Derrick Williams have left Tucson for good.

Thus, it would not be unreasonable to expect Turner to contribute something in the neighborhood of 10 points, four rebounds and four assists as a starter for the reigning Pac-10 champs.