2011 Preakness Stakes: Preview and Selections

The 136th running of the Preakness Stakes is nearly 24 hours away.  (That is of course, if you don't believe that some kind of weird thing will happen to prevent this race from happening?)

Animal Kingdom will go off as the deserving favorite, and will lead the charge along with 13 other horses to try and capture the second jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown.

Now for a bit of history, if you will, on wagering in the Preakness.

In the last 20 years of the Kentucky Derby, we have had four favorites, at post time, end up winning the race:  Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Smarty Jones (2004), and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000).  All of these winners since the year 2000. 

On the flip side, we have also seen 10 horses go off at 10-to-1 odds or greater and roll home as Kentucky Derby champions:  Lil E Tee (1992), Sea Hero (1993), Thunder Gulch (1995), Charismatic (1999), Monarchos (2001), War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Mine That Bird (2009), and just this year, Animal Kingdom.

In the last 20 years of the Preakness Stakes, we have had 10 favorites, at post time, end up winning the race and a single horse go off at odds of 10-to-1 or greater, that won.  That single horse was the much overlooked Bernardini back in 2006. 

In the last 20 years, the Preakness Stakes winner has gone off at odds of 6-to-1 or less and won 16 times.  The only four Preakness winners over the past 20 years that went off at odds greater than 6-to-1 are:  Hansel (1991), Louis Quatorze (1996), Charismatic (1999), and Bernardini (2006). 

So, while you may be looking for a "shot" to overcome Animal Kingdom in his run towards the Triple Crown, keep in mind that the Preakness Stakes has been a race ran more according to form and much more accommodating to favorites.  And if the favorite doesn't win, it will likely be a horse at 6-to-1 odds or less.

So with that said, lets take a look at the entrants in this year's full field:

1.  Astrology (15/1):  This nicely bred newcomer to the Triple Crown series has the fantastic Steve Asumussen barn at his side along with Mike Smith as his jockey.  He has yet to finish off the board in his seven career starts and shows a very nice stalking pattern amongst his past performances.  He could have run in the Kentucky Derby, but his connections felt it better to run in the Grade II Jerome at Aqueduct and point him towards this particular race.

Finishing second in his last three races is troubling.  However, he has ran against some of the best three-year-olds of this year's crop, and his post position gives him a very nice place to let his natural stalking abilities unfold.  Not a likely winner, but be wary if leaving him out of exotic tickets.

2.  Norman Asbjornson (30/1):  An odd horse that really doesn't seem to fit.  His pattern has been to get close to the lead, if not in the lead, yet he was ridden well back in the Wood Memorial.  His connections were obviously looking to pounce, on a hotter pace, out Uncle Mo in that one.  When the race started to fall apart, Norman wasn't nearly good enough to contend down the stretch.

Hard to ignore his two wins at a mile or more, but he just doesn't have that late speed of foot that will be needed in this race.  A repeat fourth-place performance like he had in the Wood would be rather shocking.  Way better wagering options available in this race for a horse that looks like a lesser distance will be his future.

3.  King Congie (20/1):  Very interesting colt at 20-to-1 odds that has shown improvement in every single race he has run.  His only graded stakes race effort in the Bluegrass is more than commendable as he finished third by a head in a three-horse photo finish.  The big question is if he can run on dirt.

If we learned anything, we can't keep these supposed Turf/Poly horse specialists out because they haven't shown a propensity to run on dirt.  In his four races run at two turns (a mile or more), he has three first-places and a third-place.  That is very tough to overlook.

He has run against some of the best three-year-olds in the country and we should full well expect a solid effort this Saturday.  The big problem is that he is a closer and he isn't the best closer in the race.  He'll need to change up his game a bit and will likely need to be closer to the lead than Dialed In or Animal Kingdom if he expects to cross the finish line first.  That is some odd ground to tread upon with some much better stalkers and pacesetters in this race than he has ever seen before. 

Very attractive at 20-to-1, but tread lightly on an across-the-board-type wager.

4.  Flashpoint (20/1):  Amazing how a distance limited three-year-old gets huge hype over a blistering win around seven furlongs.  Such was the case when Flashpoint blew away his foes in Grade II Hutcheson back in February at a speed-biased track at Gulfstream.

Little over a month later, reality set in as Flashpoint dropped a clunker in the Florida Derby.  He couldn't challenge for the lead and faded down the stretch without much of an excuse for running poorly.

Now he gets a second chance—gets a nice inside position to take the lead from the start and will be fully expected to race for the lead.  If he isn't at or on the lead at four furlongs, he simply has no chance.  His suspect breeding alone, brings up questions about the mile and 3/16ths. If he isn't leading by six lengths or more after a mile (which he won't) then the likelihood of him even hitting the board is close to zero.

