Bernard Hopkins Vs Kelly Pavlik: Analysis of the Executioner and the Ghost

This Saturday October 18th Bernard "The Executioner" Hopkins (48-5-1 32 KO) versus Kelly "The Ghost" Pavilik (34-0-0 30 KO) in a boxing bout that is a clash of styles and generations.

Hopkins willingness to fight the best at 43 years old in commendable but, has also turned quite ugly in his past few fights he is 3-3 in his last six fights. Not bad for a guy who is 43 but, looking back at his illustrious career this is clearly the downside of it.

The former middleweight champ has victories over some of boxing's finest: Oscar De La Hoya, Felix Trinidad, Winky Wright, Antonio Tarver, William Joppy, and Glenn Johnson. He has never been KOed in 54 fights with notable losses to Roy Jones Jr, Jermaine Taylor, and Joe Calzaghe all via decision.

Once known for his surgical precision, tactical break down of his opponents and deadly accurate right hand that was a true pleasure to watch even up until a few years ago, now he is noted more for his dirty tactics and post fight complaints.

Though Hopkins has always utilized the "dirty" tricks of boxing its was never his primary weapon but, even now he is a master of that craft and uses it with cunning skill just ask Joe Calzaghe or Winky Wright.  Hopkins has said he will fight Pavlik like no one else has before; that maybe true and quite ugly.

Hopkins has proven he can still go 12 rounds with the best so; where does this place him against Pavlik?

Pavlik at 26 years old has a powerful right hand with a come forward go all night style. He has notable wins over Edison Miranda and handed Jermain Taylor his only two losses to date. Pavilik is tough but not very dynamic or mobile yet remains undefeated through persistence and patience.

Most say he will try to KO Hopkins; if thats all he has for a gameplan he should pack plans B,C and, D just to be safe against the slicker veteran.

The Fight:

Hopkins' strategy to win: Hopkins is well past his prime but, his slickness and craftiness are as good as ever.  He needs to move as much as possible and utilize angles and frustrate Pavlik as well as keep him guessing. 

Hopkins should force Pavlik to chase him perhaps causing the young champ to over extend his punches opening up the door for Hopkins to use his masterful countering abilities and score points.

If he has to be inside then he should do as he has to others and rough Pavlik up with his well honed arsenal of tricks and "dirty" tactics. Also Hopkins needs to increase his punch out put significantly to keep up with a younger fighter or he could lose on inactivity alone.

Pavlik's strategy to win: Pavlik has yet to be in with a veteran of Hopkins skill and slickness.  Pavlik needs to be in for the long haul and not pursue a KO to aggressively because he will be giving Hopkins what he needs to win. Pavlik needs to stay outside and use the jab to set up the right and, not get lured in by Hopkins wily ways. 

He also needs to avoid being inside or letting Hopkins clinch because he will get hurt there and be playing Hopkins game.  Staying active on the outside applying pressure and keeping his defense up is Pavliks best plan.

In conclusion while I expect Pavlik to win a decision by about four rounds or more on score cards should run into Hopkins head or get lured into a fight inside he will have problems. Regardless expect an ugly fight as Hopkins will use all his experience and knowledge to take the fight places Pavlik doesn't need to be.

After this one Hopkins needs to retire unless Roy Jones Jr. will grant him a rematch after 15+ years. I would rather see him go out with his mind intact and live a healthy retirement an bring a good ending to a legendary career.

Pavlik has a bright future and has potential opponents in Joe Calzaghe, Mikel Kessler, or even a Chad Dawson if Pavlik wants to go up a bit which wouldn't affect him as a fighter since he could easily make Light Heavy weight.