
2011 NFL Draft: Analyzing the Colts Draft Picks and Predicting Their Futures
Now that the NFL draft is over, we've all had some time to grow accustomed to the new players acquired in the draft (assuming that we have football in 2011). Now that we've had time to react to the individual picks, let's take a look at the draft as a whole.
To do that, we are going to analyze the individual picks, and then predict their production for the Colts in the next year and beyond. With those results, we can attempt to analyze the draft as a whole.
Hobey-ho, let's go.
1. Anthony Castonzo, OT
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This was the home run of the draft for the Colts. With the quarterback run pushing down the top offensive linemen, the Colts were lucky enough to have Anthony Castonzo drop to them. According to Bill Polian, none of the "scenarios" that the Colts had involved Castonzo being available. When he was available at pick No. 22, the Colts wasted no time snapping him up.
As I explained here, Anthony Castonzo was the best fit at offensive lineman for the Colts in the 2011 draft. He is the most ready-to-play tackle, with exceptional pass protecting skills and solid run blocking as well. According to Chris Polian, GM for the Colts, Castonzo is "penciled in" at left tackle.
For this first year, Colts fans should expect Castonzo to start all 16 games at left tackle. Of course, he will likely have rookie moments, but hopefully Castonzo will become the cornerstone for the line for a long time, much like Tarik Glenn was.
2. Ben Ijalana, OT/OG
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Like Castonzo, Ijalana was one of the players I previewed as a top choice for the Colts here. Bill Polian likened the drafting of the two of them to the drafting of Tarik Glenn and Adam Meadows in 1997. That would bode well for the Colts, as Meadows and Glenn were bookend tackles for seven years.
Ijalana has the experience (started in over 50 college games) to come in and play for the Colts. He has the abilities to play both guard and tackle, and both positions sorely need a change.
While it has been hinted that Ijalana will start out at guard this season, the Colts hope that Ijalana can transition to tackle quite nicely. However, even if he can't, the Colts desperately need a solid guard to replace Mike Pollak.
3. Drake Nevis, DT
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Nevis was the Colts attempt to shore up their defensive tackles. Nevis played extremely well at LSU, penetrating the offensive line and wreaking havoc in the backfield.
While the Colts needed a defensive lineman, Nevis may not have been the best choice. The Colts have several promising 3-tech DTs, linemen whose job is to penetrate the line, in Fili Moala and Daniel Muir. What the Colts are missing is a 1-tech, a wide run stuffer. Nevis seems to be a 3-tech more than a 1-tech, but some experts think that Nevis may fit in as a 1-tech in the Colts light defensive line.
Hopefully, Nevis has a small part in the rotation this year, but he likely won't make the leap until next year. However, Colts fans can definitely hope to see him starting in the next couple years. Whether that is at 1- or 3-tech is yet to be seen.
4. Delone Carter, RB
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Delone Carter is something that Bill Polian has been looking for. Polian has stated several times his desire for a tough, hard runner. With his recent remarks about the running game, he made it clear that he felt that a bruiser type of running back would help fix up the short yardage running game.
However, it seemed that the Colts could have fixed some bigger needs with this pick. The Colts desperately needed a safety, such as Quinton Carter on the board, or a wide receiver.
Still, Carter should fill a need for the Colts, as the short yardage back. If Joseph Addai ends up leaving the Colts, Carter should form a good tandem with Donald Brown. Even if Addai stays, Carter allows the Colts to let fan favorite Mike Hart leave.
6. Chris Rucker, CB
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Chris Rucker is a poor-man's Marlin Jackson type of pick. He's physical and big, and is a better fit for man coverage than for zone. The good thing seems to be the possibility that he transitions to safety for the Colts, filling a huge need.
One concern is that he has had two incidents with the police, and character concerns are often something that the Colts care about.
All in all, fans shouldn't expect to see Rucker much this season. Special teams is a definite probability, and he may be in the rotation for safety, if he makes the transition. However, if he stays at corner, he likely won't see the field unless the Colts are hit with another rash of injuries to the corners. The best scenario for him would be to transition to SS.
Overall
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The biggest thing to take from this year's draft is "different."
The Colts did things a little differently this year, instead of focusing on skill players in the early rounds, and building on the pass offense and defense as in years past. The Colts took three linemen in the first three rounds, only drafting "skill players" in the fourth and fifth rounds.
There was truly a renewed focus on the run game in this draft, drafting two offensive linemen, a tough running back and a defensive tackle to help stop the run. Overall, it looks to be a very solid draft for the Colts, addressing the weakest parts of their 2010 team. While some may wish for a larger focus on the defensive side of the ball, the draft was, as of now, a success.
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