I like that his connections are putting him in this race solely due to the anemic pace of the Kentucky Derby, but he looks like nothing more than a rabbit.

5.  Shackleford (12/1):  He has no excuses for not at least finishing in the top three of the Kentucky Derby.  He got the lead with some unbelievably slow fractions and wasn't even close to sealing the deal as he lugged home down the stretch.  Those who believe the 1/2 furlong less will fall into his favor are terribly mistaken. 

He has passed a single horse in his lifetime to date, and if he isn't on the lead he will simply be forgotten in the final furlong.  He is a very nice colt that will do much better at a distance of a mile later this summer.  Worthy of a wager on the bottom of trifectas and superfectas—but to see him finishing in the top two looks to be very unexpected.  Especially after a short two-week layoff in which he simply gave his all in finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby.

6.  Sway Away (15/1):  I called Animal Kingdom the wise guy horse in the Derby.  Sway Away may well be the wise guy horse in the Preakness.  He should get a nice stalking/closing position between the known stalkers and known closers in this race.  His biggest problem is that his two efforts at a mile or more aren't all that impressive. 

However, his breeding suggests he can improve off of those efforts to be a much bigger factor than he was at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes.  He was training well at Churchill, and his connections felt he was good enough to take a run in the Kentucky Derby.  Now that he is one of the freshest horses in the race, he has a bit of an advantage this time around. 

If you are looking for the fifth horse in the last 20 years to win at odds of 10-to-1 or more in the Preakness, this is likely your choice.  While I think he'll run well, I just can't see him overtaking others that are simply much better.  He could fill out a nice exacta on the back end, and should not be left off of any exotic tickets.

7.  Midnight Interlude (15/1):  Bob Baffert has a lot of faith in this horse to turn him back two weeks after a dismal effort in the Kentucky Derby.  He has had an aggressive three-year-old campaign mainly due to not having raced as a two-year-old.  It was also progressed by the fact he didn't break his maiden until his third race this year back in March.

His stalking effort in the Santa Anita Derby looked nice two weeks ago, but now looks rather pedestrian.  I fully look for Baffert to send Midnight Interlude closer to the lead this time around, since he absolutely did not like any traffic whatsoever in the Derby.  Not sure he has enough speed of foot early to get close enough to be a factor to win.  However, he will be yet another horse creating traffic up front for others to pass down the lane and could create some "bunching" of the field coming into the final turn.

8.  Dance City (12/1):  Along with Flashpoint, this is the other new entry that will look to create a much livelier pace in the Preakness than we saw in the Kentucky Derby.  Lightly raced, this colt really hasn't run a bad race in all four of his starts.  Also keep in mind, all four starts have been at a mile or more.

Between Flashpoint, Shackleford, and Dance City, he is the most likely to chase on after a solid pace that is set up front. 

He ran into some problems in the Arkansas Derby, but you should fully expect a better effort down the stretch this time around.  Another wise guy horse that could set up well with a pace-setting/stalker type style that can push the pace and actually pass horses in the stretch. 

I don't think he can win, but he will likely be the guy setting the table for the rest and could easily fill out the bottom of trifectas and superfectas.

9.  Mucho Macho Man (6/1):  He fits on a ton of angles for a Preakness winner—stalker, improving, and ran well in the Kentucky Derby.  He ran his normal race in the Kentucky Derby and actually was closing in the stretch.

Look for him to settle in around fourth or fifth early, as he has shown a solid amount of tactical speed in his career.  I'd also look for Maragh and his connections to send him a bit earlier this time around as they saw the maturity of his growth in his third-place finish in the Derby.

Stalking throughout a decent pace and taking the lead near the quarter pole could be a winning combination for Mucho Macho Man.  At 6-to-1 odds, he should be a very logical choice for win honors this time around. 

10.  Dialed In (9/2):  The pathetic pace in the Kentucky Derby gave this deep closer absolutely no chance of winning.  Don't count his effort two weeks ago as a poor one to make you think he isn't good enough to win this time around. 

He ran the second best final four furlongs at Churchill, and had to weave in and out of trouble throughout to finish a solid eighth.  While you may laugh at his eighth-place finish in the Derby, just last year the best three-year-old finished sixth in the Derby only to roll back and win the Preakness (Lookin' At Lucky). 

I have no doubts that the pace will be much faster, and that Dialed In will be much closer to the lead in Baltimore after six furlongs.  After all, the best thing for the best horse is a smaller field.  And while we have a full field expected in the Preakness, it isn't close to running against 18 others.

