UFC 129 Fight Card: 5 Things to Watch for in the Couture-Machida Fight

When the UFC first announced Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida for UFC 129 at the Rogers Centre, fan reaction was tepid. With neither man sitting in the division’s top five and both seemingly far from a title shot (though I have argued differently), this fight was seen as a fun fight, an interesting clash of styles, but little more.

Well, you can kiss those days goodbye.

When Randy Couture announced that this fight would be “The Natural’s” last, all the rules changed. This isn’t just another clash of LHW contenders and former champions fighting to get back in title contention. This is Randy Couture’s retirement match!

And it may also prove to be the toughest challenge in “Captain America’s” career.

True, Lyoto Machida’s stock has fallen quite a bit since the halcyon days of the “Machida Era” way back in that ancient time known as 2009. Back-to-back losses—one controversial, the other devastating—have dulled the luster of the man once viewed as the future of 205 lbs.

Now, Machida is fighting not just to stay relevant, but to stay employed. Dana White has hinted darkly at what might happen should “The Dragon” drop three straight.

It’s ironic that Machida is fighting to keep his career against a man about to end his. For Randy, the stakes in this fight are almost nil—but there is still something in it for “The Natural.” Randy has been insistent on going out on his own terms. I’m sure those terms don’t include ending his career in a KO the way he “ended” it in 2006 following the Liddell loss.

For Randy, it’s all about going out on a high note and leaving fans with an indelible impression they’ll never forget.

For Lyoto, time to take a page from the Vince Lombardi school of wisdom, because on April 30th, winning is certainly the only thing.

This fight is as intriguing a style clash as any LHW match you could make right now, with both guys bringing diverse and different weapons to a very old school, “style vs. style” fight. Here are the five biggest things to watch for when Randy Couture and Lyoto Machida throw down on the 30th.

Lyoto Machida Dominating the Clinch

Ok not really a clinch, but Lyoto shut Tito Ortiz down in their fight no problem.

No, that’s not a typo in the title. There’s nothing wrong with your browser. And yes, I’m perfectly aware which fighter is the world class Greco-Roman wrestler and acclaimed clinch master and which is Lyoto Machida.

But hear me out here. Lyoto Machida has a Judo-inspired clinch game that is, in my opinion, the most underrated in all of LHW. We constantly hear praise of his striking, his footwork, his “elusiveness” or submission game. Yet I feel his clinch game, both offensively and defensively, is as elite as anyone in MMA.

Don’t believe me? Here’s Lyoto throwing acclaimed MMA wrestler Tito Ortiz like he was a sack of potatoes with bleach blonde hair and a huge head.

Here he is clinch tripping Maurico “Shogun” Rua with such authority that “Shogun’s” knee needed surgery.

Here’s Machida showing US Open Judo Champion Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou the finer points of tripping someone, “Dragon” style.

And here he makes it look easy, planting Quinton “Rampage” Jackson with a clinch takedown after basically whooping his a**.

Sure, Machida didn’t win some of the fights in which he got those takedowns. As a fighter, we already know he’s not the invincible karate master he was first thought to be.

Still, that’s a damn impressive list of fighters on anyone’s resume—and Machida dominated them all in the clinch by a country mile. If Randy and Machida clinch in this fight, I don’t see Randy getting any takedowns and landing only a handful of strikes.

In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and say that if anyone’s taking anyone down in the clinch this fight, it’ll be Lyoto taking down Couture.

Randy Couture Getting Him Down Anyways

Here's Randy scooping up Brock freakin' Lesnar. Yeah, I think he's a good wrestler.

Sure, Lyoto might dominate the clinch and shut down Randy’s usual avenue of attack. I just don’t see that intimidating “The Natural” at all.

Other fighters might break mentally when their go-to move, their tried and true gameplan, is shut down right at square one. But Randy Couture is not other fighters. And I don’t think he knows how to break mentally.

Surely competing at the highest levels of Mixed Martial Arts at the age of 48 is nothing if not a testament to the man’s stubbornness. That he’s still winning, still intimating, still viewed as a threat—that’s a testament to what a bad mofo Randy Couture really is.

So Randy can’t get any takedowns going from the clinch? Oh well. He’ll wait for “The Dragon” to plant his feet and then he’ll dive for his waist, dive for his knees, dive for an ankle, anything. Randy is an old hand at wrestling and he’s got a full bag of tricks he can use to bring this fight to the mat. 

