2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Projecting the 2nd Round Winners
Wow. Not too shabby for a first round, eh? Where do I even begin? How about the fact that 15 games were decided by five points or fewer, the most in NBA history for a first round.
Or how about seeing a No. 8 seed take down a No. 1 seed for just the second time in NBA history (in a seven-game series). This just four years removed from the eighth-seeded Golden State Warriors taking down the top seeded Dallas Mavericks.
We also witnessed epic performances from Chris Paul (22 points, 11.5 assists, 6.7 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 55 percent shooting, 47 percent from behind the arc), Kevin Durant (32.4 points and nearly 10 free throws per game), Dwight Howard (27 points and 15.5 rebounds per game), LeBron James (24 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists) and an incredibly clutch performance from Zach Randolph (21.5 points, 9.2 rebounds).
The Memphis Grizzlies were undoubtedly the story of the first round. After playing on national television just three times all season, this was certainly a coming out party for Lionel Hollins' squad, who may just be too young to realize the enormity of the moment they are in.
And what about the losers? Have we seen the last of the San Antonio Spurs team that won four titles in a nine-year span? Will we see Dwight Howard and Chris Paul traded next season, similar to the situation we witnessed with Carmelo Anthony? Will the young Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers sign a big-time player next season in order to take that next step forward? How good will the Denver Nuggets be once they have a full season to gel as one cohesive unit?
These are all questions for another time. For now, let's move on to the "Elite Eight" and predict who will be playing in this year's Conference Finals.
No. 2 Seed Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 3 Seed Dallas Mavericks
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Get ready folks, because there is some bad blood brewing between these two familiar foes. Despite not having faced each other in the playoffs since 1987, these teams are more than familiar with one another.
The Lakers took two of three from the Mavericks this season, including a blow out 110-82 victory in Los Angeles on March 31st.
Emotions boiled over late in this one...we witnessed five player ejections after Jason Terry pushed Steve Blake to the ground out of frustration stemming from the lopsided score. Matt Barnes and Terry have traded verbal shots at one another through the media since the incident as well.
Look, there is no doubt the Mavericks have their best squad since the 2006 Finals team that lost to Miami.
But that doesn't change the fact that this Lakers team is on a mission, and for anyone who watched Game 6 in New Orleans, they have clearly "flipped the switch" and gone into championship mode.
Pau Gasol may have struggled early in the series due to an illness that zapped him of all his energy, and Kobe Bryant gave us quite a scare with a sprained ankle in Game 4, but this is a team now firing on all cylinders with the emergence of Andrew Bynum.
When Bynum is as dominant as he was in the first round, the Lakers are impossible to beat—plain and simple. It allows Gasol to play inside and comfortably float to the outside for 15-foot jump shots, and it allows Lamar Odom to come off the bench to spark the second unit.
It's just not fair to Laker opponents when you can bring a player of Odom's caliber off the bench when Bynum gets two quick fouls, and it's an even bigger advantage when Odom matches up with opposing second unit players who are nowhere near his skill level.
Now it needs to be said that the Mavericks are quite possibly the deepest team in the NBA. If their second unit plays to its potential, this series could go to seven games.
Personally, I just think this Lakers team has finally decided that it's time to play their most physical, aggressive, passionate basketball of the season, on both ends of the court.
When the Lakers are active and engaged on defense, they are the best defensive team in the NBA with their significant height advantage in the paint.
Prediction: Lakers in five.
No. 4 Seed Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Seed Memphis Grizzlies
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Let's make one thing perfectly clear: The Memphis Grizzlies are a very good basketball team. This is not your traditional eight seed. The Western Conference is ridiculously loaded and just making the playoffs is an accomplishment in itself. You'll never see a team eight games below .500 like the Indiana Pacers make the playoffs in the West. Want more proof on the Grizzlies legitimacy? They split with the Spurs during the regular season. They beat Oklahoma City three out of four times during the regular season. Finally, they split the season series with the Lakers. This team is for real people.
If I'm a Grizzlies fan, my two questions are 1) how does Mike Conley match up with Russell Westbrook and 2) how do Sam Young and Shane Battier keep Kevin Durant in check? In my opinion, these are two huge mismatches that the Grizzlies won't be able overcome in a Game 7 in Oklahoma City.
Prediction: Oklahoma City in seven.
No. 1 Seed Chicago Bulls vs. No 5 Seed Atlanta Hawks
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I think you could argue the Atlanta Hawks were more impressive in the first round than the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls really only played one good game during their five-game series, but it did happen in their Game 5 closeout of the Pacers, which is a good sign when moving on to the second round.
The Hawks held Orlando to 88.7 points per game in the first round and will have to play equally as good on defense to have a shot in this series.
I think the Hawks match up well up front with Josh Smith and Al Horford going against Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. They also have a big edge at shooting guard with Joe Johnson taking turns against Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer.
In the end, Derrick Rose is just too good and I think he gets back on track after shooting just 37 percent in the first round. Rose will be able to do anything he wants in this series, as early indications point towards ex-Bull Kirk Hinrich missing this series due to a strained hamstring he suffered in Game 6 versus Orlando.
Prediction: Bulls in five.
No. 2 Seed Miami Heat vs. No. 3 Seed Boston Celtics
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And finally, the matchup we've all been waiting for since "The Decision." The most intriguing matchup of the second round is undoubtedly the Heat vs. the Celtics. We've been waiting for this series since LeBron James announced on July 8th that he would be "taking his talents to South Beach."
The defending Eastern Conference champions versus the team that everyone loves to hate. The original Big Three versus the new Big Three. How will it all play out?
Well, after watching the Heat put on a fairly underwhelming performance versus the 76ers in the first round, I don't think they are quite ready to overtake a battle-tested team like the Celtics. For me, it comes down to an inexperienced team making their first run at a title against an experienced team making their fourth run at a title.
I'll take the team that has been there, done that, every time...
Prediction: Celtics in six.
Well, there you have it, the NBA's 2011 version of the "Final Four" will be the Lakers versus the Thunder in the West and the Bulls versus the Celtics in the East. Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Durant, Westbrook, Rose, Noah, Boozer, Pierce, Rondo, Garnett, and Allen. Do you think Commissioner David Stern will be happy with the star power in those two matchups? Two words: ratings increase.
