College Football 2011 Predictions:11 Unranked Teams That End Up in the Top 25
Just as sure as teams drop completely out of the preseason Top 25, never to be seen or heard from again, other teams rise up and either mildly surprise or completely shock us ultimately finishing among the best 25 teams in the nation.
Among the surprise finishers in 2010 were NC State, Tulsa, Maryland, UCF, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Nevada all who didn’t figure into many preseason Top 25 rankings.
So, who will make a similar climb and manage nine or 10 wins in a season that is expected to be less productive?
The following slideshow attempts to identify 11 of these potential surprises that will become an important part of the fabric of the 2011 college football season.
As an important note, the ESPN CFB Live Preseason Top 25 Poll (released just last week) is being used in this analysis; the most significant change in this ranking from ESPN’s previous early preseason listing is Georgia (who was No. 18) dropping completely out and West Virginia (previously unranked) being added at No. 24.
This obviously effects a discussion of who might be in the final Top 25 that wasn’t in the preseason rankings.
Michigan
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The Wolverines return a whopping 20 starters in 2011 (tied for the second most returnees nationally) including QB Denard Robinson and leading receiver Roy Roundtree.
Rich Rod is out and Brady Hoke is in, but, can Michigan finish among the Top 25 teams for the first time since 2007?
One of the biggest challenges will be revamping a defense that ranked a dismal No. 108 nationally in scoring.
It will more than likely take nine wins for Michigan to be ranked by season’s end which means, at bare minimum, the Wolverines must beat at least one of the four most difficult opponents on their slate (of course if they lose one of the “other” games, which include road trips to Illinois and Iowa, they will be forced to knock off two).
A victory in a bowl game could get the number up to nine as well.
The ”big four” contests consist of a Week 2 visit from Notre Dame, a Week 8 road trip to in-state rival Michigan State and then a season-ending homestand hosting Nebraska and then Ohio State.
Of note from Brady Hoke’s prior two head coaching positions: he took over at Ball State in 2003 and took a team that went 6-6 in 2002 to a 4-8 record in 2003 (in fact, it was 2007 before the Cardinals had a winning record) and he took over at San Diego State in 2009 improving a team that went 2-10 in 2008 to 4-8 in 2009.
The Wolverines went 7-6 in 2010; the question is whether Hoke will take Michigan backwards or forwards in his first year in Ann Arbor.
Miami (OH)
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In one of the most stunning reversals of fortune in college football last season coach Michael Haywood took his Red Hawks from a 1-11 mark in 2009 to a triumphant 10-4 record in 2010.
Though Haywood is gone, replaced by Don Treadwell who most recently served as the offensive coordinator at Michigan State, back on campus in Oxford are 18 starters (tied for fourth nationally) from the 2010 team.
Notably, among the returns are QB Zac Dysert and his No. 2 target WR Nick Harwell; good news for a team that was ranked No. 32 in passing yards (as opposed to No. 113 in rushing yards).
The defense, which ranked No. 44 in scoring, loses only two starters, both in the secondary.
The RedHawks 10 win season in 2010 wasn’t enough to achieve a place in the final AP Poll (though they did receive 21 votes) so it would be prudent to assert that a minimum of 10 wins are necessary to try again in 2011.
To achieve this mark Miami will have to run the tables on the conference schedule, beat Army in Oxford and find a precious win either at Missouri, at Minnesota or at home against Cincinnati.
Again, a MAC championship victory and/or a bowl win certainly wouldn’t hurt.
Regardless, finding a way into the Top 25 won’t be easy for a team from the MAC.
The last time the RedHawks finished a season ranked was in 2003 went they went 13-1, won the MAC title and beat Louisville 49-28 in the GMAC bowl. Their only loss that season was a 21-3 loss at Iowa.
If you yearn for more historical perspective on the school that is the “cradle of coaches”, Miami has only been ranked in the final polls five times in its history.
USC
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Yes, the Trojans are banned from both the BCS and postseason play in 2011 but that doesn’t mean they can’t be ranked in the AP poll.
In fact, under similar circumstances in 2010, USC was ranked No. 14 in the AP Preseason Poll, No. 16 in the Week 2 poll, No. 18 in the Week 3 poll, No. 20 in the Week 4 poll, No. 18 in Week 5 and then dropped from the rankings.
So, why not the Trojans in the final AP Poll in 2011?
