French Open: Little-Known Gael Monfils and Alexandr Dolgopolov to Meet in Final

None of the likely suspects—Not Novak Djokovic, not Roger Federer, not Rafael Nadal will win the French Open. In fact, not one of the top seeds will make it to the finals.

This may come as a shock to fans that have been watching the recent dominance of those three players over the last few years, but the French Open has a history of unknowns showing up for the finals.

In 2004, Gaston Gaudio, who was ranked 44^th in the world, made it to the finals and took home the trophy.  Other than Roland Garros, Gaudio  hasn’t made it past the 3^rd round in a grand slam.

In 2005, unseeded Mariano Puerta faced Rafael Nadal in the finals but couldn’t edge out the win. And in 2002, Albert Costa achieved victory, and he hasn’t made it past the quarterfinals in any other slam.

With the field set for this year’s French Open, shake-ups in the bottom of the draw look quite possible.

24 year-old Frenchman Gael Monfils, ranked number nine, has always shown promise and will be champion of this year’s French Open. He is probably the fastest man on tour, and his athleticism is off the charts.

Monfils has no tough competition until the round of sixteen, where he could face David Ferrer. At 29, Ferrer is starting to creep up in age, but he has some quality wins this year.

Ferrer beat Nadal in the Australian Open and Nicolas Almagro on clay. His record is 16-4 this year on clay. Although those are good numbers, Ferrer has never made it past the quarterfinals at the French, and the last time he made it to the quarterfinals was in 2008.

The reason Monfils is a tough matchup for Ferrer is that they have similar games. Both Ferrer and Monfils are in excellent shape, but Monfils has the advantage of being younger and quicker. In addition, Monfils’ power can sometimes overwhelm opponents like Ferrer.

Of the three times Monfils and Ferrer have met, Monfils has come away victorious twice. In 2008, Monfils played Ferrer in the quarterfinals of the French, and Monfils won pretty easily (6-3, 3-6, 6-3,6-1). Last year, he played Ferrer at the Davis Cup, defeating him in five sets.

Monfils hasn’t played much this year but he has a record of 9-5.  In an April warm-up tournament prior to the French, he beat Richard Gasquet on clay in straight sets. Gasquet is another French player favored to win Roland Garros.

When Monfils reaches the quarterfinals, he will likely play Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Roger Federer. Federer beat Tsonga in this year’s warm-up tournament before the French in Italy in straight sets. However, Federer lost to Gasquet and as I said before, Monfils has beaten Gasquet this year.

Clay is not one of Federer’s favorite surfaces. This year he has posted a 6-3 record on the surface.

Federer and Monfils have played six times, and only once has Monfils come away victorious. The pertinent fact, however, is that Monfils won the last time the two players faced each other. Monfils racked up a 7-6,6-7,7-6 victory in Paris last year.

Monfils’ Achilles heel is his consistency. With steady play, he can stand up to the best. Consistency and youth helped Monfils defeat Federer in their last encounter.

In the semi-finals, Monfils will almost certainly have to play the hottest player on the tour, Novak Djokovic. True, Monfils has never beaten Djokovic, but he has only played him once on clay, and two out of the three sets went to a tiebreak.

Djokovic is playing very well right now, but that doesn’t mean he is superman. If Monfils can shorten the points and avoid slipping into a baseline game, he has a chance.

You heard it here first: Monfils will reach the finals. The final is expected to include Nadal, but that will not be the case. Instead, Alexandr Dolgopolov will lose to Gael Monfils in the final.

In 2010, Dolgopolov was ranked 48 in the world. This year, he is 23^rd. At 23, Dolgopolov is a young up and comer. He made himself known to tennis fans at the Australian Open last year, reaching the quarterfinals. With his flashes of brilliance, he finally lost to Andy Murray in four sets.

In this year’s French Open, Dolgopolov will not have any trouble advancing until he faces a familiar grand slam foe, Andy Murray in the third round. This time it will be a different story.

Except for the Australian Open, Murray doesn’t have many quality wins this year, but he does have a lot of bad losses. He hasn’t defeated a ranked opponent since Australia, and he has had disappointing losses to Alex Bogomolov and Donald Young in the first round of different tournaments.

Dolgopolov has one of the best baseline games in tennis, which is why clay fits him so well. In his first set against Murray at last year’s Australian Open, Dolgopolov played a very good baseline game, but after a while, he tried shortening the points. He needs to be patient and steady to take away the victory.

When Dolgopolov reaches the quarters, Nicolas Almagro will be his biggest threat. Almagro beats the players he is expected to trounce and loses to higher ranked players. Almagro is seeded above Dolgopolov, but Dolgopolov’s strong ground strokes should give him an edge.

Dolgopolov is a long shot, but sometimes, you must go with your gut. Nadal is clearly favored over Dolgopolov.

In the two matches Nadal and Dolgopolov have played, Nadal has not dropped a single set.  However, Nadal is no longer seen as invincible after losing two straight finals on clay to Djokovic this year. Dolgopolov is on the rise, and if he gains confidence, anything is possible.

When Dolgopolov reaches the finals, he will lose to Gael Monfils. They have never played each other, but Monfils has the advantage in terms of strength and speed. Monfils has great talent, but sometimes he fakes injuries and gives up. If he wins his first few matches, he will gain momentum.

The telling match will be against David Ferrer, his first real challenge. Once he wins that match, he will have the will to win it all. With the second slam of the 2011 season going to Gael Monfils, who knows what will happen.

Tennis fans love an underdog and this year, they will have something to cheer about.