Premier League: Breaking Down the Relegation Battle
On one hand, you could say that this Premier League season has been one of the most forgettable Premier League seasons in the new millennium. The eventual champion would end up being the weakest in recent memory – evidenced by the fact that they could win it with less than 80 points. The complete lack of consistency in almost every team is a result of the general dearth of quality in the league this season (which actually holds true for all of European football, apart from La Liga’s top two).
On the other hand, you could say that the lack of clear cut favourites for anything (be it the title, European places or relegation) has made this one of the most exciting seasons in recent times. There have been no unequivocally outstanding contributions at the top, and the gap has been closed among those clubs outside the newly minted Big Six (created from a relative gap closure of its own). No fixture has been a guaranteed three points for anyone, and the league has not had that one universally terrible doormat of a team.
Most teams have four games remaining. And as things stand, 12 teams are not wholly out of the relegation woods as yet. So here is a rundown of the 12 teams that are still not quite home and dry, roughly in reverse order, with my eventual picks of the three that will most likely end up in the Championship next season.
The Eventual Mid-Table Contingent (You Can Relax, Just Don’t Screw Anything Up)
1 of 6
Stoke (42 pts)
A comfortable win against Wolves (H) on Tuesday has Stoke eight points above the relegation zone with four games remaining.They fulfil every negative stereotype about the English game, but hey, they’ve carved out a pretty effective niche for themselves.
Newcastle (41 pts)
They’ve got two very winnable games at home to Birmingham and West Brom, and two very losable games away to Liverpool and Chelsea. Nevertheless, even one win out of the four should easily see them to safety. For Newcastle, it’s more about the summer and whether Mike Ashley will hold onto the Andy Carroll money and in the process cement his reputation as the most loathed owner in the Premier League.
Sunderland (41 pts)
Ended their nine-match winless run against Wigan (H) last weekend. Their four remaining games are all against teams in the bottom 12. Two of these are at home, with one against Wolves, the worst away team in the league. Despite both Danny Welbeck and Asamoah Gyan picking up hamstring injuries against Wigan, Sunderland should be too far ahead on points to be seriously worried.
Aston Villa (41 pts)
It’s been a disappointing season for Villa, but they’ve picked up seven points from their last three games, and Darren Bent has largely come up with the goals when called upon. While the football world wishes Gerard Houllier a return to all things good following his admittance to hospital with a heart condition (remember Liverpool v Leeds in 2001?), stand in Gary McAllister should have enough at his disposal to ensure Villa’s survival, even with difficult games against Arsenal (A) and Liverpool (H).
The Survivors (You’ll Make It but You May Have to Earn It)
2 of 6
West Bromwich Albion (40 pts)
Despite the ridiculous sacking of Roberto Di Matteo back in February, replacement Roy Hodgson has only lost against Chelsea at home since taking over. West Brom are done with the hard part of their run in, with two very creditable draws against Arsenal (H) and Tottenham (A), and wins against Liverpool (H) and Sunderland (A) as four of their last five results.
Now they just have to see the job through, and a single win from their remaining games against Aston Villa (H), Wolves (A), Everton (H) and Newcastle (A) should be enough.
Fulham (39 pts)
At the time of writing, Fulham has only played 33 games, with their game in hand due to occur later today against Bolton (H). Even a loss here would not put them in too much trouble, as they would still be five points above the relegation zone.
They do have a somewhat challenging run in, with the visits of Liverpool and Arsenal to come. But Fulham have the fourth-best defence in the league (36 goals conceded), as well as the most draws (15), so a similar result against one of Liverpool or Arsenal is a very real possibility.If they can also manage a result from today’s game against Bolton, or their away matches at Sunderland and Birmingham, then safety should not be too much of a concern.
Birmingham (38 pts)
Birmingham has been a difficult side to beat. They’ve amassed 14 draws, second-most in the division. They do have two testing trips to Tottenham and Newcastle, but also two winnable home dates against Fulham and Wolves. St. Andrews has not been an easy place to visit this season, and if Birmingham can muster four points from their remaining fixtures, they ought to be all right. Plus, it would be a shame for them to go down after their now fabled Carling Cup triumph.
The Escapees (You’ll Come Through by the Proverbial Skin of Your Teeth)
3 of 6
Blackburn (35 pts)
Blackburn were a tad unlucky to lose to Manchester City on Monday. This has left them in real danger of the drop. Their penultimate fixture is also against Manchester United (H) – a game that could be the one that Man Utd looks to wrap up the title with. On the plus side, they do have the trump card of potential six pointer visits to both West Ham and Wolves. But Blackburn have been awful away from Ewood Park, with the worst away goal differential in the top flight.
