2011 Kentucky Derby Favorties: How Great Can Favorite Dialed In Become?

When my editor asked me to write this article, I scoffed, and it probably was not as polite as the word “scoff” makes it sound I was being. He wanted me to write about where Dialed In ranks amongst the all-time greats, and although I don't want to put words in trainer Nicholas Zito's mouth, I think even he would admit that any such comparison between Dialed In and even a Coaltown or Carry Back is a little premature. Sure, he already uttered Dialed In's name in the same sentence as Secretariat, but I'm willing to ignore that for now. 

But after a short discussion, I was willing to accept an alternate assignment. Can Dialed In become an all-time great? 

And the answer, like any speculative question, is maybe. 

He's the son of Mineshaft out of a Storm Cat mare. He wheeled up and passed ten thoroughbreds, some that are pretty good, as if they were claimers, before surging to Shackleford in the Florida Derby. He toyed with the field in the Holy Bull. 

That in and of itself is an impressive resume. 

Suddenly, and no doubt aided by Zito's zeal, Dialed In is likely to be the post-time favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Some are talking about him as if he could win the whole damn thing, and I don't just mean the Derby. He could win the Preakness too, and the Belmont, sweep through the summer, and then beat every older horse in the Breeders' Cup Classic. 

At this point, anything is possible. 

Six months ago, after he rolled home in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, all hearts and eyes were heaping the same praise and then some on Uncle Mo. Why even run the races? Uncle Mo was just going to sweep through them anyway. Oh how quickly we forget. 

Now, just a day before the post positions are drawn, just one loss later, the same number of losses as Dialed In has, and I'm being asked the same question but about a different horse. And just like I ignored the question about Uncle Mo, I want to ignore it about Dialed In. 

If he wins the Kentucky Derby, the comparisons will start. They always start. Oh, how painful it got to be over the two weeks between Fusaichi Pegasus winning the 2000 Kentucky Derby and Red Bullet winning the Preakness that I was almost glad there wasn't going to be a Triple Crown winner in 2000. The same comparisons followed Big Brown in 2008. 

But if Dialed In doesn't win the Kentucky Derby, why should we expect to ever see him on the racetrack again? 

He's already an impressive Grade I winner sporting tremendous bloodlines. Any reason to race him beyond his three-year-old year could easily be outweighed by the financial benefits that come with stud duty. Why should owner Robert LaPenta risk all that money to keep Dialed In on the track at four? 

The short answer: he probably shouldn't. And when it comes to a multi-million dollar investment that probably shouldn't be risked, your safer bet would be to bet that it won't be risked. 

That leaves precious little time for Dialed In to establish himself as one of the all-time greats. Heck, the Kentucky Derby might be his only shot to really rise up. 

Coming from dead last, passing 19 other three-year-olds, hitting the wire first, that is not easy. It's not easy even for the greatest of horses. 

Dialed In has to avoid a lot of trouble turning for home if he is to win, and a few notable exceptions aside, most closers get caught up. Mine That Bird didn't, but never in a million years would I bet on Mine That Bird to repeat that performance. 

If he can win the Derby, Dialed In will be well on his way to greatness. As is always the case with a Mineshaft and Storm Cat cross, the potential is enormous. And of course, there is the possibility the Dialed In won't come from the back anyway. With Mt. Livermore as the second damsire, Dialed In has speed very close up on his mare side. Zito could conceivably try to keep him closer to the front and avoid trying to circumnavigate a score of tiring horses. 

It's way too early to know what will come of Dialed In. He could fade and be forgotten as one of the countless Derby favorites that never materialized. 

Do you remember 2005 favorite Bellamy Road? How about The Cliff's Edge, also owned by LaPenta, who was made the shortest price on the morning line in 2004? No? 

Derby favoritism is far from being an aptitude test for greatness. It's an achievement test of less than 12 months of racing coupled with millions of guesses as to what may be, many of which have no basis in form or reality whatsoever. That's not saying a Derby favorite cannot become great; many, many great horses went off at short prices in the Run for the Roses.

Dialed In certainly has the blood to be a great. He has shown so far he may even possess the heart. But having only raced against four lackluster fields, he's far from tested. 

This is his first test. This may be his only test. Let him pass that first before we look forward. 

If Dialed In can win the Derby, good. Then we can start talking about where he might rank. But let us test him first. 

We already made the mistake of crowning Uncle Mo before we even bought him a cake for his third birthday. Let us try not to do that again.