NFL Trade Predictions: 10 Trades That Could Happen in the 1st 3 Rounds
In the NFL draft, they’re the toughest to predict. They happen every year and they usually raise a curious eyebrow or two amongst fans.
And this year, players can’t even be involved.
Draft-day trades add an enormous wrinkle to an already unpredictable phenomenon, and the 2011 NFL draft will likely prove no different.
Though the ongoing lockout and absence of a collective bargaining agreement prevents teams from including players in trades, don’t think for a moment that teams won't answer when the war room phone rings.
And it will.
In the spirit of speculation, here are 10 draft-day trades that could happen in the first three rounds.
Carolina Panthers Trade out of No. 1 Spot
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Nobody trades out of the No. 1 spot.
Nobody.
And in 2010, the Carolina Panthers were as close to a nobody in the NFL as anyone could get.
Rookie head coach Ron Rivera has the task of resurrecting the Panthers from irrelevancy in the tough NFC South, and drafting a boom-or-bust prospect like Auburn’s Cam Newton could prove the first nail in his head-coaching coffin if he makes the pick and Newton flames out at the next level.
The Buffalo Bills seem to be the best fit for Newton, according to ESPN’s Mel Kiper, and if Bills general manager Buddy Nix believes the Panthers are seriously considering taking Newton by default as the top talent in the draft at No. 1, trading up from No. 3 to secure Newton’s services would certainly be an option.
Nix is reportedly high on the oft-scrutinized quarterback and the Bills have a serviceable option in Ryan Fitzpatrick to hold serve until Newton is NFL ready.
It would likely not take much to convince the Panthers to drop to No. 3 and look at taking a more surefire prospect, such as Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller.
Swapping first-rounders and the Bills throwing in their third-round pick (68th overall) or their fourth- and fifth-rounders (No. 122 and 123, respectively) could get the job done, taking the heat of Rivera and the Panthers and landing Newton in Buffalo.
New England Patriots Trade Up into the Top 10
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Their offense is prolific. Their run defense, admirable.
But against the pass, they’re dreadful.
The New England Patriots allowed 258.5 yards per game and 25 touchdowns through the air in 2010, good for 30th in the league.
Only the Washington Redskins and Houston Texans proved more inept.
While they defended the big play well, allowing just four plays of 40-plus yards through the air, tied for tops in the league, their 36 sacks were barely good enough to put them in the middle of the pack, somewhere they cannot find themselves if they want to compete for another Lombardi Trophy in the Tom Brady era.
The question is, who wants out of the top 10 more than anyone?
If the Tennessee Titans get a sweet enough deal from the Patriots, who have two first-round picks (Nos. 17 and 28 overall), look for Bill Belichick to vault up the the No. 8 slot to take a mobile defensive tackle. Someone who has some character issues that have other teams staying away from him despite his once being heralded as a potential No. 1 pick.
Someone like Auburn’s Nick Fairley.
Character concerns seem to vanish into the thin New England air under Belichick’s regime. Strictly from a talent perspective, Fairley provides a solid need-based selection for the Patriots.
The Patriots have six picks in the first three rounds and three among the first 33 picks. They could easily put a package together to move into the top 10 to nab Fairley.
Provided the Titans think it’s a sweet enough deal.
Washington Redskins Trade out of the Top 10
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It likely won’t take long for Dan Snyder to get bored in this year’s draft.
With Donovan McNabb all but out of our nation’s capital and Rex Grossman set to be a free agent, surely sitting at No. 10 and simply drafting the best player available will not suffice.
Snyder and the Bills’ Nix have something in common: They want Cam Newton.
But the Redskins likely don’t have the ammunition to leapfrog the Bills at No. 3, as they have only two picks in the first four rounds.
If a quarterback is what Snyder and Shanahan truly fancy, perhaps trading down to the late first round, possibly with the Patriots if Nick Fairley is still available (another diva defensive tackle is the last thing the Redskins need), getting additional draft picks and selecting TCU’s Andy Dalton or Florida State’s Christian Ponder is the right move.
While Ponder’s stock as been on the rise, Dalton’s has remained high after a successful college career as a four-year starter in which he was 42-7.
The knocks on him are that he did not play in a pro-style offense and he rarely took snaps from under center, but the Redskins are not a quarterback away from a Super Bowl, so the immediate concerns are few if they can snag Dalton in the late first round.
They could use the additional pick to bolster the league’s 31st-ranked defense that allowed almost 400 yards per game.
Of course, if Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert falls to No. 10 the Redskins would surely take him.
But if Gabbert is off the board, don’t be shocked if the Redskins look to add a second-rounder to their draft arsenal in exchange for trading down for Dalton.
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Miami Dolphins Trade Down, Still Get Their Guy
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The Miami Dolphins have been rumored to have their eye on former Heisman Trophy-winner Mark Ingram out of Alabama, but it would be considered a reach to take the running back at No. 15.
There’s one simple solution: trade down.
And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be searching for a trade partner.
