NFL Free Agency Speculation: The FA Each Team Can't Afford to Lose
The NFL lockout may have delayed the start of free agency, but it can’t disguise the potential for big changes when the market re-opens. Big names like Peyton Manning and Michael Vick may have been franchised, but stars like Nnamdi Asomugha and Braylon Edwards will still be available for a team with enough money.
For every free agent signing, though, another team loses a valuable piece. Which players are too vital to let go, and which may depart anyway in a volatile market?
Herein, the single most important player for every team to re-sign this offseason.
Buffalo Bills: CB Drayton Florence
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Drayton Florence edges out fellow starting DB Donte Whitner as the top priority on Buffalo’s free agent list. Florence isn’t a star as CBs go, but he notched three interceptions last season and can be a solid complementary piece as Buffalo looks to rebuild their defense.
Buffalo may benefit here from the presence of several other, superior corners on the free agent market. That situation should keep Florence’s price at a reasonable enough level for the Bills to re-sign him.
Miami Dolphins: RB Ronnie Brown
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With guard Richie Incognito re-signed, Ronnie Brown becomes Miami’s big question mark. With Brown and Ricky Williams both facing free agency, the Dolphins would be better off keeping at least one of their top RBs, and Brown’s facility with the Wildcat formation and superior receiving ability make him the preferable choice.
Brown is turning 30 and coming off a down year (3.7 yards per carry, a career worst), so he can’t expect star money on the open market. Assuming Miami chooses to pursue him, they should have a good chance at keeping him.
New England Patriots: OT Matt Light
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Even if New England uses one of its four early draft picks on a left tackle of the future, Light (an 11-year vet) will provide valuable depth and experience. If the Pats don’t get a high-level rookie to replace him, his presence becomes even more vital.
Legitimate left tackles, even middle-of-the-road ones, are hard to find, so the Pats may have to pay more than Light’s age and performance would suggest if they want to keep him.
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New York Jets: WR Santonio Holmes
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After establishing himself as Mark Sanchez’s go-to target for game-saving TDs, Santonio Holmes edges out Braylon Edwards and Brad Smith as the single most important of New York’s free agent wideouts.
The likelihood that at least one of the trio will be gone next season underscores the importance of keeping Holmes in the interest of continuity.
The bright side for the Jets is that while they stand to lose a terrific wideout, the fact that several high-end receivers (notably including Terrell Owens and Santana Moss) are available should keep the bidding on Holmes from becoming prohibitive.
Baltimore Ravens: CB Josh Wilson
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Josh Wilson’s importance to the Ravens lies not so much in his own abilities (he’s a respectable starting corner, but nothing special) as the position he plays. With Chris Carr and Fabian Washington also up for free agency, Baltimore can’t afford to have all three depart.
Wilson (three INTs last season) is the best of that uninspiring trio, but he’s not likely to be in such high demand that the Ravens can’t bring him back.
Cincinnati Bengals: CB Johnathan Joseph
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Even with Joseph and running mate Leon Hall having a down year, the Bengals pass defense wasn’t a liability last season. If Joseph returns to form in 2011, he’ll be a more-than-capable starter.
At age 27, Joseph is squarely in his prime as a cornerback and will probably get significant interest from other teams.
On the other hand, the Bengals more than likely would’ve extended his contract had they not been prevented from doing so by a rule governing salary escalation (a rule that also affected DeAngelo Williams and Tamba Hali, among others).
The odds are that Cincinnati, well aware of what it has in Joseph, will spend what it takes to keep him in orange and black.
Cleveland Browns: OT John St. Clair
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Injuries are beginning to take their toll on 33-year-old John St. Clair, who missed five games last season. Even so, he’s got enough left in the tank to help a shaky O-line, and with LB D’Qwell Jackson already re-signed he becomes Cleveland’s top priority.
St. Clair has too many miles on him to command a very high price, so unless the Browns feel like they can afford an upgrade they have a good chance to keep him.
Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Ike Taylor
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For all the talent on the Steelers’ defense, they haven’t had a real top-flight CB since Rod Woodson’s prime. Ike Taylor isn’t the best cover man in the league, but he’s a good fit in Pittsburgh’s system and a leader whose loss would be keenly felt by a shaky group of corners.
Because Taylor (whose greatest value lies in his physicality and run support) is so well-suited to Pittsburgh’s defense in particular, he’s unlikely to command the same exorbitant money on the open market that some starting corners do.
Assuming Pittsburgh wants to keep him, they should have a reasonable shot at doing so.
Houston Texans: FB Vonta Leach
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Houston already has a leg up on their free agent pool, having re-signed both TE Owen Daniels and DL Shaun Cody. For Arian Foster’s sake, though, they’d do well to bring back hard-hitting fullback Vonta Leach.
Fullbacks aren’t exactly a prized commodity in today’s NFL, but Leach is one of the best in the league. The Texans may look for a lower-cost alternative rather than pay market value for a secondary player.
Indianapolis Colts: RB Joseph Addai
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The Colts’ ground game has been a joke in recent seasons, but veteran Joseph Addai is still worth keeping around. He knows the offense inside and out, and his pass-catching talents keep him relevant even with Donald Brown on the roster.
Addai is about to turn 28, which in running back years makes him a risky addition for many teams. He’s a good bet to stick with the Colts, who tendered him an offer prior to the lockout.
Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Mike Sims-Walker
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Jacksonville’s receiving corps is just starting to recover from the loss of Jimmy Smith six years ago. While Mike Thomas’ emergence is a good sign, the Jaguars would take a big hit if Mike Sims-Walker, their second-leading wideout last season, departed in free agency.
Sims-Walker, who has made noises about wanting to join Brandon Marshall in Miami, may not be easy to sign. Jacksonville still has a puncher’s chance, though, because the glut of WRs on the market should keep prices from spiraling too high.
Tennessee Titans: DE Jason Babin
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After five years as a journeyman situational pass rusher, Jason Babin came into his own last year with 44 tackles and 12.5 sacks as a full-time starter. Tennessee needs its defense in top form to help offset the chaos at QB, and the loss of Babin would be a serious blow.
With a large influx of DE/OLB types arriving via the draft, the market for Babin (who will likely be expensive after his breakout year) may not include that many teams. Tennessee stands a good chance to have him back in 2011.
Denver Broncos: DT Ronald Fields
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The real answer to this question, of course, is that Champ Bailey was the vital free agent for the Broncos to keep. With Bailey safely re-signed, though, the next priority becomes retaining Fields, one of the few competent players on a terrible defense.
Fields is a journeyman-caliber player and borderline starter, so he won’t likely be in very high demand. Denver should have no trouble keeping him around for 2011, assuming they choose to do so.
Kansas City Chiefs: LB Tamba Hali
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Coming off a 14.5-sack season, Tamba Hali might be the single most important player on a rising young defense. He’s an explosive playmaker whom the Chiefs would have no chance of replacing adequately should he depart.
Mike Vrabel’s ridiculous arrest earlier this month only underscores Kansas City’s need to keep the young core of their defense intact rather than relying on a deteriorating veteran group. It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs’ brass making such an obvious mistake as letting Hali slip away.
Oakland Raiders: CB Nnamdi Asomugha
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The most coveted free agent on the market and one of the NFL’s elite corners, Nnamdi Asomugha would be indispensable on any roster. In Oakland, where the defense has carried the team through years of unreliable offense, he’s doubly important.
Oakland will take its shot at keeping Asomugha, but he’s going to command ungodly amounts of money. The Raiders will be lucky if they can find enough cash to keep him in silver and black next season.
San Diego Chargers: RB Darren Sproles
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Vincent Jackson is franchised and Eric Weddle is a restricted free agent, but Darren Sproles has no strings attached for the San Diego Chargers. Unless the Bolts want to lose one of the most explosive weapons on a potent offense, they’ll have to pay up to keep Sproles in 2011.
