Duke Blue Devils: A Frank and Pessimistic View on Next Season

Last season Kyrie Irving was just as good as or even better than advertised. In just 11 games he shot to the top of his class and is being considered at least a top-three pick in the 2011 draft. The downer here is that he only played 11 games due to a toe injury, curtailing an expected return to the Final Four for Duke.

Injuries are unpredictable, but now it's time to look ahead. We are now in the time of Austin Rivers. He is ranked either No. 1 or 2 on most recruiting boards. If you believe in bad luck, you will be pleased that he has just slid to No. 2 on the ESPN Top 100 recruits list.

The last two ESPN No. 1 picks performed well below expectations: Harrison Barnes last year and Avery Bradley in 2009. If you want to expand this further, the 2008 No. 1 did not even show up for Arizona. Brandon Jennings took his talents to Italy.

Barnes went a long way toward redeeming himself, but the fact that he is now back at UNC when he was expected to be a one-year player speaks volumes—especially considering that before the start of last season he was expected to be the No. 1 draft pick this year.

"There's obviously a lot of basketball left in my career regardless of this year," said Barnes. "Regardless of how this season happens, the world is not going to end. The sun will come out and life will go on. So it's one of those things you just have to look at and not just ask 'Woe is me' or wish this wasn't happening, but to understand why it's happening, to learn from it and get better as a player."

This quote was taken from his profile on Draftexpress.com, and it just shows that he has a very good heart. Based on last season he did improve from day one—he was just no Carmelo Anthony! Coming back for his sophomore year will show his continued improvement, which will see him hopefully reclaim that No. 1 draft spot in 2012 (if you are overly superstitious, you probably believe the world is going to end then anyway!).

Unlike Harrison Barnes, Avery Bradley had a lackluster season at Texas and seemed to get worse as the season progressed, but he then jumped to the NBA as soon as he could. The Boston Celtics nabbed him 19th in the 2010 draft, and he has probably logged just as many minutes in the D-League as he has for the Celtics. The jury is still out on Bradley’s professional career, but the lesson here is there are no guarantees in this business.

Austin Rivers has now firmly been taken over by Kentucky signee Anthony Davis as ESPN’s No. 1 recruit of the 2011 class. Davis was a guard up until a recent growth spurt saw him transfer those guard skills into the body of a power forward (think Lamar Odom), and he might be a big reason Barnes might struggle to reclaim that No. 1 draft spot next year.

Rivers may have narrowly dodged a bullet here, as expectations for the No. 1 recruit can be counterproductive. However, he will have pressure nonetheless as a Duke signee.

Without Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving and Kyle Singler, Duke is actually in a rebuilding year, a fact not very obvious due to the prestige of the incoming recruiting class, which now includes Alex Murphy. The next leading scorer is Seth Curry with 9.0 PPG.

Curry once averaged 20 points a game as a freshman at Liberty in the Big South conference, a far cry from the ACC. He had his moments last season, but if we were totally honest, we would admit that at times he seemed overwhelmed. It is hopeful to predict with more shots available Curry’s point production will increase. He shot 43.5 percent on three-pointers last year.

Quick tangent: It is not a coincidence that the game changed for Duke in the Elite Eight loss to Arizona when Curry got injured. Curry only played nine minutes, but it was enough to keep Lamont Jones in check. I firmly believe that had Curry remained in that game, it would have had a different outcome because Jones was just not as comfortable in the first half as he was without Curry in the second.

This is the issue though: Who remember the days when Duke lived and died by the three-point shot? Well, get ready for another potential season such as this. Rivers has range; so do Andre Dawkins and Curry. These are the expected top scorers. Even 6'11" Ryan Kelly is more comfortable blasting from long range.

It would be increasingly optimistic to expect the older Plumlees (Miles and Mason) to suddenly become double-digit scorers at this point. Point production in the paint will take a drastic hit without the departing seniors and the phenomenal freshman.

One other thing to consider: It is easy to feel good about the fact that Duke has the second-best recruiting class, but compared to Kentucky, which has the No. 1 class, there is a huge gap. Kentucky has four recruits in the top 20, all 5-star recruits. Like Nolan Smith, all of Duke’s incoming recruits have a 4-star rating except for Rivers.

"I see a big opportunity for me," Rivers said. "Singler and Nolan did leave, but you have me and (Quinn Cook, Michael Gbinije, Marshall Plumlee and Alex Murphy) coming in with great players already there. We have big men inside. We have Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins, a lot of shooters. I think we have a good shot of doing big things next year."

This quote was taken from Bostonherald.com after the McDonald's All-American Game. They also quoted Don Showalter, assistant coach for the East team, who previously coached Rivers.

"He can really shoot, more of a streaky shooter," Showalter said. "He adjusts his game to what the defense allows to him and to his teammates. If he needs to get the ball to somebody else, he will. If he needs to score, he will. A lot of kids don’t do that."

Streaky shooter is not what you want to hear about a program saver. Harrison Barnes can be described as a streaky shooter, and look how that turned out. Don’t worry. There is no need to look for a sturdy rope or a high building yet. If you listen to Rivers, you will see there is hope for the future.

"Some people feel nervous, but I feel real comfortable on the big stage," Rivers said. "I like having the ball in my hand with two seconds to play. I’m not scared of anybody or any situation.

"You can’t be scared to fail."