Alabama-Ole Miss Preview: The Number "3" Is Key

By Terry Pellman

After what was an enjoyable off week considering where this Alabama team is today and where we all thought we were going to be just two months ago, I started looking at the upcoming battle this Saturday with Ole Miss early Sunday morning.

Time and time again one constant kept catching my eye.  It was how often the number 3 kept entering the picture.  It is fitting considering we are facing our 3rd SEC Western Division opponent for the 2008 season.

As I looked back over the last 3 years, a lot of things popped out to me immediately—namely the number of times the number 3 entered the picture.

We have won the last 3 games by 3 points in every contest.

Ole Miss, on the other hand, has won 3 conference games in the preceding 3 years to the 2008 season.

Ole Miss’ winning percentage for 2008 is .333.

Their current record is 3-3.

We’ve talked about the 3-year cycle Alabama has been on, having solid seasons in 2005, 2002, 1999...

Jevan Snead, Ole Miss quarterback, has a pass efficiency rating of 130.3 percent.

Greg Hardy, a game changer on the Ole Miss line, had a big game in the 3rd quarter last season, recording 3 sacks, all on 3rd down.

On another 3rd down, Hardy forced a fumble in the 3rd quarter, which was recovered on the Ole Miss 3-yard line.

Last year, Alabama was in the red zone 3 times and didn’t score.

This year, Alabama looks to hand Ole Miss its 3rd SEC loss of the year.

Alabama happens to be 3-0 in conference play in 2008 going into the weekend.

While taking the long-held spot from Tennessee playing Alabama the 3rd weekend in October, I see 3 keys that spell victory.

Last season's visit to Oxford found Alabama playing with a lot of intensity for 3 quarters, only to allow Ole Miss to put the outcome of this game in jeopardy in the 3rd quarter.  A word that we’ve heard continually in the 2008 season has been that this team needed to be able to finish games, a trait lacking in the 2007 season.

We’ve seen several games this year where teams came out strong after the half when Alabama has had a sizeable lead, only to make some fans worry if they were witnessing collapses so evident last season.  But in the end, much like last year at Ole Miss, Alabama has found their identity and put the game out of reach as the waning seconds come to a close.

This year with the Rebels, the Tide is going to have to come out strong and continue to play with that intensity from the opening kickoff to the final gun.  Reports coming out of Oxford this past week don’t differ from the reports we received coming from Arkansas the last nine years.

Houston Nutt, a very good game motivator, has his team focused on beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa probably more so than 3-quarters of the teams on their schedule.  While Ole Miss has a horrid record playing in Tuscaloosa (one win in 1998), this looks to be the toughest game Alabama is going to face in the confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Even though Ole Miss has struggled through the years at BDS, the home field advantage is going to be a crucial ingredient for the Tide to succeed.  Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead hasn’t faced a secondary like the one he is going to face Saturday.

The game plan in place for Bama mirrors what we witnessed Sept. 30 when Alabama defeated Clemson 34-10 to start the season.  First and foremost, Alabama is going to look to stop the run and put the game in Snead’s hands.  It puts a burden on the secondary for Alabama considering Snead doesn’t have one favorite receiver, but 3 that he’s spread the passes out to fairly evenly this season.

Alabama, going into the 3rd game of the season, which it would eventually leave 3-0, had questions coming out of Tulane with the play calling from first year offensive coordinator Jim McElwain.

Much like Ole Miss’ chances of a win are found in the hands of Jevan Snead, the success of Alabama’s offense is going to be found in the play calling ability of one Jim McElwain.

One of the primary reasons Alabama struggled last year had to do with the questionable play calling of Major Applewhite.  No matter the series, Applewhite was content to either run the ball the majority of the time or throw the ball in the remaining series.

The most balanced series came on the first possession of the game, where Bama ran the ball seven times, passed six times, and came away with 3 points to secure the early lead.  After that drive, the play calling was abysmal (3 syllables) at best.

Consider these series:

11 passes vs. 5 running plays.

6 running plays vs. 2 passing plays.

6 passing plays vs. 0 running plays.

6 rushing plays vs. 1 passing play.

3 passing plays vs. 0 running plays.

5 passing plays vs. 1 running play.

Look, I could go on and on. but there is one thing I think we can agree on and save us all a little time.  The word “diversity” was no place to be found in the Bama playbook last season.  This year, it is a must.

Ironically, when you look at Numerology, the number 3 has a meaning that goes back to overcoming duplicity.  Duplicity is a word that accurately describes Alabama when it comes to the identity of this team: at times hot, at times cold.

Three is the heavenly number, representing soul, as four represents body.  Together, the two equal seven (3+4=7) and form the hebdomad.  Again, very ironic considering Alabama looks to be 7-0 Saturday night.

Numerology also deals with Life Paths, and Life Path No. 3 deals with creativity, a trait McElwain has to demonstrate from the booth for this 3:30 kickoff on CBS.

Hey, don’t get caught up in the last three paragraphs.  The number three is closely associated with the birth sign Leo, and I happened to be born under that sign as well.   Once again, I digress...

Back to the real world...

Ole Miss looks to be one of the 3 hardest opponents Alabama has had to face to date.  I see them having an advantage over Alabama in 3 of their units: defensive line, special teams, and wide receivers.

That said, look for Ole Miss to need 3 scoring drives to beat Alabama when this game comes close to its end.

Alabama 38, Ole Miss 21