Sproles is unlikely ever to be a No. 1 option as a running back, and as he may get No. 1 option money on the open market, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Chargers let him go.
Even so, he’s so dangerous as a receiver, returner and change-of-pace runner that they should think hard about how to keep him around for next season.
Dallas Cowboys: SS Gerald Sensabaugh
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Dallas’ pass defense ranked just 26th in the league last season, so it can ill-afford to lose one of its few DBs who can actually play. Gerald Sensabaugh isn’t a star at SS, but considering that his running mate last year was converted corner Alan Ball, the Cowboys would be ill-equipped to replace him if he departs.
It’s a big year for free-agent safeties, and many teams are looking for help at the position. There’s a decent chance Sensabaugh returns to Dallas, but they’ll have to pay for the privilege.
New York Giants: LB Keith Bulluck
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Keith Bulluck isn’t the best player among the Giants’ free agents, but he’s the one New York needs the most. While Ahmad Bradshaw and Mathias Kiwanuka play positions at which New York has other talented performers, Bulluck is the Giants’ only viable starting option at his OLB spot.
If New York thinks it can find a superior OLB in free agency, Bulluck does become expendable. With the draft thin at the position, though, there’s a good chance that the Giants will have no way to upgrade and will be best served by making sure the veteran Bulluck stays on for 2011.
Philadelphia Eagles: SS Quintin Mikell
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With Michael Vick franchised and Brent Celek re-signed, the Eagles offense should be back intact next season. Defensively, though, Philly could lose several starters, of whom the toughest to replace will be SS Quintin Mikell.
Mikell is arguably the most talented of a bumper crop of free agent safeties (at least now that Bob Sanders is off the market). He’ll likely wind up with a fat contract, and likely from someone other than the Eagles.
Washington Redskins: WR Santana Moss
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Santana Moss may have a lot of miles on him, but he’s coming off a career high 93 catches in 2010, so it’s not like he’s ready to be put out to pasture just yet. As the only reliable playmaker on the Redskins’ offense, he’s vital to any hope the team has of improving under a (presumably) new QB next season.
Re-signing Moss is going to take some money, but Daniel Snyder certainly hasn’t been averse to throwing around cash in the past. Unless Moss decides he’s had his fill of Washington, he should be back next season.
Chicago Bears: C Olin Kreutz
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On an offensive line that’s been in disarray for a few years now, Olin Kreutz has been the one reliable constant. He’s no longer a lock for the Pro Bowl every year, but he’s still the Bears’ most trustworthy blocker.
The market for an aging lineman who only plays one position, even one with Kreutz’s track record, isn’t likely to be an excessively expensive one. As long as Chicago makes a good-faith effort, they should be able to retain Kreutz’s services.
Detroit Lions: CB Chris Houston
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Although the arrival of Ndamukong Suh made a good start toward rebuilding the line, the back seven of Detroit’s defense needs a lot of help. As such, they’re ill-equipped to withstand the loss of CB Chris Houston, the top cover man in a weak secondary.
Houston isn’t a shutdown corner by any stretch, but he’ll still command a significant amount of money on the open market. Detroit had better be prepared to pay up if they want to have a shot at keeping him.
Green Bay Packers: DE Cullen Jenkins
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Injuries limited Cullen Jenkins to just eight starts in 2010, but he still piled up seven sacks. A rare DE who can make big plays as a 3-4 end, Jenkins becomes especially important to a Green Bay team that must assume Johnny Jolly’s suspension will continue through 2011.
It’s hard to imagine that the prospect of another Super Bowl ring won’t help the Packers convince Jenkins to stay. He should be back in Green Bay next season.
Minnesota Vikings: WR Sidney Rice
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Now that Chad Greenway’s been franchised, the Vikings don’t stand to lose anyone on defense who couldn’t be replaced. The same may not be true on offense, as youngster Sidney Rice may depart from a receiving corps that will have to be in top form as the Vikings try to find a viable solution at QB.
