2011 NBA Mock Draft: Analyzing Expert Picks from Around the Web
Yesterday, fellow FC and my former editor Joel C. Cordes published a slideshow featuring the order of the 2011 NBA draft and each team's needs. He then, with the help of Michael Schottey, went on to basically predict which player would be taken at each selection based on the needs of the teams at each position.
While I have a great deal of respect for Joel and Mike (I mean, they ARE two of the biggest reasons I'm writing here), I am also an NBA fan who loves to stir the debate pot. I have found myself glued to every NBA draft since 1999 and consider myself an enthusiast, so what better time than now to analyze Joel and Mike's predictions?
Let's go through each of their predictions for the first round and analyze them, one by one, regarding each team's biggest need.
With the NBA Draft approaching, NBA Mock Draft season is here. Stay tuned to Bleacher Report for updated mock drafts, along with the latest NBA Draft news, analysis, rumors and predictions.
No. 1: Cleveland Cavaliers
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From the very beginning, it has been assumed that Duke point guard Kyrie Irving would be the first player taken in this year's draft. With the Cleveland Cavaliers having the first pick and Irving being the best player available, it seems pretty obvious what's going to happen here.
However, as Mike pointed out, the Cavs already have two solid point guards in Baron Davis and Ramon Sessions. In reality, their bigger need is at forward. Yet, Irving is stellar enough of a talent that he could be worth the point guard controversy.
Given how Arizona forward Derrick Williams will also be available, I wouldn't be shocked to see if Cleveland takes him over the highly touted Irving to fill a greater need in the frontcourt.
Still, as Mike put it, Irving is an "immediate and long-term upgrade" and could probably turn the franchise around quicker than Williams could.
Yet, I'm still going to pick the Cavs to take Williams. Sorry, Kyrie.
No. 2: Minnesota Timberwolves
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With Irving presumably off the board at this point, the next best player available is Derrick Williams. Naturally, Joel and Mike picked the Timberwolves to take him as the team "needs a swingman badly." While the team does need that, it needs a point guard more.
While Williams will be a solid contributor wherever he goes, I just can't see how he fits into Minnesota's lineup at this point. Both forward spots are occupied by Kevin Love and Michael Beasley so unless the latter is on his way out, the Arizona star will be coming off the bench with no guarantee on how many minutes he'll play.
Thus, I'm going to propose this outrageous notion. I believe that the Minnesota Timberwolves will look to trade this pick to a team that can provide them with a top point guard or at least a lower draft position where the odds of taking a good point man are decent.
No. 3: Utah Jazz
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The Utah Jazz have needs at every position. However, the team's biggest needs are at forward and center what with Andrei Kirilenko and C.J. Miles likely to walk. That being said, I was curious to learn that Joel and Mike picked UConn standout Kemba Walker to be the Jazz's pick.
Don't get me wrong, I love Walker, but he's the type of player who needs to play every day with significant minutes in order to be effective. Given how Devin Harris will be the starting point guard in Utah for a few more years, Walker to Utah has bust written all over it. Rather, here is how I see the No. 3 pick going down.
I think that the Jazz front office will move Paul Millsap to small forward and Al Jefferson to power forward, and finally use the third overall pick on Turkish phenom Enes Kanter. This young man has great size at 6'11" and 272 pounds and could be a great presence in the middle for Utah. However, he will only be 19 once the season starts, so fans will have to be patient with him.
No. 4: Cleveland Cavaliers
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The fourth pick in the NBA draft also belongs to the Cleveland Cavaliers and at this point, I really can't effectively predict what will be done with it. It all depends on what the team does with the first pick.
Joel and Mike figured that the Cavs would use this pick to take either point guard Brandon Knight out of Kentucky or Czech forward Jan Vesely. In all honesty, I'm going to agree with them on this one. Depending on how the first pick goes, either Knight or Vesely would be beneficial to the Cavaliers.
On to the fifth pick!
