2011 Kentucky Derby Odds: Some of the Smartest Bets You Can Place
When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there is no such thing as a sure thing, and this year is no exception.
In fact, this may be the most difficult Derby to handicap in recent years due to the fact that there is no real class of the field, with even some of the favorites having major question marks surrounding them.
The morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby is Dialed In, and he is the favorite for good reason. He has won three of his four lifetime starts, and has posted back-to-back impressive Beyer Speed Figures of 97 and 93. The winner of the Florida Derby also has big name connections with Julien Leparoux aboard for the ride and Nick Zito as the trainer. This son of Mineshaft has never run a truly bad race, and will likely have plenty of pace to run at in the stretch.
The second choice, according to the morning line, is Uncle Mo at 5-1. This son of Indian Charlie is probably the most talented horse entered in the Derby, but also has more question marks then any other horse. The most notable question is will he actually run? He was diagnosed with a gastrointestinal infection after finishing a disappointing third in the Wood Memorial at Belmont Park on Apr. 9, but has looked fantastic in recent workouts. That loss was the only loss of Uncle Mo's young career.
Although they won't be heavy favorites, both of these horses will take a ton of action on race day and could be co-favorites at post time. While they both have a great chance of winning the race, neither horse will offer a ton of value given their short odds.
So, with that being said, let's try and beat them.
As the countdown to the Run for the Roses continues, let's take a look at some of the smartest bets you can place on Derby Day. These are some horses to remember when you are making simple bets such as win bets, exacta bets, triple bets and superfecta bets.
Win Bets: Archarcharch
1 of 7
Archarcharch isn't exactly a long shot, but he could be forgotten come Derby day. He doesn't have the big name connections that some of the other horses in this race have, as jockey Jon Court and trainer William "Jinks" Fires are relatively unknown commodities among the casual horse racing fans.
He also drew post position No. 1, which most jockeys and trainers dread starting from. However, the news isn't all bad.
Archarcharch, a son of Arch, is unquestionably at the top of his game. He has won two of his previous three starts, including an upset victory in the Arkansas Derby where came from off the pace to post a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. He was able to handle the 1.125-mile distance of the Arkansas Derby, and his pedigree suggests that he should have no problem stretching out tot he 1.25-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby. He also has beaten Nehro, who will be another contender in this race.
Furthermore, the poor starting position isn't like to effect Archarcharch too much. He doesn't have much tactical speed, and therefore likes to come from the back of the field, meaning he can lay back at the start of the race and seek out a good trip. If he were a speed horse, the post position would be much more concerning.
If the pace is honest, this is a dangerous horse. And as mentioned before, he could be more of a price than his morning line would lead you to believe.
He is my pick to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby.
Mucho Macho Man
2 of 7
Mucho Macho Man, a son of Macho Man, is an extremely versatile horse who is comfortable when he is close to the leaders but has also shown the ability to back off and stalk the pace. That ability to lay off the pace could prove to be valuable if a speed duel breaks out up front.
He had a very impressive two-year-old campaign, finishing second in both the Nashua and the Remsen at Aqueduct Park last year. On Feb. 19 he put it all together and won the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds while posting a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. On Mar. 26, he was the favorite in the Louisiana Derby but was a beaten third, although after the race it was revealed that he had a shoe and foot issue during the race.
He is coming off a bit of a layoff, but it wouldn't be wise to sleep on this contender.
Shackleford
3 of 7
Shackleford will be in the mix to control the pace along with Comma to the Top, and at 20-1, will be a very good price on Saturday.
His effort in the Florida Derby can not be overlooked, as he led throughout the race and was just caught at the wire by Kentucky Derby favorite Dialed In. He posted a very good 93 Beyer Speed Figure that day, although it could be a bit deceiving as Gulfstream Park has always been a track that has favored speed.
This son of Forestry also has a win over the Churchill Downs track and has run in a number of 1.125-mile races, although he will need to stretch out in this one.
Call it a hunch, but if he can wrestle the early lead away from Comma to the Top some of the other speed horses and have the pace his way, he could be first under the wire.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Horses to Consider for Exotics: Twice the Appeal
4 of 7
If for no other reason, Twice the Appeal as a shot in this one because of the man who will be guiding him around the track. Calvin Borel has won the Kentucky Derby three of the past four years, and will be looking to make history yet again.
Twice the Appeal keeps showing signs of improvement, most recently winning the Sunland Derby back in March. He is an experienced colt with decent speed, although Borel will likely choose to have him sit in the middle of the pack.
He doesn't seem to belong in this type of class, but Borel has a way of coming up big on the first Saturday in May.
Animal Kingdom
5 of 7
Here is the bad news: Animal Kingdom has never raced on a dirt track. Up until now, he has raced primarily on the turf, but has looked good in doing so.
However, the good news is that perhaps no other horse in this field is better suited for the 1.25-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby. He has won at nine furlongs, and everything in his pedigree suggests that he can run on for much longer.
Trainer Graham Motion has been on fire and that success could continue here. Animal Kingdom will likely be placed in the back of the pack early, but could be left to pick up the pieces if the rest of the field is unable to handle the 10 furlong distance.
Horses to Consider for Triples and Superfectas: Soldat
6 of 7
Soldat, trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, is another horse that is expected to be a part of the early pace, but could stick around longer then expected. At 20-1, he will offer some great value as well.
On Feb. 26., Soldat won the Fountain of Youth and looked good doing so. He recorded a 96 Beyer Speed Figure in that race. He came back to run a disappointing fifth in the Florida Derby.
He also joins Animal Kingdom as the only two horses in this race with multiple wins at the 1.125-mile distance, which bodes well for this distance. He is another dangerous contender, especially if he is allowed to run loose on the lead. Unfortunately for him, I don't think Comma for the Top and Shackleford will let that happen, but it's possible.
Comma to the Top
7 of 7
Here he is folks: the speed of the speed.
There is no doubt that Comma to the Top has the most tactical speed of any horse in this race. He has posted Beyer Speed Figures of 97 and 95 in the past, and has shown the ability to get loose on the lead and set a blazing pace. He is a gamer.
The only problem here is the distance. And it is a big problem.
When Comma to the Top has been asked to run over a mile, he has had problems with getting tired and wavering down the stretch. His pedigree shows that he isn't really meant to run long distances, let alone 1.25-miles.
It would take a big time effort from this son of Bwana Charlie to hold off 19 other contenders, but he might be able to do enough to stay on the board at the end of the race.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
