Chicago Cubs: Looking Ahead to 2012

Hey, maybe the Mayans will be right and the world will end after the Cubs finally win the World Series next season. At least I could die a happy man.

In reality, that's about as likely as my getting a date with Brooklyn Decker.

I was blasted my several of you for writing recently that the Cubs may go after Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran if they decide to make the free-agent-to-be available.

Why would the Cubs do that when they aren't contenders and with such a fine base of youth to build upon?

Well, that trade fantasy aside, I must admit that as bad as the Cubs have looked at times this season (and Tuesday night's game was embarrassing even by Cubs standards), this is a winnable division.

But for the sake of argument, let's say the Cubs continue to play like a minor league team. I mean, after all, they have a minor league manager and pitching coach.

That said, what's on the horizon for this team?

First off, I must say that the Cubs farm system is in pretty decent shape in terms of depth, especially at the lower levels.

But in terms of major league ready star power, it is just not there.

Sure, Starlin Castro will be a multiple All-Star over the years. And if Andrew Cashner can overcome his recent arm problems, perhaps the Cubs will wake up and stick him in the bullpen where he should be dominant.

But other than that, what else do they have?

Tyler Colvin wasn't given an opportunity and though I've always been of the opinion that he's no more than a good fourth outfielder, the Cubs certainly weren't going to develop him into an everyday player by giving him such sporadic playing time.

Aside from the way they've mishandled Colvin, there is Darwin Barney of course. Now Barney is the kind of player you can't help but root for—he plays hard, seems to have good baseball instincts and has been successful in a very small sample size.

But he's a utility infielder, folks. He has never projected as a solid average regular in the big leagues.

Meanwhile, the farm offers longer term hope, although they traded some of that hope away when they sent Hak-Ju Lee and Chris Archer to Tampa. But Trey McNutt is the only starter whom I project to be anywhere near major league ready at this point.

Chris Carpenter can be a dominant reliever in the bigs if he gets his chance and the Cubs don't screw around with him like they have with Cashner, Colvin and Jeff Samardzija..

In terms of position players, they do have Brett Jackson in AA.

Jackson projects to be a solid regular, although he doesn't project as an elite player. His swing has a lot of noise and produces high strikeout rates. But his speed is above average and he should play an adequate center field.

Jackson's power could develop, too, and he may end up hitting around 20 homers per year. and he's close to being ready. He should get a look soon; if not later this year, then in the spring.

He very well could be the Cubs starting centerfielder in 2012.

But a lot of what happens with this club over the near future depends on GM Jim Hendry. If Hendry stays, I have little confidence that he will put together anything more than an average roster from year to year.

In other words, he will never truly "go for it" nor does he have the patience to deal with a youth movement. The Cubs with Hendry will always be in-between. Just enough to keep the paying customers optimistic.  

And even if Hendry is gone, how much faith do you have in owner Tom Ricketts?

This is a guy who is supposedly evaluating his front office without the help of a real baseball man.

Good luck with that.

'Mediocre Hell' is the worst possible place to be because you're not building for a future run and you're not good enough to win a title.

And that is a shame because there is opportunity on the horizon.

Look, a significant chunk of payroll falls off the books after this season.

The Cubs can finally say goodbye to the overpaid and under-performing Aramis Ramirez and Kosuke Fukudome.

That's $28.1 million saved, minus a $2 million buyout for Ramirez.

Subtract Carlos Pena's $10 million—although half of that amount will be paid out in January 2012—and even with the raises due Carlos Marmol and arbitration eligible players, that's quite a bit freed up.

Ryan Dempster has a player option, but I would expect him to pick it up. He's not a $14 million pitcher, but that's what the Cubs will pay him in 2012.

Marlon Byrd will likely be trade bait, as the Cubs look to give young Jackson the job. John Grabow thankfully will walk away. Kerry Wood likely won't return.

Randy Wells, Koyie Hill and Blake DeWitt are DFA candidates.

But does anyone truly have faith that Hendry will use that money wisely?

One thing I do know is you can forget about Albert Pujols. I expect him to re-sign with the Cardinals, but even if he hits the free agent market, the Cubs aren't likely to pay him $25 million or more over seven or eight years.

The Cubs need a legitimate leadoff hitter and like most teams, starting pitching. Above all, they need to improve defensively and add team speed.

The 2012 market contains Prince Fielder to fill the first base void (although he will likely cost almost as much as Pujols). But I would be leery investing long-term in a body like that. He will not age well carrying that much weight.

There are no second basemen who excite me, and third base is about the same.

As for starting pitching, CC Sabathia may opt out of his contract, but the Yankees will likely extend him.

In all, a fairly thin class (Fielder jokes aside), assuming options are picked up for guys like Robinson Cano and Roy Oswalt. So the Cubs would be wise to explore trades if they want to spend that money.

The Cubs should go young, both through their own system and via trades.

They may have to live with more down years and declining attendance, but then again it's been so long since the Cubs have won that a couple more years hardly seems to matter anymore.

A good start would be for Ricketts to bring in a capable replacement for Hendry; one who understands scouting and player development and doesn't scoff at the value of metrics. 

But what makes anyone think that Ricketts is capable of finding that guy?

Ah well, those Mayans may as well be right. The baseball world effectively ended for the Cubs 103 years ago.