No. 5: Toronto Raptors
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If I may be perfectly blunt, the Toronto Raptors are a complete and utter mess. They have no leader, are a young and inexperienced team and just looked BAD last season. Mike and Joel pegged the team's biggest need to be at center/power forward. Once again, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree.
The Raptors already have two viable options at both positions in Andrea Bargnani and second-year player Ed Davis, who will improve upon his average rookie campaign. Instead, the team needs to invest in a surefire small forward. While the article published yesterday had Toronto taking Lithuanian center Jonas Valanciunas, I'm going to make a bolder prediction: Jan Vesely if he's available.
Vesely would be a great improvement over Toronto's current options at small forward and isn't as much of a liability as Linas Kleiza. If he's available, the Raptors would be wise to give the talented forward a shot.
No. 6: Washington Wizards
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The Washington Wizards have a fine young point guard in John Wall, last year's No. 1 pick. That being said, I was caught off guard when Joel and Mike predicted the Wizards would take Brandon Knight to be his backup. I'm sorry, but Knight is the type of player who will be a starter in the NBA.
Unless the Wizards are planning to let Nick Young walk and move Wall to shooting guard, I'm having a hard time understanding this prediction.
Rather, I believe the Wizards will use the draft to fill holes at shooting guard or small forward, specifically in Jordan Hamilton. The former Texas Longhorn has great potential and could be a top producer in coach Flip Saunders's system.
No. 7: Sacramento Kings
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With the Sacramento Kings, it's a safe bet that they'll draft a center or a point guard. Samuel Dalembert will probably sign with another team, and Beno Udrih is better suited as a shooting guard. Mike and Joel predicted that the team would stick with defense and draft Bismack Biyombo out of Spain, Donatas Motiejunas from Benetton Treviso or Kawhi Leonard out of San Diego State.
I'll agree with them on the two centers but don't think that Leonard will be a good fit in Sacramento. He's simply too small to play power forward in the NBA. Rather, I think that the Kings will gamble on Kemba Walker if they choose the point guard route over defense.
As I have said many times before, the Kings are a team that needs a leader. Given Connecticut's performance in the NCAA tournament, Walker is an ideal candidate to fill that void.
No. 8: Detroit Pistons
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Going into this offseason, the Pistons are probably going to lose Tayshaun Prince. That will leave a glaring hole on defense and the team must use the draft to fill it.
Mike and Joel predicted that the front office would take Biyombo and immediately bring back the dominant defensive presence that Ben Wallace once possessed. While I agree that Biyombo would be a solid pick for Detroit, I don't believe that he's the best man to replace Prince. If that's what the new ownership wants to do, then Jordan Hamilton is the best man for the job.
Keep in mind, Hamilton averaged 18.6 points and 7.7 rebounds for Texas last year. He has good size at 6'7" and 220 pounds and if he's available, he has the potential to become a star in the Motor City.
No. 9: Charlotte Bobcats
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Going into next season, the Charlotte Bobcats need to find a replacement for Gerald Wallace, who was traded to the Portland Trail Blazers at the trade deadline. Yet, Mike and Joel have the team picking shooter Alec Burks out of Colorado. While I do agree that Burks will be a lottery pick, I don't see him going to Charlotte.
Rather, I see Gerald Henderson going back to the bench, Stephen Jackson moving to shooting guard, and the Bobcats drafting Kawhi Leonard to take over small forward. Leonard is small at 6'7" and 225 pounds, but his intensity on both offense and defense reminds me a lot of Wallace. He needs to work on his three-point shooting quite a bit, but that will improve with time.
If he's available, Charlotte could potentially draft its next franchise player.
No. 10: Milwaukee Bucks
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If there's one thing the Milwaukee Bucks have been known for the past five years, it's oft-injured shooting guard Michael Redd. Yet, Redd will be a free agent this offseason and given his injury history, he will not be back. Instead of addressing this need, Joel and Mike predicted the Bucks would draft Marcus Morris out of Kansas to give Andrew Bogut some help on defense.
