2011 NFL Mock Draft: How the Top 10 Should Play out
With just one day until the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft, rumors are abundant and teams are finalizing their decisions.
Last year at this time we knew who was going number one. This year, we don't, although most experts seem to believe the Panthers will take Auburn quarterback Cam Newton
To clarify the title, this is how the draft should play out, not necessarily how I think it will play out. Hint: Cam Newton doesn't go number one. I'll get right to it.
Carolina Panthers: Marcell Dareus
1 of 10
There is no Ndamukong Suh in this draft (or even a Sam Bradford), but Dareus is the best player on the board.
Carolina also has serious issues on the interior of their defensive line, so Dareus represents a need as well as the best value.
I also think Clausen deserves another season to prove himself. If he fails, the Panthers might very well end up with the first pick in 2012 as well and the rights to Andrew Luck, Stanford's can't-miss quarterback prospect.
He will be a much better pro than Newton.
Denver Broncos: Patrick Peterson
2 of 10
If the Panthers were smart enough to take Dareus and not reach on the quarterback position like so many other franchises do in the draft, the Broncos would jump all over Peterson as Champ Bailey's heir apparent.
Von Miller and A.J. Green would be options if Denver didn't spend a 2009 first-round pick on outside linebacker Robert Ayers and a 2010 first-round pick on receiver Demaryius Thomas.
The Broncos did just re-sign Bailey to four-year extension in February, but a defensive backfield with both Peterson and Bailey would be a huge boost to Denver's defensive issues.
And with Bailey aging, Peterson also represents a great pick for the future.
Buffalo Bills: Von Miller
3 of 10
It's rare to see an outside linebacker go this high, but this year's draft is weak and Miller is one of the consensus top-four players available.
The Bills need serious help in their front seven and with Dareus likely gone, Miller is easily the best pick and one of the few the Bills hopefully don't screw up.
The Panthers pick should not affect Buffalo's decision unless they take Newton and the Broncos take Peterson, in which case Buffalo should be ecstatic to draft Dareus.
Newton should not be a consideration here with the other players available.
Ryan Fitzpatrick can win football games and while he's likely not a championship quarterback, the Bills can improve their record with him under center.
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Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green
4 of 10
With Terrell Owens and likely Chad Ochocinco gone, the Bengals need a wide receiver badly.
Green will be the best player on the board in most scenarios and maybe adding him could convince Carson Palmer to stay in Cincinnati. Green has star written all over him.
There are rumors that the Bengals want to trade out of this pick, move down and draft a quarterback with all the uncertainty surrounding Palmer but if they stay at No. 4, Green should be their man.
Arizona Cardinals: Blaine Gabbert
5 of 10
John Skelton and Max Hall were drafted last season but unlike Jimmy Clausen, they were late picks who the team didn't invest much into.
Skelton has the arm strength and physical ability to develop into a starter down the line but if the Cardinals don't believe he can take the reigns this season, they will likely go with Gabbert.
If Patrick Peterson is available here, which he will be based on most experts' mock drafts, he should be the pick for the Cardinals to replace Greg Toler at cornerback. Then Arizona can bring in a veteran quarterback and try to develop Skelton.
If that fails, they can draft another quarterback next season. Gabbert is not a can't-miss prospect; Peterson is. I don't think Peterson should fall out of the top four, but he likely will.
Cleveland Browns: Julio Jones
6 of 10
The Browns do have a need at defensive end and, with both Robert Quinn and Da'Quan Bowers available at this spot, could go in that direction.
But the Browns have a young quarterback to develop in Colt McCoy and zero receiving talent to help him progress. Jones is a need pick for this team if they want to get the best out of McCoy this season and down the line.
None of the players the Browns covet seem likely to go in the top five, but it would be difficult to fault them taking either Quinn or Bowers.
I just think if they pass up Jones, they are leaving McCoy in a no-success situation. And with the faith this team has put into McCoy, leaving him without options would be a huge mistake.
San Francisco 49ers: Da'Quan Bowers
7 of 10
Most mock drafts have Patrick Peterson in this spot and while I think that's what will end up happening, Peterson would be a huge steal if teams let him drop to San Francisco.
This isn't what will happen, it's what should happen and Peterson should not be available here.
In that case, the options become North Carolina DE Robert Quinn, Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers and Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara.
I like Amukamara but he's not Peterson and probably isn't one of the top seven players in this draft. San Francisco will have multiple options here, but I think Bowers is the right pick over both Amukamara and Quinn.
Quinn would also be a solid pick. I really think they'll get Peterson though.
Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley
8 of 10
Cam Newton is unlikely to be on the board at this pick and even if he was, Tennesee's failure with Vince Young might make them wary of taking another inaccurate, running quarterback.
Nick Fairley is good value at this spot and the risks that come with him are less pronounced at eight than at one, where he was projected to go initially.
Fairley had one good season in college and isn't a completely clean prospect, but the Titans have been looking for somebody to replace Albert Haynesworth and Fairley seems like their guy.
There have also been rumors of the Titans going quarterback with this pick and they like both Jake Locker and Andy Dalton.
I can definitely see Tennessee trading into the back of round one to pick Dalton or taking Locker here, considering he would have gone over Bradford to the Rams last season if he came out.
But Tennessee would rather get both Fairley and Dalton than Locker, which they can do if they move into the back end of the first round. Two birds, one stone.
Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith
9 of 10
Dallas' offensive line is a mess and after watching Tony Romo go down last season, the Cowboys will want to protect his blind side. Enter Smith, the best lineman in this draft.
Amukamara is also a possibility at this spot to replace Mike Jenkins and while I believe he's a better prospect than Smith, albeit barely, the Cowboys have a bigger need at left tackle.
Smith may not be ready to start by Week 1 but his size (6'5'', 307) and athleticism make him a very intriguing player as the 2011 season rolls along.
With the lack of options along the Dallas offensive line, he could be in the starting lineup by midseason at the latest.
Washington Redskins: Cam Newton
10 of 10
If Newton falls out of the top nine, which I think should happen but don't think will happen, he becomes an intriguing pick for the Redskins. I like Newton more than most and see a decent amount of Daunte Culpepper in him, hopefully minus the injuries.
If the Redskins hold onto Donovan McNabb, he can take Newton under his wing if he so chooses.
Don't get me wrong, the likely scenario tomorrow night is one where Newton is drafted by the Panthers.
But I don't agree with that pick and think Gabbert should go ahead of Newton, who is more of a project. This just seems like a great fit.
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