Percy Harvin’s recurring migraine problems only underscore the importance to the Vikings of keeping Rice on the roster.
At 24, Rice is a great deal younger than the other prominent free agent wideouts. He’ll be able to command a serious contract, but Minnesota may decide they have little choice but to pay up.
Atlanta Falcons: CB Brent Grimes
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A close call over O-linemen Harvey Dahl and Justin Blalock, Brent Grimes is the most talented of many potential free agents for Atlanta. He’s coming off his first Pro Bowl appearance, and has recorded 11 INTs in the last two seasons.
Grimes is 28 years old and a proven commodity at corner, so he’s likely to be exceedingly expensive, whichever team he chooses. Atlanta has some chance to keep him, but they’ll have to commit an awful lot of money to do it.
Carolina Panthers: DE Charles Johnson
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Losing DeAngelo Williams would certainly be a blow to the Carolina offense, but Jonathan Stewart would be there to pick up some of the slack. The same can’t be said for the potential loss of Charles Johnson, whose 11.5 sacks were a rare bright spot on a woeful defense a season ago.
Carolina will benefit here from the glut of pass rushers in the draft, as many teams who might otherwise pursue Johnson may fill their DE needs with a rookie. That should leave the Panthers in a good position to keep Johnson.
New Orleans Saints: OG Carl Nicks
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A close call over defensive leader Darren Sharper, Carl Nicks gets the pick here because of his youth. As difficult as it would be to replace Sharper, the Saints will have to cross that bridge in the next couple of years anyway, whereas retaining the 26-year-old Nicks will solidify one OG spot for the foreseeable future.
Nicks will likely be pursued pretty heavily in free agency, considering the small number of impact linemen available. With the Saints having several other important players to re-sign, there’s a good chance they just won’t have the money to keep Nicks in New Orleans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB Barrett Ruud
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Barrett Ruud has led the Buccaneers in tackles for four straight seasons, which should give some idea of his importance to this defense. Productive 28-year-old middle linebackers aren’t an easy commodity to replace, either.
With the Bucs also trying to find the money to keep Kellen Winslow, re-signing Ruud could be a tight squeeze. Even so, he’s worth the money he’ll earn, and Tampa Bay should be able to find enough cash to keep him on the roster.
Arizona Cardinals: WR Steve Breaston
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With the departure of Anquan Boldin last season, Steve Breaston stepped into the No. 2 role behind superstar Larry Fitzgerald. With the QB situation in disarray (and with Early Doucet also on the market), the Cardinals can ill afford more turnover at the WR position.
With so many elite wideouts coming on the market this year, Breaston may get lost in the shuffle. The Cardinals are unlikely to be priced out of re-signing him.
St. Louis Rams: WR Mark Clayton
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Before tearing up his knee last season, Mark Clayton was as effective a wideout as Sam Bradford had available. The Rams hope to add a legitimate No. 1 WR, but they’ll also benefit from keeping Clayton around as a complementary option.
St. Louis shouldn’t have too much competition for Clayton’s services, as the knee injury will have many teams shying away. Expect him to be back with the Rams in 2011.
San Francisco 49ers: DT Aubrayo Franklin
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The Niners may look to play more 4-3 defensive fronts in 2011, which will put a premium on defensive tackles for a squad that’s only needed one in recent years.
Aubrayo Franklin has played admirably holding the middle as a nose tackle, and with few other options behind him, San Francisco would be well served to bring him back.
Franklin will be one of the better DTs available, but his lack of raw stats (a byproduct of the nose tackle role) should keep his price affordable. San Francisco has a reasonable chance to re-sign him.
Seattle Seahawks: DT Brandon Mebane
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Losing veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck would be a blow, but he’s on his last legs anyway and could be replaced with another competent veteran. Tougher to replace would be the youth and promise of 26-year-old Brandon Mebane.
Mebane missed four games due to injury last season, but he’s a solid DT with a lot of years ahead of him. Seattle will have a tough time keeping him as they try to improve their roster in other areas.
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