I can understand this logic completely. Yet, since Milwaukee already has Drew Gooden and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute at power forward, I don't see the better of the Morris twins going to the Bucks. Rather, I predict that the team will draft electrifying shooter Alec Burks out of Colorado and insert him into Redd's old role: the guy who shoots the lights out.
Burks averaged 20.5 points and even 6.5 rebounds as a sophomore, but his 6'6" and 195-pound frame just screams lack of athleticism. He'll be a great shooter in the NBA and nothing more. But hey, if Redd could make a career out of that, so can Burks!
No. 11: Golden State Warriors
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If there's one thing that the Golden State Warriors need help on, it's defense. They have been a run-and-gun team for a long time, and while they have some amazing shooters, games cannot be won without solid defense. Joel and Mike picked the team to draft Kawhi Leonard, and if he is available, there is no doubt in my mind that he will take his talents to Northern California.
Yet, Leonard's style of play doesn't really mesh well with the offensive culture of the team. That may change depending on the next head coach but assuming it doesn't, I have the Warriors taking Marcus Morris. This man plays small forward with ease, having a great shooting touch and even some talent from long range.
If the Warriors pick a coach who puts offense first, Morris would be a perfect fit given his ability to balance out his offensive and defensive game.
No. 12: Utah Jazz
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Assuming the Jazz take a forward with the third overall pick, they will most likely use the 12th pick to take a guard. Joel and Mike have the team taking a shooter with the third and forward Kawhi Leonard with this pick. However, I'm anticipating Leonard will be gone by Utah's second turn and instead, they will take state-hero Jimmer Fredette.
Fredette already has ties to the community as he was a star at BYU for four years. That being said, why not let him continue his career in the state that made him famous?
No. 13: Phoenix Suns
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For nearly a decade, the Phoenix Suns have been a run-and-gun team. With Alvin Gentry at the helm, that culture is not going to change any time soon. Joel and Mike have the team taking one of three players: Jimmer Fredette, Markieff Morris or Tristan Thompson.
Each of these three players has potential to mirror one of the key Suns players from the team's glory days during the Mike D'Antoni era. The way I see it, Fredette is Leandro Barbosa, Markieff Morris could become Amar'e 2.0 with time and Tristan Thompson could show flashes of Shawn Marion.
Given the state of the team right now and their approach to offense, I'm going to say they pick Fredette and mold him into a top point guard.
No. 14: Houston Rockets
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Mike and Joel have the Rockets taking Tobias Harris to spell Chase Budinger at small forward. I agree with them 100 percent. Harris may just be a freshman, but his maturity is exceptional, and he was the fearless leader of a Tennessee squad that was drowning in controversy.
The only other player I see the team drafting is Tristan Thompson, and his game is just too one-dimensional. Thus, Harris is the man for Houston.
No. 15: Indiana Pacers
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While the Indiana Pacers have a lot of potential, they need help in the frontcourt. Roy Hibbert is a fine center but inconsistent on offense. At power forward, Jeff Foster is getting old and Tyler Hansbrough hasn't become the dominant man on the inside team management hoped he would become. Thus, a young power forward is needed.
Joel and Mike picked either Kenneth Faried or Tristan Thompson to go to this team. As much as I love Faried, I can't see him going this early in the draft. Thus, Thompson and his long shot-blocking arms will be featured in Indy next season.
No. 16: Philadelphia 76ers
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If there's one thing that the Philadelphia 76ers struggled on this season, it was defense. Elton Brand was inconsistent on the rebounding game all season, and Spencer Hawes is, for lack of better word, a joke. Joel and Mike picked either of the Morris twins to go to Philly, but I'm going to disagree on this one.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Sixers will draft Chris Singleton out of Florida State. He can provide a big body in the middle and bring leadership to a young squad whose top veteran leader spends a little too much time on the trainer's table.
No. 17: New York Knicks
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The Knicks need two things going into the 2011 draft: a point guard and a big man. Joel and Mike chose neither of these, predicting that Donnie Walsh would take Duke's Kyle Singler.