At No. 20, the Buccaneers are likely to take a defensive end with their first-round pick, and at No. 15, a deep draft will likely still be rife with solid defensive end talent.
Surely the Dolphins don’t want to risk trading down to No. 20, allowing the division-rival Patriots a shot at drafting Ingram at No. 17. But if the Patriots jump into the top 10 to grab Nick Fairley, that No. 17 pick will likely be the bait used to do so, leaving only the New York Giants at No. 19 to worry about stealing their coveted pick.
The Dolphins have eight draft picks, but after their first-round selection, they don’t pick again until the third round (79th overall). Three of their picks come in the seventh round, including the compensatory 235th overall pick.
If they want any chance at snagging Ingram along with a quarterback in the 2011 draft, the only way to do so is to trade down a few spots and try to secure a pick closer to the second round, where guys like Christian Ponder and Ryan Mallett could be hanging out on Day 2.
The Buccaneers would gladly part with one of their late-round picks to jump five spots to secure a talent like Purdue defensive end Ryan Kerrigan at No. 15, which would still leave them with second- and third-round picks (51st and 84th overall) to address the cornerback and offensive line positions.
You’ll likely see Ingram in South beach—just not at No. 15.
St. Louis Rams and Dallas Cowboys Swap First-Rounders
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The St. Louis Rams gambled with the No.1 overall pick in the 2010 draft by selecting Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford despite injury concerns regarding his throwing shoulder.
It sure looked fine in his rookie year, in which he earned Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Now, they need to go get him a wide receiver for him to throw to. The only problem is, if the Redskins decide to stay put at No. 10, they’ll likely opt for a receiver.
Georgia’s A.J. Green will be long gone, but Alabama’s Julio Jones could still be on the board when the Dallas Cowboys pick at No. 9.
The Rams are in the enviable position of having a young star quarterback in the making in the easiest division in the NFL, the NFC West. The only problem is, they don’t have many picks to work with, so trading up will be difficult.
However, to snag a talent like Jones, who reeled in 78 balls for 1,133 yards and seven touchdowns in a down year in 2010, they’ll need to move up form their No. 14 slot.
It would likely take the Rams’ third-round pick (78th overall) to make the swap happen. The Cowboys currently have eight picks in the draft, but just three within the first three rounds. They would gladly swap with the Rams and see who falls to them at No.14 and have another value pick in the third round to address one of their many needs.
The Rams, meanwhile, will have the receiver their young star needs for continued growth and a second-round pick (47th overall) to address the defense or the offensive line.
If the Rams come calling on draft day, expect Jerry Jones to answer, take the deal and never look back.
San Francisco 49ers Trade Up in Round 2 for a QB
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Christian Ponder’s draft stock and gone through the roof in recent weeks, and a number of teams could have their sights set on him in the second round.
He who misses out on first-round quarterback shall select Ponder in Round 2.
New head coach Jim Harbaugh has pledged his interim loyalty to Alex Smith in San Francisco, but that doesn’t mean he won’t pick a quarterback to put some heat on the former No. 1 overall pick.
The San Francisco 49ers have the 13th pick in the second round (45th overall) and a whopping 12 picks in the draft, though six come in the final two rounds.
But they make for good bargaining chips.
Should Ponder last the first round, which he likely will, given the quarterbacking talent ahead of him, look for the 49ers to target a team like Buffalo at No. 35.
The Cincinnati Bengals hold the 36th overall pick, and they are likely in the market for a quarterback given the Carson Palmer offseason trade demands. If the Harbaugh camp feels the Bengals are ready to pounce on Ponder, they could swoop in and scoop the quarterback right out from under their noses.
The Bills will be in the market for an additional draft pick, as they will have likely jumped to No. 1 overall to grab Cam Newton, solidifying their quarterbacking needs for the draft.
Another player in the mix here could be Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick.
With teams like Cincinnati, Tennessee, Washington and Minnesota all picking from Nos. 35 to 43, the 49ers could reach ahead of one or all of them to get their guy.
And that’s what teams with 12 draft picks can do: trade up to reach for a guy they might not need right away.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Move Up in Round 2 for Aqib Talib's Replacement
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers reportedly plan to cut ties with troubled but talented cornerback Aqib Talib after his latest run-in with the law that will surely merit a suspension upon a labor agreement.
This is a blow to a young, up-and-coming team that surprised the NFL with its 10-6 record last season, in which they were a tiebreaker away from making the playoffs after a 3-13 2009 campaign.
But it’s nothing general manager Mark Dominik and head coach Raheem Morris can’t handle.
After likely taking a defensive end in the first round, the Buccaneers have the 19th pick in the second round (51st overall).
And they’ll need a cornerback.
While LSU’s Patrick Peterson and Nebraska’s Prince Amukamara likely won’t make it out of the top 10, there’s a first-round talent that could slip to the second round in a draft that’s top heavy with defensive line talent.
But he won’t last until the 51st pick.
