Animal Kingdom: Don't Expect a Triple Crown Winner in 2011

I have every bit of respect in the world for the winner of the Kentucky Derby, Animal Kingdom.  It is no easy task to win the mile-and-a-quarter race, but he managed to do it.  Owner Barry Irwin needs to enjoy the feeling while it lasts. 

I'll begin with the positives: atop Animal Kingdom was experienced jockey John Velazquez, who rode Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes (and won, by the way).  Velazquez has over 4,000 wins in his career and received the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Jockey in 2004 and 2005—so the horse had a brilliant jockey on him. 

Another good thing that we learned about Animal Kingdom is that he has some explosive power.  He came from the middle of the pack with about a quarter mile left and blew away the competition to win the race. 

I studied the horse before the race began, and his velocity and ability to burst like that was sub-par to other contenders, such as Midnight Interlude and Mucho Macho Man.  To see him go on such a run with such smoothness was impressive.

Unfortunately, I also studied Anima Kingdom when I went to the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky on March 26.  This is a key race leading up to the Derby.  Animal Kingdom won that race in a very similar fashion: running a one-mile-and-one-eighth long race in 1:52.32 and winning by a little under three lengths.  He angled out with about a quarter mile left, breaking to the outside and beating out fellow Derby runners Decisive Moment and Twinspired. 

Why is this bad?  Well, in all honesty, Animal Kingdom outclassed every other horse in the Spiral Stakes—only the two other Derby contenders had any chance.  I've determined that this is a horse that runs from behind, much like Mine That Bird in 2009.  When it comes time to run the Preakness, which is a longer race, we could see another horse like Nehro or Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty (should she run). 

I just don't foresee Animal Kingdom lasting a longer race—if you watch the tape, he made an incredible burst, but once he was ahead, he was lucky that the race ended when it did.  Nehro's explosive power is much better, but he was pinned to the inside and broke too late. 

In a nutshell: Animal Kingdom's speed was good enough for the Derby, but I don't expect it to hold up when it comes time for the Preakness and Belmont.  A good horse?  Absolutely.  A great horse?  I don't think so. 

Affirmed's 1978 Triple Crown honor will continue to reign as the last one we've ever seen; this is not to say I hope I'm right, as I'd love to see one (I'm only 20, so I've never seen it).  However, in my mind, that would be an upset among all others.