2011 NBA Free Agency: Yao Ming and the Biggest Risk/Reward Players on the Market
Sometimes, LeBron James wants to sign with your team.
That's not even really a decision.
When you have the opportunity to sign a franchise player or another reliable guy, it is not usually a difficult decision to make.
Unfortunately for GMs, it is not that easy most of the time.
What do you do when there is a player who has skills but has struggled with injury? A guy who has talent but has yet to display it? Is inconsistent?
These decisions can make or break a team. You could miss out on the savior of your franchise or overpay by millions on someone who is not helping your team much.
Here are the top ten biggest risk-reward players in the 2011 free agent class.
10. Jeff Green
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For awhile, Jeff Green looked like he was going to be the third all-star on the Oklahoma City Thunder.
He has now been relegated to a bench role on the Boston Celtics. It is an important role, but stardom is certainly not a sure thing for Green.
Green does not have a true position, being in between a three and a four. He is certainly a good player, but has not shown consistency. His upside could be higher than has been shown.
Green will be a restricted free agent. The Celtics will have the right to match any offer that is thrown his way.
Will the C's re-sign him to join Rondo as the core of the future Boston team? Will another team throw big money at him in hopes that he will be an all-star in the future?
9. Rodney Stuckey
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Rodney Stuckey can do one thing really well: score.
He is not a natural point guard, nor does he shoot a high percentage from three. He also does not have the size or defense to play shooting guard.
Nonetheless, he could give most teams a good scoring punch, off the bench or as a starter.
Stuckey has struggled with inconsistency and injury problems, but still has a lot of talent. Every team needs people who can put the ball in the basket.
Detroit will be able to keep him if they like because he is a restricted free agent. They may not want to spend a lot of money on him though because they have similar players already and may be looking at a different direction with new ownership.
The question is, do his scoring skills outweigh the accompanying risks and drawbacks?
8. Caron Butler
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As you will see, Butler has a similar story to another injured star, David West.
He has had a solid career and had found a niche as Dirk's wingman in Dallas this year before he suffered a tough injury that ended his season.
The Mavericks didn't trade his expiring contract as many though they would. That may be an indication that they want to re-sign him this year.
It is always a risk to sign someone who is recovering from an injury as they could have problems recovering. Butler may not be terribly expensive though, and it may be a risk well worth taking.
7. Brandan Wright
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Brandan Wright had a lot of hype coming in to the NBA Draft of 2007. His athleticism and size made for a good combination.
Since being picked eighth, Wright has been a big disappointment. He averaged eight points in his best season, and doesn't seem to have the drive to become a good NBA player.
Nevertheless, his height and athleticism remain. Given the right situation, Wright still has the chance to turn things around.
Will someone take a gamble on him?
Wright is another restricted free agent, the Nets will have to decide whether he fits in to their plans.
6. David West
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West has been Mr. Reliable for years playing alongside Chris Paul. You were going to get 17-22 points and 6-10 boards from him most nights.
What makes him risky now is his season ending knee injury. After putting in several good years, West will probably want a pay-raise.
The injury really complicated things for him, as there is always a chance that he will not fully recover from it.
Whoever gets West could have a solid second option, or a $10mil-a-year guy in a suit.
5. Deandre Jordan
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Jordan is a very talented big man, but still raw. He is known for being the second best dunker on the Clippers.
Becuase he is a restricted free agent, it will take a big offer to get him away from the Clippers.
Teams seriously risk over paying in this situation, because Jordan has only shown glimpses of his potential. But athletic big men are not easy to find and the high-flying Jordan is very talented.
4. Nick Young
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Nick Young had a serious break-out year this year. His scoring flew up as did his three-point shooting.
Few teams could not use Young's scoring and shooting prowess. There are a few question marks though.
He has had nagging knee injuries the whole year that have slowed him down, never a good thing. Also, he this is the first time he has really shown this level of play.
Though there are other reasons for it, sometimes you question it when someone has a good contract year as Young has. There is no way of knowing that he will keep it up.
Of course, if he is scoring twenty a game for the other team, you're going to regret passing him up.
Washington can match offers for him, but they have another bright young shooting guard, Jordan Crawford, so they may not be desperate to hold on to Young.
3. Yao Ming
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Yao was easily a top three center before he went down injured two years ago.
He has barely played since then, and it remains to see whether the rest of his career can be productive.
He will certainly take a pay cut if he doesn't retire, but he should still command several million a year. The Rockets may want to re-sign him for loyalty and his strong fan-base, or they may want to move on.
If Yao could just be an average center when he comes back, he will be worth the investment. But nobody wants to give a significant chunk of change to someone who will be injured the whole time.
2. J.R. Smith
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Smith is perhaps the most unpredictable player in the league.
Sometimes he looks like MJ, hitting long threes and getting past his for dunks. Sometimes he just disappears and doesn't do anything. Worse yet, he has struggled with maturity issues and sometimes loses his head and becomes a distraction.
He said recently that he doesn't expect to come back to Denver next year. It will be interesting to see what kind of market he has out there.
If he gets on a veteran team with a strong coach and good leadership, it may help him to shape things up. He could be a big piece for a contending team like Boston, San Antonio, or Chicago.
He could pay off big time for whoever takes a risk on him. But they risk him becoming a distraction as well.
1. Greg Oden
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Ah Greg Oden.
The big man from Ohio State has shown flashes of his potentially dominant play, but unfortunately has suffered from a string of knee injuries that have allowed him to play in only one quarter of the games since he was drafted.
He is still only twenty-three, and has a chance to become an big-time impact player.
The Blazers will have to make a big qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent. Another team could swoop in with a large offer to try to lure him away, but that would be a big time risk.
On one end of the spectrum, he could never become completely healthy, and sit on the side of the bench earning millions every year. Or he could recover and become a dominant center in the league.
That makes Oden the biggest risk/reward player on this year's free agent market.