The Buccaneers have eight picks in the 2011 draft, and look for them to part ways with either a sixth- or seventh-rounder to swap picks with either Arizona at No. 38 or Tennessee at No. 39 to beat the Dallas Cowboys to the punch and select Colorado cornerback Jimmy Smith.
Sure, they could wait it out and grab Texas’ Curtis Brown of Virginia’s Ras-I Dowling, but Smith mirrors Talib both physically with his 6’2’’, 211-pound frame and athletically as well, able to press receivers at the line and leap with the best of them. He also runs a sub-4.4 40-yard dash.
However, he also mirrors Talib in the baggage department, as he had some minor brushes with the law in college as well.
Look for the Buccaneers to look past these issues if they can send a late-round pick to draft Smith. Otherwise, Dowling may fall to a team in desperate need of a cornerback.
San Diego Chargers Jump Up in Third Round to Draft Target(s) for Philip Rivers
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Vincent Jackson wants more money. Malcom Floyd could be gone via free agency.
That would leave Philip Rivers with Patrick Crayton and Legedu Naanee battling for the No. 1 receiver spot in San Diego.
Yikes.
The third round on the 2011 draft could see a couple of early second-round talents fall into the laps of a Chargers team facing one of the toughest schedules in the league in 2011.
Rivers threw for 4,710 yards and tossed 30 touchdowns to a bevy of nobodies as a part of the league’s top offensive unit and second-ranked passing attack.
With the Chargers likely to address the defensive side of the ball with their first and second picks to ensure the league’s top defensive unit stays strong in a loaded AFC, wide receiver will likely be on their minds in Round 3.
Enter Boise State’s Titus Young and Kentucky’s Randall Cobb.
Cobb is easily a second-round talent while Young would be much higher on teams’ draft boards if it weren’t for a glaring character concerns, Young would likely be much higher.
Either way, the Chargers will be in position to take one of these with the No. 29 pick (61st overall) in the second round, their second pick in that round and package one of their two sixth-round picks and their 18th pick in the third round (82nd overall) to reach in front of the Cleveland Browns and St. Louis Rams in Round 3 to snag the other.
Cobb will likely be the first of the two off the board, so if the Chargers could grab him at the end of the second round and trade into the top five in the third round with one more third-rounder in the bank at 89th overall, chalk it up as a win for Norv Turner and company.
One is good, two is better. Two early second-round talents near the turn of the third round is practically gold when you already have Rivers and the league’s top offense.
Look for the Chargers to target Denver with the third pick in the third round (67th overall) for a potential swap.
Philadelphia Eagels Trade Down for Value Picks to Address Defense
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Philly loves dealing on draft day.
They had a dynamic offense with DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and, of course, Michael Vick in 2011.
Their defense, however, was dangerously average.
The Philadelphia Eagles allowed 20 or more points in 10 games in 2010 and allowed 30 or more five times.
Good thing their offense was third in the league, averaging 27.4 points per game.
But if that dynamic offense is going to carry them to a Super Bowl, the defense must get better.
The Eagles are notorious for moving down in the draft to get value picks and letting the draft come to them rather than jumping ahead to get players.
In a deep defensive draft, getting rid of their 23rd overall pick to move either later in the first round or into the second round would likely net them a third-round pick, giving them six picks in the first four rounds and 11 overall.
With players such as UCLA outside linebacker Akeem Ayers, Iowa defensive end Adrian Calyborn and Ohio State defensive lineman Cameron Heyward all slated to be on the cusp of the first round, dropping back and focusing on bolstering the defense from the inside out would do wonders for Philly’s chances at making a deep playoff run in 2011.
Sneak in an offensive lineman and a solid secondary player with some upside later in the draft and the fans in Philly will have something to buzz about come 2012 playoff time.
Look for the Eagles to dial up the Cincinnati Bengals (35th overall), Denver Broncos (36th overall) and Tennessee Titans (39th overall) if one of those teams feels like reaching for a quarterback like Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick at No. 23.
Love Affair Coaxes Houston Texans to Trade Up into the Top 5
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We cannot go much further without discussing perhaps the most dynamic defensive player in the draft, LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson.
Someone will likely move up to get him in the top five.
That someone will likely be the Houston Texans.
Their passing defense in 2010 was horrendous: dead last in the league allowing nearly 270 yards per game. They allowed the sixth-most plays of 20-plus yards with 56 and the most for 40-plus yards with 18.
They need to make a splash on defense. Simple patchwork just won’t get it done.
Said to be enamored with Peterson’s athletic ability, the Texans could be willing to sacrifice one of their seven other draft picks to move from No. 11 overall to as high as No. 2 to get Peterson.
The Denver Broncos could be willing to swap if they believe the impact defensive player they seek will be there at No. 11.
The Panthers (No. 1) and 49ers (No. 7) are the only other two teams likely to trade out of their spots, so if Peterson is available, look for the Texans to make a few phone calls on draft day in an effort to land the love of their draft life.
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