College Football 2011-2012: Post Spring Game BCS Bowl Predictions
Spring ball is finished (for most teams), and it's time to look towards next fall.
Now that we have a slightly clearer picture of what each team will look like come fall, it's time for the bold predictions to begin—it's BCS Bowl prediction time!
Based on each team's returning starters, their 2011 outlook, and their spring practices—good and bad—here are our picks for next season's BCS bowls.
Orange Bowl: Florida State Vs. West Virginia
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The Orange Bowl traditionally places the Big East champions against the champion of the ACC.
ACC representative: Florida State Seminoles
Florida State clearly has their starter in place. EJ Manuel is clearly the most talented quarterback by leaps and bounds in Tallahassee. While he needs a little time to step into the starting role at FSU, showing a lack of cohesion with some of the receivers during the spring game. It should be noted, however, the Manuel was without some of FSU's top receivers, as they were playing on the opposing team during the spring game.
There were a lot of misreads and Manuel had the tendency to sail the ball over receivers' heads. The good news is that although there were a lot of incomplete passes, most of them were due to that lack of chemistry with the reciving corps, not a lack of talent or ability.
FSU doesn't have any glaring shortcomings for 2011, and they have all summer to pollish some of the rough spots we saw on offense.
Big East representative: West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia doesn't actually play their spring game until April 29, so we're working on pre-spring game practices thus far.
New offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen has made some pretty interesting changes with the Mountaineer offense. He moved a 250-pound tight end to slot receiver. He has instituted a new diamond, three-back formation, and a new offensive playbook.
The defense also has looked solid thus far, and there have been a few standouts, most notably Bruce Irwin and Mike Dorsey.
The spring game on Friday will surely tell us a lot more about this new-look Mountaineer squad, but it's clear from the onset that West Virginia will be a difficult team to beat in the Big East this year.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma St. Vs. Boise St.
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The Fiesta Bowl typically pits the Big 12 champion against an at-large BCS participant. Since this year we're picking a Big 12 team to participate in the BCS Championship, the Fiesta Bowl will have two at-large selections.
First at-large selection: Oklahoma State
The Cowboys' high-flying offense from 2010 returns almost completely intact. Perhaps the biggest change will be the new offensive coordinator, Todd Monkin.
Monkin, however, along with head coach Mike “I'm a Man” Gundy won't be changing much about the offense.
Why would they?
The other question asked about Oklahoma State was about backups, specifically, who would back up Brandon Weeden, who incidentally was 20-of-37 for 240 yards in the spring game.
Question asked, question answered.
Clint Chief all but locked up the second spot on the QB depth chart with an impressive 20-of-31, plus a couple of touchdowns.
Opposing defenses will also have more to worry about in 2011, if that seems possible, as we saw the continued growth of the receiving corps.
Justin Blackmon had eight receptions for 87 yards, but what was really important was that other receivers have come into their own, meaning opposing secondaries will no longer be able to double-up on Blackmon without risking a touchdown from the opposite side of the field.
All of this means that OSU will be expected to be one of the nation's top offenses again in 2011, and may even be a bit better than 2010.
Second at-large selection: Boise State
The Broncos are on track to return to the BCS after the 2011 regular season with senior QB and Heisman hopeful Kellen Moore leading the charge.
Surprisingly, it was the defense that came out on top in the spring game.
The Boise State defense held the offense in check most of the game, surrendering just two field goals until the final play of the game.
Moore wasn't overly spectacular, but didn't have to be. He's the undisputed leader of the prolific Boise State offense, and he only played sparingly.
A new highlight for the Bronco offense, and possibly a new prime target for Moore is sophomore receiver Geraldo Hiwat. He caught nearly everything thrown in his direction, and finished the day with 97 yards. Hiwat definitely has big play potential.
The defense was solid throughout the game, and looks to be a bright spot for Boise State come the fall.
The most impressive stat of the day, however, belongs to Trevor Harman, who bombed an 80-yard punt.
Sugar Bowl: LSU Vs. Wisconsin
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The top SEC team typically competes in this BCS bowl, taking on an at-large BCS selection.
SEC selection: Louisiana State
Last year's Cotton Bowl champion hopes to take the next step in 2011 and return to the BCS. After the Tigers' annual spring game, things seem to be on the right track in Baton Rouge.
The most impressive part of the April 9 game was Spencer Ware's pair of rushing touchdowns, giving his White Team a 22-7 victory.
The Purple Team's only score came on a 60-yard touchdown pass from sophomore Zach Mettenberger.
Ware had 94 yards on 13 carries.
Jordan Jefferson, LSU senior starting quarterback, had 133 total yards, 102 of which were through the air.
Jefferson was also given LSU's top award for spring practice, the Jimmy Taylor Award, for his leadership, effort, and performance.
This bodes well for LSU fans. The Tigers aren't wholly dependent on Jefferson, but success in the SEC and return to the BCS will depend on his solid play throughout 2011.
