NFL Draft 2011: 8 Bold Predictions for Buccaneers Rookies This Season
I'll be predicting the numbers and story lines of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 2011 NFL draft picks.
In all my efforts to hide the NFL lockout, this one may be the greatest. Let's look forward to the start of the season, predict the happenings of the middle of the season and, hell, let's even go ahead and check out the potential outcomes of all of Tampa Bay's rookies.
There is no doubt that Tampa Bay had a fine draft this season. The Bucs addressed their needs, and they probably got a couple steals. There is no debating that GM Mark Dominik knows his stuff when it comes to draft day. Without further ado, I present to you...the future!
Tampa Bay Becomes a Top-Five Leader in Sacks
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It’s no secret that the Buccaneers were atrocious last season rushing the passer. They were tied for second worst in the league with 26 sacks. But 2011 will see a monumental turnaround. With rookies Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers coming from the outside, Gerald McCoy and company getting a push at defensive tackle and Geno Hayes making a contribution, Tampa Bay jumps from 26 to 44 total sacks.
Running Back Allen Bradford Takes Over Goal-Line Stands, Scores Seven-Plus TDs
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Allen Bradford, taken in the sixth round of the 2011 NFL draft, is a punishing runner, much like current Tampa Bay Buccaneers starter, LeGarrette Blount. However, last season, Blount struggled on third-down and goal-line situations.
While Bradford may have been drafted to pick up the blitz on third downs, or even to provide lead blocking for Blount, he could see the majority of short-yardage carries when they need a first down or a score. Taking over the running game within the 2-yard line allows Bradford to finish the season with a cool seven touchdowns.
Luke Stocker Overthrows Kellen Winslow at Tight End
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Kellen Winslow led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in receptions last season, but didn’t pull together many yards or scores. He was also a non-factor in pass and run protection. While Luke Stocker was likely drafted to improve two-tight end sets, he will push Winslow for the starting role.
His blocking is much better than Winslow’s and he shows confidence in his size and hands when asked to run routes over the middle. Stocker and Winslow end up splitting time at tight end, but it is Luke Stocker who wins the stats race by the end of the year, getting more receptions and scores than Kellen Winslow.
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Secondary Struggles in Comparison to Last Season, but Run-Stopping Game Improves
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The Buccaneers have made it a point in the past to punish or even let go of players who get into legal trouble. Of course, that was the case before it happened to Aqib Talib, their up-and-coming star cornerback who shows the potential to become a true force in the NFL. We learned through the NFL draft that the Bucs have no plans of getting rid of him, but will likely let the courts and NFL decide his fate.
He will likely be forced to miss a handful of games. This combined with their lack of experience at the position from other cornerbacks, as well as Ronde Barber losing a step, causes Tampa Bay’s pass defense numbers to drop significantly. The Bucs remain viable, thanks in large part to the pass rush, which increased their interception number, but they lose ground in yards per game and touchdowns allowed.
Ahmad Black Secures a Starting Role
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In the little bit of training camp and preseason that NFL teams are allowed, rookie safety Ahmad Black shows that he was a steal in the fifth round. To begin the season he sees a shared role at safety, splitting time with Corey Lynch, Sean Jones and Cody Grimm. But it doesn’t take long for him to be the featured starter beside Grimm.
Last season, Tampa Bay greatly lacked at the safety position. Sean Jones gave up plenty of long passes and finished the year with 74 tackles and one INT. Corey Lynch played all 16 games and only recorded 32 tackles and one interception. Grimm had 57 tackles and two picks.
If Black sees a significant amount of playing time, it is no stretch to say that he can eclipse these numbers. At strong safety he can accumulate 75 tackles and a handful of interceptions.
Fantasy Football Value of Josh Freeman Is Up, Everyone Else Down
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All of these statistics are all well and good, but it's safe to assume that a hefty sum of people reading this article are equally or even more interested in fantasy implications. While the Buccaneers may improve their season with these selections, it is going to hurt the fantasy value of all players but one.
Only Josh Freeman sees an increase in fantasy output. With a new target at tight end, a strong running back behind him and increased blocking power from both, Freeman can jump from 291 completions, 3,450 yards and 25 touchdowns to over 320 completions, 3,800 yards and 28 scores. Not a huge increase, but enough to see him make the starting lineup in your league.
However, by splitting carries and catches with the newcomers, other offensive talent will see decreases in their fantasy value. Mike Williams loses some of his yardage and touchdowns with Benn healthy and receptions going to the new tight end tandem. LeGarrette Blount could go beyond his yardage of last season, but losing goal-line carries to Bradford means that he will see a decrease in short touchdowns.
Buccaneers Finish 11-5, First Place in NFC South
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OK. I get it. This won't happen. But these are supposed to be bold predictions.
It isn't out of the question however for the Buccaneers to finish with this record and take second in the NFC South. The only tough road games that Tampa Bay will face are in New Orleans, Atlanta and Green Bay. The toughest games for the Bucs all come with home-field advantage, while New Orleans faces a tougher schedule and failed to fill some of its holes in the draft.
Bowers Makes a Strong Case for Defensive Rookie of the Year
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There is a chance that this pick could blow up in their faces, but there is another chance that this will go down as a huge steal in the years to come. Bowers starts out his NFL career in impressive fashion, adding an aggressive pass rush from the outside and contributing to the run-stopping game.
With such an impressive list of defensive talent in the draft, and with the majority of them being defensive ends, the final voting for Defensive Rookie of the Year could very well come down to sack count. If healthy, Bowers could light up the sack total for the Buccaneers since he has help coming from the other side and pressure coming up the middle. His total could exceed nine sacks this season and eclipse 45 tackles.
With a handful of forced fumbles and maybe a defensive touchdown for good measure, Bowers gets his name on the short list for best defensive rookie.
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