2011 NFL Mock Draft: How Many Quarterbacks Go in Round One?
I recently saw a mock draft with six quarterbacks being drafted in round one. What was even more surprising than the sheer number was that Jake locker wasn't one of them.
We may see that many QBs drafted in round one. Doubtful, but one thing is for certain. Locker will be among the group if there are more than four, which is my best guess on the total. The group will include Cam Newton, Locker, Blaine Gabbert and either Ryan Mallett or Christian Ponder...in that order.
This begs the question though...how many QBs will be drafted in the first round and who are the potential suitors?
7. Andy Dalton, QB TCU: Doubtful
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There would need to be a slew of trading for Dalton to get drafted in round one. I've seen him mocked to Seattle and called the most pro-ready QB in the draft, but I'm not buying it.
Aside from feeling like Seattle is preparing other areas of their team so they can get a QB in 2012, Dalton will have a big transition to the style of play in the NFL. The Seahawks would likely be better off with Charlie Whitehurst starting in 2011 and playing a rookie from the '12 draft next season.
There is a scenario where Dalton could be drafted on day one. That can be found at the bottom of the final page.
6. Colin Kaepernick, QB Nevada: Not Likely
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While Dalton could go in the second or possibly even the third round, Kaepernick is likely to go early in the second.
There are a few teams in the latter part of the first round that will be looking to move down, but I don't expect any bargains from the draft value chart. More than likely, teams needing a QB will look to jump to the top of the second round.
If the Cincinnati Bengals ignore the QB position in Round One, Kaepernick would be an ideal target for them.
Kaepernick would also be a good fit for the Titans, as he has solid speed and a strong arm. There is a concern that he will need some time to convert from the pistol offense to a pro set, but Kaepernick has the aptitude to learn a new system quickly.
He also has a strong work ethic, which will facilitate his transition.
Kaepernick looks like he could be a good NFL QB, but there is no reason to assume he'll be great. He also doesn't figure to be ready to start except under extreme circumstances in 2011.
Spending too much to trade back into the first round doesn't seem like a wise investment for Kaepernick. However, look for him to be drafted in the first 10 picks of Round Two.
5. Christian Ponder, QB Florida State: 50/50
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Ponder is an intriguing prospect. He has had injury issues, which will turn several QB-needy teams away—particularly in the first round. Shoulders don't always heel as expected.
Ponder has an accurate arm, and moves well with the ball. He should transition into a west coast offense very smoothly, creating buzz that the Seattle Seahawks will target him in Round One. With the other needs on the Seattle roster, and their GM stating he is interested in moving down to obtain extra picks, Ponder doesn't seem destined for Seattle.
There is also speculation that the San Francisco 49ers could use some of their extra draft capital this year to move up from their second-round pick and take Ponder late in the first round. This actually makes a lot of sense, as he seems to be a QB that would work well under Jim Harbaugh.
One of Ponder's strengths is his ability to extend plays with his legs. He has great acceleration moving away from the pass rush. This is likely helped by a quick drop; he can get settled into the pocket quickly, allowing him to get his eyes downfield quicker than most.
Unlike Locker, when Ponder tucks and scrambles, he has shown the ability to keep his eyes downfield and get a pass off. Locker often decides to simply run with the ball instead of scrambling, possibly show a lack of faith in his receivers.
Also unlike Locker, Ponder lacks zip in intermediate range passes and doesn't have a strong arm on deep passes. This hurts his accuracy on deep balls, as he has to force or “hurl” the pass instead of throwing it.
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4. Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas: Likely
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Mallett's stock has changed more than Jake Locker's over the last year. There have been rumors of character issues and lapses in judgement.
Much of the character issues have been sensationalized and won't likely hurt his draft stock as much as some people have claimed. He still has the best arm in the draft, and can kill a defense in a solid pocket.
The thing that might keep Mallett out of Round One is his athleticism—or lack thereof. He is painfully slow and will struggle matching strides with defensive lineman to avoid pressure. He will likely need a solid OL to make a stand in the NFL.
Mallett has done very well reading defenses at times, but at others he'll miss pre-snap shifts. This can lead to sacks, particularly since he can't get out of harm's way very well.
Speculating Mallett's draft spot is tricky. However, I do feel some team will be willing to take a chance on him the end of Round One, even if it means giving up another pick to move up to snag him.
Mallett could be headed to Miami, Jacksonville, Indianapolis or Chicago. The latter three of these cities would give him time to adjust to the NFL before being thrust into a starting role—so long as the starting QBs stay healthy.
3. Jake Locker, QB Washington: Almost Certain
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Jake Locker simply has too much talent to survive the first round of the NFL draft. Some team will take the gamble that his accuracy issues had more to do with a bad offensive line and dropped passes than his passes being consistently errant.
Locker's biggest issue with Locker is around his willingness to abandon the pass and tuck the ball and run. That will be a tough do in the NFL and not highly rewarded. He'll need to work on his decision-making and gain enough comfort in the pocket to move up and follow progressions.
If Locker can fix that part of his game, expect to see his play much improved in the NFL. Locker's receivers dropped way too many balls in 2011, and he also had to throw a large number of passes away.
In the Stanford game, for example, I was clocking how long he had to release the ball on several plays. It was right at 2.0 seconds. The problem is, that was on the replay—in slow motion. The Cardinals were hitting him before he could get his third step set.
Locker is very good at throwing the ball away and avoiding the sack, but this slowly ate away at his stat line. Then there was the first game vs. Nebraska, where he tried to force throws. A 4-for-20 performance makes it hard to rally a stat line.
If Locker is there towards the end of Round Two, there are four different teams that might consider drafting him. The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots both need a transition plan at the QB position. The Chicago Bears are in a similar position, but they need someone to challenge for the starting spot.
Then there are the Seattle Seahawks, who would then need to find a way to re-sign Matt Hasselbeck to help groom Locker. If none of these teams bite, the Packers are in a good position to trade down with a team looking to leap-frog other QB-needy teams.
Look for Locker to be gone by pick 12—most likely eighth to the Titans as the second QB drafted. Then the question is whom will the Titans sign to be his mentor? Could Hasselbeck and Locker team up in Tennessee?
2. Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri: Top 10 Pick
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I've been on the record, early and often, that Blaine Gabbert is not a top 10 pick. He simply hasn't had the production on the field to warrant the kind of hype he is receiving. In part, he is a product of coming out in a draft class with a lot of questions at the QB position.
The other part of his hype is that he doesn't have any major flaws. That isn't to say he has any strong traits though.
Gabbert hit a lot of short passes out of his spread offense. His TD production was anemic, and his yards per completion were well below the top QBs in this draft. Even his yards per attempt were lagging behind other passers, including Jake Locker. He will be a top 10 pick, but he has a lot to change if he'll be able to live up to the draft position.
1. Cam Newton: Top 5 Pick
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About 90 percent of the mock drafts show Newton being taken at the top spot in the draft. This is very likely to happen, but I don't believe it will be the Panthers taking him. They stand to pick up some needed draft picks by moving down a few spots for a tea eager to take Newton. He could be targeted by the Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans.
At the end of Thursday, I expect to see four QBs rocking NFL uniforms. However, the potential for a feeding frenzy does exist. The Titans and Redskins might choose to take a QB early, forcing other teams to trade back into the first round to grab a signal caller.
Under this scenario, it is possible to see six or all seven of these quarterbacks negotiating a first—round contract—hopefully soon.
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