Preakness Preview: Can Animal Kingdom Continue His Run to a Triple Crown?

If you had asked me the day after the Kentucky Derby if I thought Animal Kingdom would win the Preakness, I would have told you that it wasn't possible. 

Looking at the rundown of horses in the race, however, I think he has a shot.

Before I summarize that argument, allow me to point out a couple horses not running in the Preakness: Nehro, Uncle Mo and Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty.

This is not to say I have a whole lot of faith in Nehro, but he was with Animal Kingdom until the very end of the Derby. Had it been a shorter race like the Preakness, he may have held on.

Uncle Mo was pulled from the Derby after being the favorite, and now isn't running the Preakness either. He is still feeling pain from injuries and infections that caused him to pull out of the Derby.

As for Plum Pretty, there really was never much speculation about her running the race this Saturday. 

The absence of these three is highly beneficial to Animal Kingdom—11 of the 14 horses in the Preakness are at least 10-1 shots, with six of those coming at 20-1 or worse. 

Not exactly stiff competition.

John Velazquez will be on Animal Kingdom again, disproving the minimal speculation that he may leap onto Uncle Mo (of course, that decision may have been made easier given that he's not running).

Animal Kingdom is the morning-line favorite at 2-1. 

His fellow Derby contenders running include Midnight Interlude, Shackleford, Dialed In, and Mucho Macho Man. Dialed In was one of the favorites in the Derby, I believe being a 4-1, but wound up finishing eighth. 

Midnight Interlude—trained by Bob Baffert—finished 16th, disappointing spectators much like Dialed In. 

Animal Kingdom's biggest competition is going to be Mucho Macho Man. He was able to spring five-wide in the final stretch of the Derby and finished third. Had he been able to break from the pack a little sooner, he would have caught Animal Kingdom. 

The Preakness is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby, so if Mucho Macho Man wishes to win, he'll need to break sooner.

A possible "x-factor" is going to be King Congie, coming out of the third spot at 20-1 odds.

He hasn't won since his New Year's Day victory in the Tropical Park Derby, but his jockey is Robby Albarado. The horse may not be the most talented in the race, but Albarado is seeking to beat Animal Kingdom after being deemed incapable of riding him in the Derby. He'd been kicked in the face by a horse early Friday before the Derby, and was replaced by Velazquez. 

How he responds will be interesting to see.

My Prediction: Mucho Macho Man wins the Preakness over Animal Kingdom by a single length. Trainer Kathy Ritvo is going to make sure that Rajiv Maragh—the jockey—knows to break the horse to the outside sooner, so as to break off that amazing speed at the right time. 

My top four rundown:

1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Animal Kingdom
3. Midnight Interlude
4. King Congie