USC returns 13 total starters in 2011 including QB Matt Barkley, WR Robert Woods and RB Marc Tyler.
As far as the schedule is concerned the three biggest tests include road trips to Notre Dame and Oregon and then hosting Stanford at home in the Coliseum.
It’s hard to believe that the Trojans are only two seasons removed from reeling off an impressive seven consecutive Pac-10 titles (and back-to-back national crowns in 2003-04).
This all means that USC is hardly a program devoid of talent, speed and the confidence that only a program that wins big and wins often can provide.
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BYU
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Exercising its first year of independence, BYU’s 2011 schedule is a hodgepodge of WAC teams, former MWC foes and a few of BCS schools.
The Cougars return 17 total starters in 2011 including most of the offensive skill positions, almost the entire offensive line and all but a few of the defenders who combined for a No. 32 rank in scoring defense.
Yes, BYU’s 7-6 mark in 2010 was indicative of a “rebuilding” year.
The key games in the Cougars 2011 campaign include the opener at Ole Miss followed by an immediate trip to Austin to face Texas (intriguing), a mid-October visit to Oregon State and then a late October meeting with TCU at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.
Even if the Cougars were to drop three of these four games, nine wins would still be a distinct possibility, especially if a bowl victory is possible.
This is a scenario that has just recently made a great deal more likely with the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl extending BYU a provisional bowl bid just this week (the only provision being that BYU can achieve bowl eligibility which seems highly likely).
BYU finished the 2009 season ranked No. 12 in the final AP Polls and had finished ranked in every season prior from 2006 onwards.
It is certainly not a stretch to see the Cougars among the Top 25 by the season’s end.
Pittsburgh
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Todd Graham takes over as the head coach at Pitt with 16 starters returning from the 2010 Panther squad that finished 8-5 and unranked.
Key returnees include QB Tino Sunseri, No. 2 rusher Ray Graham and No. 2 receiver Mike Shanahan. The bulk of offensive line is back as is most of the defense that earned a No. 15 ranking in scoring, allowing opponents an average of only 19 points per game.
What Pitt struggled with in 2010 was scoring points. They ranked No. 67 overall in scoring and averaged 26.3 points per game.
Fortuitously, offense is exactly what Todd Graham had great success with at Tulsa; the Golden Hurricanes ranked No. 13 in passing yards, No. 15 in rushing yards and No. 6 in scoring last season. All this resulted in a 10-3 record and Tulsa’s first final AP ranking in 20 years, with a defense that ranked No. 85.
With the Panthers returning a lot of experienced skill offensively and the bulk of a very good defense 2011 looks promising.
The schedule won’t make it easy though and key games include an early road trip to Iowa followed immediately by a home game versus Notre Dame and then late season road trips to Louisville and West Virginia.
The Panthers are going to have to win a couple of these tough games to get to nine or 10 wins.
Pitt retains much of the team that was thought to be a dark horse BCS contender in 2010; it will be interesting to see what Graham can do with the Panthers in his first season.
Houston
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Last season the Cougars hopes to win a conference title and become the first ever BCS buster from CUSA went down in flames when both QB Case Keenum and his backup suffered season-ending injuries in a Week 3 game at UCLA.
Now that the NCAA has granted Keenum an additional of year of eligibility Houston’s hope for something bigger is at least temporarily revived.
Besides Keenum, 14 other starters return including the top receiver and top rusher; most disturbing is the loss of four members of a secondary that struggled to a No. 68 ranking in pass defense and a No. 96 ranking in scoring defense.
But, what’s most intriguing about the Cougars is their schedule, which looks quite agreeable, especially if they can manage to repeat the offensive success enjoyed while Keenum was under center.
Keys are the opener in Houston against UCLA and then back-to-back tests at the very end of the season against offensively potent SMU at home and then on the road against a good Tulsa squad.
In between game one and games 11 and 12 are nine opponents Houston might have a very good chance of beating.
Can the offense fire on all cylinders and can the defense improve, even marginally?
If so, ten wins is definitely possible, especially with the help of a championship game victory and possibly a bowl win.
Houston hasn’t been ranked in a final poll in over 20 years; their last honors came in 1990 when they finished ranked No. 10 with a 10-1 record including a 62-45 win over Arizona State in the Coca Cola Classic in Tokyo, Japan.
The Cougars only loss that season was a 45-24 loss to Texas in Austin; both were members of the then living and breathing Southwest Conference.