From listening to his pre-fight interviews, Randy is entertaining no illusions. He’s not going to try to stand and bang with Machida and forsake his wrestling like Rashad Evans. From the moment the bell rings, Randy’s going to be coming forward, looking for a takedown. If one thing doesn’t work, he’ll try something else.

Like the mothaf*ckin’ Borg, Randy will adapt.

At some point in this fight, Lyoto’s going to have to prove his takedown defence or guard game is elite level. When you fight Randy Couture, expect nothing else.

Is Lyoto Machida Still the Unstoppable "Dragon"?

Ouch.

Lyoto Machida used to have “it.” That intangible x-factor. That unbeatable aura. That legendary, once in a lifetime kind of specialness.

In other words, not all that long ago, Lyoto Machida was the freakin’ man. But that was before a controversial decision win was followed by back-to-back losses forever shattered Lyoto’s aura of invincibility.

Once the unsolvable riddle of the LHW division, Machida tumbled in the space of a year from champion, to contender, to fighting for his place on the roster.

When Machida was on his tear, he was as unflappable mentally as any fighter in the game. People don’t remember Machida’s early days in the UFC—because they probably fell asleep during his fights.

Yes, his pre-Thiago Silva UFC fights were somewhat slower paced, but from a technical standpoint they were flawless. Lyoto never got lured from his gameplan, never faltered in the face of adversity and stayed strong and thinking from bell to bell.

And post-Silva, well, we all know what happened. Machida became the most feared man in the sport. You could see it in people’s eyes when they faced him. Rashad Evans looked downright broken before even a punch was thrown when he defended his title against Machida—and paid the price for it. Machida had that unbeatable aura, that unstoppable reputation.

He had “it."

He certainly no longer has “it” no matter what the UFC marketing tells you. Machida has been figured out, for now. But that doesn’t mean he can’t get “it” back. Team mate Anderson Silva lost “it” when he got drubbed by Chael Sonnen for nearly five rounds. He got “it” back when he knocked Vitor Belfort out with the calluses on his foot.

Machida needs to get “it” back in this fight and prove he’s still “The Dragon,” at least mentally.

Is Couture’s Legendary Gas Tank Still Holding Up at 48 Years Old?

One of Randy’s biggest assets in a fight has always been his inexhaustible gas tank. Over and over again in his career, Randy has dragged men into deep waters and held them there until they drown from exhaustion.

It’s also nothing short of an athletic miracle that he’s able to do most of those marathon, cardio-grinding sessions well into his middle age. And yet time after time, kindly old Uncle Randy is still chugging along full steam in round five while his 20 or 30 something opponent is heaving for oxygen and turning purple.

But now, one gets the feeling even Randy is asking a little much of Mother Nature and Father Time. Randy will be 48 years old when the lights go down on April 30th, an age where most men find mowing the lawn to be a physically demanding hassle.

Are there exceptions to the rule? Of course there are.

Are there exceptions to the rule that still compete at the highest levels of Mixed Martial Arts, however? The answer is no. That’s what makes Randy Randy. That’s what makes the Captain America legend what it is. That what makes Randy an inspiration to just about everyone in MMA, from fans to fighters, critics to commentators, and everyone in between.

But still, that number haunts Couture. 48 years old. 48 years. 48. Those are long odds indeed on still being able to go three hard fought rounds with an elite fighter in his athletic prime.

Machida may oblige Couture by sitting back in this fight and letting him dictate the pace. In my opinion, that would be a mistake. If Machida puts the pressure on Couture from the opening bell, “The Natural” may find that his gas tank hasn’t survived the tumble of years quite as gracefully as he himself seems to have.

A Decision

If this guy shows up we're in alot of trouble.

Yes folks, since I need to get on record with a prediction, I’m calling it now.

Randy isn’t dumb enough to get in a kickboxing match with Lyoto. Lyoto isn’t dumb enough to get in a wrestling match with Couture. On the ground, each man’s BJJ Black Belt pretty much cancels the other one’s out.

So the way I see it, this fight is pretty much a stalemate. In the end, it’ll come down to who gets in more offence over the three rounds, because I don’t see either guy putting themselves in a position to be finished. What’s more, both these guys are legendary survivors, submitted by no one and KO’d by only the hardest of hitters.

Expect this fight to go to a decision.