Greg Oden: Will He Be a Desired Commodity in 2011-2012? Does He Have Options?

We all know the the story of this young man. Greg Oden is 23 years old, he's a four-year NBA veteran, who stands 7' tall and weights 285 pounds. He's considered a defensive specialist and an all-around nice guy. But he's also a guy that has had major health issues, only playing in two of those four years and then only for a total of 82 games. He's the rare NBA player that makes Andrew Bynum look like an iron man.

Greg's rookie contract is set to expire on June 30, 2011. The way the system is set up in the NBA, is his team, the Trailblazers, have the right to offer him a qualifying offer of $8.8 million for next season to retain his services and make him a restricted free agent. If they don't sign him by then, Greg Oden would become an unrestricted free agent.

Blazers GM Rich Cho is on record stating, "The Blazers plan on extending Greg Oden his $8.8 million qualifying offer (for one year) as long as the big man's rehab continues to progress." Obviously, the Blazers will have a major decision to make. What will they consider as "progress?" Are they willing to commit almost $9 million more on Oden at this time? Will they be influenced at all by their decision to commit $70 million over four more years to Brandon Roy, who also has bum wheels? Or will they allow the June 30th deadline to pass and attempt to sign Greg to a less expensive contract per year, but with a little more security, say like $14 million over three years, hoping Greg Oden will understand the clubs position and also hoping Greg feels he owes the Blazers something. If his rehab hasn't "progressed" to the point Mr Cho would feel comfortable shelling out $8.8 million, but a much lesser amount, will that open the door for other teams to "take a shot?"  A team that considers itself "one player away," makes interesting decisions. The Celtics signed 32-year-old, 6'11" Jermaine O'Neal to a one-year contract for more than $5.7 million, knowing very well he wouldn't play a full season. (Jermaine played 24 games, averaging 18 minutes per game). So considering that, would teams like the Heat, Knicks, or even the Celtics consider offering Oden $7 to $10 million per year for two years? And if so, would Greg Oden, a guy who has no clue how long his career may last, go for the championship opportunity and money now? What would you do?