Air Force
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With Utah and BYU gone, TCU around for just one more season and Boise State as the newcomer, the face of the youthful Mountain West conference is considerably altered for 2011.
The Falcons, who were ranked No. 2 nationally in rushing yards in 2010, return the top two rushers from last season and all but two of the offensive linemen who led the way.
The Air Force defense ranked No. 28 in scoring in 2010 and returns almost everyone with the exception of a fairly significant loss at linebacker.
If the Falcons want to finish the season ranked for the first time since 1998 (when they went 12-1 and finished No. 13 as WAC champions) they will have to manage a minimum of nine wins.
Looking at their schedule, this seems doable, but, they must win all their games and beat at least one of the following opponents: TCU at home in Week 2 or on the road against Navy, Boise State and Notre Dame.
Again, a bowl victory would certainly aid the Falcons in getting to nine or 10 wins in 2011.
NC State
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The Wolfpack finished 2010 9-3 and ranked No. 25 in the final AP Poll, NC State’s first season-ending ranking since 2002.
However, even returning seven offensive and eight defensive starters (not including QB Russell Wilson in his second season with the MLB Colorado Rockies) hasn’t coaxed the pollsters to include NC State among the preseason Top 25.
Yes, the top two receivers are also gone but NC State is stacked at offensive line and has plenty of experienced receivers and QB Michael Glennon to reload offensively.
On the other side of the ball the No. 29 ranked defense stays virtually intact.
What is most promising for NC State in 2011 is a schedule that is somewhat manageable; Virginia Tech and Miami (FL) are not on the schedule at all and North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Maryland are all home games.
The Wolfpack must travel to Florida State to face the Seminoles in late October, which is a must-win only in terms of an ACC title run.
Nine wins? A definite possibility.
Penn State
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The Nittany Lions are a curious omission in the latest preseason Top 25.
Penn State returns 16 total starters in 2011 and though the top rusher Evan Royster is gone, the No. 2 back returns and at the end of the day the Nittany Lions were more successful through the air than on the ground in 2010 (they just have to decide on one quarterback, or two).
Other significant losses are two linebackers and three members of the offensive line.
Though there certainly is some retooling to do in Happy Valley, it is by no means overwhelming or undoable.
The schedule is front loaded where Penn State could realistically be 8-1 (the most probable loss being to Alabama at home in Week 2) going into the final three-game stretch at home against Nebraska, at Ohio State and at Wisconsin.
Nine wins means a win over one of the last three (even more realistic depending on what happens to the Buckeyes) or a bowl victory.
Before dropping to 7-6 in 2010, Penn State went 41-13 over the previous five seasons; the road back into the postseason poll hardly seems that unrealistic.
Georgia
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The Bulldogs 6-7 2010 campaign seemed to begin to be forgiven and forgotten when Georgia appeared on some preseason Top 25 lists earlier in the year (ESPN had the Bulldogs at No. 18 in a February ranking).
But, at least in ESPN’s latest CFB Live poll, Georgia is back out of the top teams for 2011.
The Bulldogs return 17 starters in 2011; the most serious losses are at receiver and linebacker.
Not unlike other teams on this list one of the most compelling arguments for Georgia’s return to the halls of the Top 25 is its schedule.
Despite a tantalizing game against Boise State in the opener; LSU, Alabama and Arkansas are all completely off Georgia’s 2011 schedule.
South Carolina, Mississippi State, Auburn and Kentucky are at home while road trips are to Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vandy, Georgia Tech and Florida in Jacksonville.
2010 was the worst football finish for Georgia since 1996 when the Bulldogs skidded to a 5-6 finish; up until last season Georgia had been ranked in the final AP poll every year since 1997.
If Georgia starts playing like Georgia again the 2011 schedule presents the perfect opportunity to get back on track.
Miami (FL)
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Ok, so what happens in Coral Gables in 2011?
Randy Shannon is gone. Al Golden is in charge. QB Jacory Harris is back (but not assured a starting job), the No. 2 running back returns, the No. 2 receiver is back; three members of the defensive front seven and three members of the secondary are gone.
The schedule is tough: at Maryland, at Virginia Tech, at North Carolina and a big home game against an Ohio State team that won’t have a vested coach or the “body art five”.
Can they manage nine wins?
This seems less likely than do some of the other 10 candidates on this list, but this is a team that is less than one year from nine wins, a team with a very eager talented coach, an athletically gifted team that is flying pleasantly under the college football radar.
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