Don't get me wrong, Singler is a fine player with many valuable skills. However, he just isn't what the Knicks need at the moment. Instead, I can see them using this pick on a big man to take some of the defensive pressure off of Amar'e Stoudemire.
In terms of players, two names come to mind: Kenneth Faried and Markieff Morris. Faried could be the fan's choice since he's from nearby Newark, New Jersey. However, Morris is the better player overall and as per the rule in any draft, always take the best player available.
If Morris's name hasn't been called by pick No. 17, that makes him the best one available. At least for the Knicks.
No. 18: Washington Wizards
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Assuming that they take Jordan Hamilton per my prediction early in the first round, the Wizards will take a big man with the 18th pick. Mike and Joel predicted the team to pick Brazilian center Lucas Nogueira, but I don't see his athleticism warranting a first-round pick. He's got a lot of potential, but is just a bit skinny at 7'0" and 225 pounds, a complete twig compared to Javale McGee and Andray Blatche.
Rather, I can see the Wizards drafting Kenneth Faried with this pick. He's an absolutely electrifying board-crasher, and on a team that needs a lot of help on defense, Faried will be a top inside presence despite a seemingly small stature of 6'8".
No. 19: Charlotte Bobcats
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Mike and Joel picked the Bobcats to select Lucas Nogueira with the 19th pick, but we already know my opinion on him. Instead, I'm going to go out on a major limb. The Bobcats will take the draft's biggest gamble and select JaJuan Johnson out of Purdue.
Let's be honest. The Bobcats need a big man and Kwame Brown just won't do. Johnson averaged 20.5 points and 8.6 rebounds along with 2.3 blocks in his senior season.
He's a bit skinny at 6'10" and 221 pounds, but a little time in the weight room could turn him into the big man the Bobcats and their fans have been dreaming of.
No. 20: Minnesota Timberwolves
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At one point, Klay Thompson was probably a lottery pick. Then, he was suspended for Washington State's final regular season game after being charged with misdemeanor marijuana possession.
Joel and Mike had the Timberwolves taking Chris Singleton with this pick, but the forward situation in Minnesota will be quite crowded if that happens. Rather, I can see the team taking Thompson and thus providing themselves with a viable shooting forward off the bench. Keep in mind, Thompson averaged 21.6 points his junior season and shot 39 percent from three-point range.
If that talent translates well to the pros, the 'Wolves will definitely improve.
No. 21: Portland Trail Blazers
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The Portland Trail Blazers are looking for redemption this draft. They have needs at center what with the uncertainty surrounding Greg Oden but could also use some help at guard with the injury history of Brandon Roy. Joel and Mike predicted that Boston College shooter Reggie Jackson would be taken by Portland, and I'm going to agree with them 100 percent.
However, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Jackson will not contribute immediately. Let's not forget that he only had one great season, his junior one that he is just coming off of. At this point, Jackson is a glorified shooter who still has a lot to learn on the professional level, so fans must be patient.
No. 22: Denver Nuggets
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The Denver Nuggets completely overhauled their team last season, and if Nene leaves due to free agency, some help will be needed on defense. Joel and Mike picked the team to draft Tyler Honeycutt out of UCLA and at this point, I have to agree with them.
Honeycutt is the type of player who can contribute defensively on all ends and the Nuggets will need that if Nene does indeed walk. Don't let the skinny 6'8", 188-pound frame fool you. This kid can play D.
No. 23: Houston Rockets
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Given how Yao Ming is likely to leave Houston this offseason, the Rockets will really need a big man. They could easily fill this void through the draft, yet Joel and Mike picked the team to take Kyle Singler. Rather, I have a feeling that Houston will choose Oakland center Keith Benson.
Benson is a bit skinny at 6'11" and 230 pounds, but he is such a versatile center that could fit perfectly into Houston's system, depending on the coach hired. As a senior, he averaged 17.9 points, 10.1 rebounds and an amazing 3.6 blocks. He also shot 39 percent from three point range. What's not to like?