Nevertheless, their games against West Ham and Wolves are of massive consequence. They will probably need a win from one of them (or at least two draws), as well as a result against Bolton (H) next weekend if they lose against Man Utd. It will be tight, but other results might just roll their way to squeeze them over the safety threshold.
Wigan (34 pts)
At some point you have to feel for the admirable but somewhat naive Roberto Martinez. Wigan are tied with Birmingham for the least goals scored in the league (34). Yet, on paper at least, Martinez always sends his teams out to attack. In many ways, his commitment to attack makes him a very poor man’s Arsene Wenger, except that his squad of players unsuitable to his task is a result of circumstance, rather than choice.
Wigan have games against Aston Villa (A), Everton (H) and Stoke(A), but potentially the most important is their home clash against West Ham. A win here would all but bury the Hammers, and theoretically give Wigan just enough for safety if they pick up at least a point from their other three games (assuming Blackpool’s results go as expected, more on this in a second). Lose that West Ham game and Wigan are in all kinds of trouble. But if they win it, then life suddenly becomes a whole lot easier.
So with all that said, we move on to the three teams that will most likely be relegated.
Just Missed the Boat: Blackpool (34 Pts)
4 of 6
Remaining games - Stoke (H), Tottenham (A), Bolton (H), Manchester United (A)
Blackpool has by far the most difficult run in of the lot, with trips to Old Trafford and White Hart Lane. On the plus side, their five away wins are in a three way tie for fifth best in the league. But it would still take a brave man to bet against anything other than two defeats against United and Spurs.
Their other two fixtures are at home to Bolton and Stoke – definitely not the easiest sides to play against. We all know about Stoke’s aerial game, and Owen Coyle' Bolton are on a high after ripping Gunner hearts out on the weekend. Though Charlie Adam’s form has dipped somewhat in the last few weeks, his set pieces are as accurate as ever, and Blackpool are going to need them if they want to go to war with Bolton and Stoke.
It may well go down to the wire between Blackpool and Wigan, and don’t be surprised to see them finish level on points. If that is indeed the case, then Blackpool’s potentially inferior goal difference (from a potential thrashing away to Spurs and Man Utd which is likely due to their defence – 70 goals conceded, worst in the league) could see them painfully take the plunge.
The only possible saving grace is that Manchester United could already be champions by the time of their clash, and are therefore likely to field a weaker side, especially if they close out Schalke and reach the Champions League Final.
Of Their Own Making: Wolves (33 Pts)
5 of 6
Remaining games – Birmingham (A), West Brom (H), Sunderland (A), Blackburn (H).
It’s been a season of banality punctuated by brilliance for Wolves, who count Chelsea, both Manchester clubs and Liverpool among their scalps this term, yet for all intents and purposes look Championship bound.
Wolves have a woeful away record, and have made some unforgivable mistakes in defence that have cost them goals and points. Their inconsistency has been at times maddening, and except for Blackpool, they probably have the worst squad in the league.
They are underdogs in pretty much all of their remaining fixtures, and with 11 goals conceded and winless in their last four games, it will be an extremely long shot for them to have a chance at promotion. One wonders if Mick McCarthy has it in him to lead Wolves back to the top flight again in the likely event that they do go down.
Inevitable: West Ham (32 Pts)
6 of 6
Remaining games – Manchester City (A), Blackburn (H), Wigan (A), Sunderland (H)
It would be harsh on FWA Footballer of the Year Scott Parker if West Ham were to end up relegated. But that’s looking increasingly likely, with West Ham entrenched in the relegation zone all season. West Ham has struggled for any sort of consistency outside of Parker. The earlier speculation over Avram Grant’s future didn’t help matters, and the Israeli himself has stated that his team needs nine points to ensure survival, a daunting assignment when you consider that a visit to Manchester City is among their remaining four games.
Apart from that, they host Blackburn and Sunderland which, given their recent form (four straight defeats), makes picking up points a hard task. Their trip to Wigan has suddenly assumed season-saving status, the very definition of a relegation six pointer.
But their future is very much out of their hands, and West Ham quite simply may run out of what little fortune they have left. After narrowly missing the drop last season, relegation may now stand as an inevitability for the diehards at the Boleyn Ground.
It’s a shame for Scott Parker and West Ham but the league table ultimately tells no lies.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
