Kentucky Derby 2011: Who Will Take the Title?

The Kentucky Derby 2011 Is Wide Open, But Where Will Every Horse In the Field Finish? 

We're just over 24 hours away from the running of the 137th annual Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville. This year's race promises to be a wild affair, and with speed and stamina up and down the track, it should be a thrilling race. 

Where will your favorite horse finish? How will your dark horse (get it?) pick fare in what experts are calling the most wide open field in recent Derby history? Who will emerge from the fray to etch their names in the annals of history as a Kentucky Derby champion? 

Fortunately for you, I've broken down and analyzed the Derby field, carefully taking into account every factor and trait the horses possess. Here are my picks for the final full standings. 

The horses are listed with their most recent odds beside their name in parentheses.

20. Uncle Mo (scratch): Poor Uncle Mo. He was a potential winner until he was scratched due to intestinal issues today. With no replacement in the field, Mo's an automatic last-place finisher. 

19. Derby Kitten (30-1): No one has been talking much about Derby Kitten this week, and there's a reason for that. He lost by 27 lengths in the only dirt track race of his career, and I don't know that Churchill will be all that much more forgiving. 

18. Decisive Moment (30-1): Sadly, the moment of truth for this colt will come well before the finish line, as it looks outclassed in this year's field. He's too slow on dirt and will struggle without a great start. 

17. Watch Me Go (50-1): The longest long shot in the bunch won't finish last, but fans can still expect to watch him go to the back of the pack in a hurry. He looked good in Tampa but terrible in Illinois. Against a still solid Derby field, I just don't see it happening. 

16. Santiva (30-1): A touch too slow for my liking, and his last showing at Blue Grass was disappointing at best. He rarely finishes off the board, but he could easily wind up back here this time.

15. Comma to the Top (30-1): A sprinter, pure and simple, Comma to the Top figures to be the pace setter, but he'll fade in the latter half of the race. He just doesn't have the stamina to stay in front, and this position seems about right for him. 

14. Stay Thirsty (20-1): A solid horse, but Stay Thirsty wasn't his owner's first choice (Uncle Mo), and while he's capable of a strong showing, I don't think he can pull off a win. 

13. Midnight Interlude (10-1): A promising horse, surely, but without much experience in his career (he didn't race as a 2-year-old and hadn't won until 42 days before the Derby), he'll struggle to keep his winning ways going. This seems low, but I could see him getting worked back in the pack. 

12. Master of Hounds (20-1): The Irish horse delivers a solid showing then gets distracted by the Guinness being served in the stands halfway through. In all seriousness, Master of Hounds isn't a great dirt track racer, and he'll struggle against some of the horses in this one. 

11. Animal Kingdom (10-1): We haven't heard much about Animal Kingdom this week, but he's better than you might think. However, he's never raced on dirt before, and there's never been a Derby winner who has never set foot on a dirt course prior to training for the race. 

10. Shackleford (20-1): Another potential pace-setter, Shackleford has the stamina to keep up with the leaders. His overall speed scores are a bit low, however, to feel comfortable picking him as champ. Even so, he could easily finish higher than this. 

9. Twinspired (30-1): Twinspired might be the local hero, but the fact is he's not a stellar horse. His strong post position and fantastic jockey give him a puncher's chance, but his lack of speed and success on dirt tracks is too much to overcome. Still, expect the home crowd to pull for him and give him enough for a top-10 finish. 

8. Soldat (12-1): An intriguing pick, as long as he can get to the front quickly. With some of the sprinters in this race, he'll struggle to make up ground on the dirt track, and has looked like a turf-expert. 

7. Brilliant Speed (30-1): A definite speed demon, Brilliant Speed has wowed handicappers with his ability to fly around Churchill Downs this week. However, he's struggled on dirt in the past, losing his two races on the surface by a combined 40 lengths, which is something you don't want to see from a Derby champ.

6. Nehro (6-1): The new second favorite on the board, Nehro could easily finish higher than this. He's ran well at this distance, but when was the last time the hot name actually won the race? On top of that, he hasn't shown a drive to win, and I could see him settling in around here, although he won't finish much further back.

5. Mucho Macho Man (12-1): The second-best name in the field, Macho is a real contender. He's run well against several top horses in this field and has found some success on dirt. He's got a good story, and the Derby loves good karma. But his youth (the youngest horse to compete in the derby) will play a major factor and could cost him a win. 

4. Pants on Fire (30-1): The current holder for best name in the Derby, Pants on Fire is on a tear. He took home the Louisiana Derby and has a jockey capable of taking him to the finish as well as the stamina to pull it off. He'll need to get in front quickly (or close to it) and if he does, he'll grab the win. 

3. Twice the Appeal (30-1): If any other jockey were riding Twice the Appeal, he'd be at the back of the field. But do you really want to bet against Calvin Borel in the Derby? Neither do I. Expect another strong showing from the jockey here, even with a lackluster mount. 

2. Dialed In (4-1): The odds-on favorite right now, Dialed In has the right combination of speed and stamina to win this race. But his reputation as a slow starter could push him too far back in the pack to rally, and he'll come up just short this year. 

1. Archarcharch (10-1): My pick to win the Derby, Archarcharch is the most balanced horse in the field. He can win any pace of race, has stellar stamina and can win from the front or rally from the back. He's versatile and balanced, and not even a terrible starting spot (first post) can keep him from scoring the Derby win by a nose.