No. 24: Oklahoma City Thunder
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This is a very hard pick to analyze. The Oklahoma City Thunder are a very versatile and deep team, so figuring out how they approach the draft is tough. Joel and Mike picked Kyle Singler as a possibility for the team, and I'm going to agree with them.
Singler is a player I like to call the ultimate swingman. He can score inside and from long range, and can also play effective defense. He was a great college player, so if he can succeed on the NBA level, all the better.
No. 25: Boston Celtics
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After next season, Ray Allen will more than likely retire. Thus, the Celtics should use this year's draft to select his heir. Joel and Mike suggested Nolan Smith and honestly, I could not think of a more perfect choice.
Smith may be small at 6'2" and built more like a point guard, but he has leadership skills that mirror those of Allen. On top of that, he's a decent three-point shooter who with time, could become a stud in the NBA. If the Celtics take him and are patient with his development, he will be well on his way to becoming one of the team's most popular players.
No. 26: Dallas Mavericks
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Let's be honest. At point guard, the Dallas Mavericks are extremely old with Jason Kidd. His contract is up at the end of next season, and it's time that the team drafted his replacement. Joel and Mike predict that Darius Morris will be the man the Mavs select, and I will once again agree with them.
Morris is a versatile point guard who averaged 15 points and 6.7 assists last year for Michigan, and in watching him during the tournament, he is a born leader who runs the floor like a pro. If Dallas selects him, he'll have a great mentor in Kidd and no doubt will become a top point man.
No. 27: New Jersey Nets
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This offseason, the New Jersey Nets will probably lose rebounding machine Kris Humphries to free agency. Joel and Mike predicted Keith Benson and Richmond's Justin Harper as viable options to replace him, but I am going to go out on a limb once again. If he's still available, the Nets will take Kenneth Faried.
Faried to the Nets makes sense for so many reasons. He is from Newark, where the team plays its home games, and could use his ties to the community to bring in a new generation of fans. The team needs a pick-me-up, and Faried could be it.
No. 28: Chicago Bulls
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The Chicago Bulls need an upgrade at just one positon: shooting guard. Keith Bogans has been nothing but a liability and non-factor all season long, and it's time for an upgrade. Joel and Mike predicted team management to gamble on either Davis Bertans or Bojdan Bogdanovic, but I have a feeling a certain star of the NCAA tournament could find himself in Chicago.
Butler's Shelvin Mack proved to be a prominent shooter during the Bulldogs' second consecutive Cinderella run and considering how he drives well to the basket and shoots the lights out from three-point range, the Bulls should draft him. He and Derrick Rose could be a fine pairing of guards, and if his offense follows him to the pros, Mack could become a rock star in the Windy City.
No. 29: San Antonio Spurs
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Given how Tim Duncan is slowing down with age, the San Antonio Spurs need a big man. Yet, Joel and Mike predicted the Spurs to draft athletic forward Jereme Richmond out of Illinois. Instead, I have a feeling that the Spurs will draft Duncan's replacement in Jeremy Tyler, a 6'11" forward/center who spent last season playing in Japan.
Tyler's maturity could be an issue considering how he pulled a Brandon Jennings and skipped college to play overseas, but he has the body of a top center at 255 pounds. In San Antonio, he'd have an amazing mentor in Tim Duncan and with time, could become the next big name in Spurs history (literally).
No. 30: Chicago Bulls
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With the final pick in the first round, the Chicago Bulls could look to add depth at forward/center. Kurt Thomas is getting old, and Joel and Mike predicted the team would pick Richmond's Justin Harper to replace him.
I'll agree with them simply because I like Harper's versatility. He has great size at 6'10" and 225 pounds and averaged 17.9 points for Richmond last season. He also shot 44 percent from long range.
If Harper can get over the hump of playing at a small school and add some size so he can compete with A-list centers, then he could perhaps become a regular off the bench of a deep and talented Chicago squad.