I'm wagering against him to win on W/P/S bets, but I can't leave him off of the top in the exotics.  Dangerous, dangerous horse that is fully backed by a confident Nick Zito. 

11.  Animal Kingdom (2/1):  Simply brilliant performance in the Kentucky Derby in which horse and jockey were in complete tune.  He didn't get the best trip, but Velazquez was able to maximize a traffic-troubled trip magnificently.  His two-and-one-half length win was much better than we all saw at the finish.  The riding and weaving that was needed to get him there was as good as Calvin Borel's ride on Mine That Bird or Street Sense from recent Derby's past.

No doubt that this is the horse to beat.  He may be the most versatile horse in all the world.  Not only can he run on dirt, grass, and poly, but he can be a front-runner, stalker, and closer.  His versatility alone makes him an almost no-brainer to include on each and every level of your exotic tickets.

In my heart, I'll be rooting for Animal Kingdom to win, but in my wallet I have to wager against him.  Unless he goes off at 3-to-1 or better, I can't wager on him to win.  Too many strange things happen in big races like this to take the risk for a horse that "might" (I stress might) have bubbled and looking for a bounce effort two weeks later.

12.  Isn't He Perfect (30/1):  Thirty to one?  Should be 200-to-1.  Maybe more.  Twelve lifetime starts, and only two wins and a third to his credit.  In his three graded stakes races, his best finish was fifth.  We know what this guy can do, and it isn't much.  Should be entered on some allowance card running for a $30,000 total purse.  I get that owners like to say they had a horse in a Triple Crown race, but this is absurdly ridiculous.

Pimlico and the Preakness execs should disallow horses like this to even run in the race.  Only thing he can do is get in the way of other horses that can win.

13.  Concealed Identity (30/1):  Opposed to Isn't He Perfect, this is the kind of horse that belongs in this race at big odds.  A local favorite that has won his last two races at the track.  Edmond Gaudet is an 80-year-old trainer who has done the good work over his lifetime to earn this reward.  He also has a one-eyed colt that is more than ready to take on the challenge of the "shippers" into his home track.

If Disney were to set the stage for an upset of all upsets, this might be it.

While it looks completely unbelievable that this horse can win, much less hit the board, the comfort of the track, and the full out effort this team and jockey will put into this horse make him very playable on exotics.  Laugh all you want, but while the Preakness has been known to be chalky on top, it is also known to have some bombers on the bottom.

I know I won't keep this guy out of many trifectas or superfectas.  I'll also use him in some exactas as well.

14.  Mr Commons (20/1):  Well, if you don't like Midnight Interlude, it is hard to like a horse out of California coming out of the 14 hole with serious distance questions. 

Artie Schiller, his pops, was a great miler—on grass.  I think John Shireffs is a great trainer, and I think this is worth a shot for a horse that has shown an ability to close, but he is in over his head.  He couldn't close better than Midnight Interlude and actually regressed in the Santa Anita Derby.  Now he gets an awful post in which he has to rate somewhere into a stalking position to even be effective amongst a bunch of other horses, outside of Dialed In and Animal Kingdom, that will work to get close to the lead?

Bad spot, bad draw, and my likely candidate to finish dead last.

How I see the race breaking down:

We all saw the sad pace of the Kentucky Derby.  That will not happen again in this race.  Flashpoint, Shackleford, and Dance City will all press for the lead.  Flashpoint likely gets the best of it through the first four furlongs.

With a 46:2 pace over four furlongs, and a field of front-runners and stalkers making their way, we get a solid six furlongs in 1:10.3.   Dialed In and Animal Kingdom will start rounding up from the back of the pack as we reach a mile in 1:35 and change. 

Shackleford takes a nose in front for a brief period but the stalker in Mucho Macho Man takes over with less than a furlong to go.  He stretches his lead as Animal Kingdom, followed by Dialed In, make their huge stretch runs.  One of them gives up chase to save their horse for a better day and a shot that is whipping his horse along grabs a late third-place finish.

WIN:  Mucho Macho Man.

EXACTA:  Mucho Macho Man boxed with Animal Kingdom and Dialed In.

TRIFECTA:  Mucho, Animal, and Dialed on top with Dance City and maybe Concealed Identity in the two hole, with all those horses on the bottom with Astrology and Sway Away.

SUPERFECTA:  Single Mucho Macho Man on top with Animal, Dialed, Dance, Concealed, Astrology, and Sway in the two, three, and four holes.  Switch out Mucho on a couple of tickets if need be.

LONG SHOT:  Sway Away.

Good luck.