At-Large selection: Wisconsin
The Badgers limped home from Pasadena in January after a defeat at the hands of TCU.
Wisconsin held their annual spring game last Saturday (April 23), and from what we saw, the Badgers are hopeful about their chances in the new look Big Ten.
It probably won’t be a resounding shock to discover that Wisconsin hopes to ride a strong, powerful offense to success in 2011.
Wisconsin’s starting fullback, Bradie Ewing did not play in the spring game as a precaution (stinger). His replacement, walk-on Josh Hengel, was impressive, and shows that Wisconsin will have some amazing depth on offense, as other underclassmen impressed coaches and spectators alike.
But what is of concern for the Badgers is that during the spring game, the first and second team offenses were unable to find the end zone. James White still averaged almost six yards per carry, but the offensive units could not finish drives.
Granted, it’s just the spring game. But the lack of scoreboard production is a point of concern, and could cost the Badgers dearly come September.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Rose Bowl: Michigan State Vs. Oregon
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The Granddaddy of Them All, The Rose Bowl is the traditional game between the Big 10 champions and the champions of the Pac-10 (now the Pac-12).
Big Ten selection: Michigan State
Michigan State had easily their best season of football in 2010 since 1999, and claimed a share of the Big Ten title—their first since 1990.
Michigan State doesn't hold their spring game until April 30, but based on early spring practices, Sparty looks to pick up right where he left off in 2010.
Kirk Cousins will return for his senior season under center for MSU. Cousins is one of the nation's most underrated quarterbacks. He's accurate, agile, and doesn't panic in a crunch.
He's not as fast as Michigan's Denard Robinson (who is?), and he's not as flashy as Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor, but he's solid in every aspect of the game.
MSU also returns Edwin Baker. Baker was one of the more impressive backs in the Big Ten in 2010.
Both Cousins and Baker have reportedly had solid springs thus far, and Spartan faithful are eagerly awaiting their spring game performances.
Pac-12 selection: Oregon
Oregon also has their spring game set for April 30, but it's clear that the Ducks are an early favorite in the Pac-12.
Oregon's biggest competition in the Pac-10 last year came from Stanford. That game ended with a 52-31 drubbing of the Cardinal.
With so many weapons returning for 2011, it's hard to imagine anyone in the Pac-12 being able to match the Ducks' offensive output.
LaMichael James led the nation in rushing yards last year, and is on track to again be a Heisman finalist.
Spring games can sometimes be misleading, but don't be surprised if the offense puts up some eye-popping numbers come next Saturday.
The big question on every Ducks fans mind is how will the offensive line perform in 2011.
Oregon's entire offense was built for speed. In the past, that means they've had some trouble against bigger front sevens from the SEC and Big Ten.
But 2011's question stem more from a lack of depth rather than a lack of size.
There will be some big bodies on Oregon's o-line this fall, but there isn't a whole lot of experience to back them up.
But if Oregon can stay healthy up front, their offense could be improved over last season (hard as that is to believe).
BCS Championship Game: Oklahoma Vs. Alabama
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The BCS Championship Game—every team’s goal. Regardless of what one may think of the system, it's what we have for the time being, and it has featured the top two teams in the “poll of polls” for the season's fabled (and some say fictitious) national championship.
Final BCS Poll No. 1: Oklahoma
Landry Jones is unquestionably the Sooners go-to quarterback. He wasn't asked to prove himself, and he didn't take the opportunity to expend a great deal of effort attempting to wow anyone. After all, he didn't need to.
Jones will be an early Heisman candidate, but we didn't see much from him in the spring game (6-of-11 for 40 yards and an interception).
Drew Allen locked up the backup quarterback role after completing 16-of-29 for 179 yards.
The big Oklahoma offensive line was impressive, to say the least.
The quarterbacks were all given time to throw the ball, and the running game averaged over four yards per carry. The offensive line will be crucial to the Sooners success (or failures) in 2011.
There were many who wondered about Oklahoma's secondary. Wonder no more.
Sophomore safety Aaron Colvin seemed right at home in the secondary. His quickness and field vision and awareness will be important for OU come fall. Gabe Lynn and Tony Jefferson also showed off their potential as future stars for the Oklahoma defense.
As a unit, the secondary had three interceptions and six pass deflections.
Bob Stoops has his pieces in place for a run at the BCS title in 2011. If everything goes as planned, expect big things from OU.
Final BCS Poll No. 2: Alabama
While many fans get excited about spring football, that excitement takes on new meaning in Tuscaloosa. An amazing 92,310 fans showed up to Alabama's spring football game on April 16, breaking the previous record of 92,138.
On the field, the Crimson Tide had strong defensive play with CJ Mosley leading the charge. Mosley had seven solo tackles (9 overall), a pass deflection, and a QB hurry. Three other linebackers each tallied six tackles, and DeQuan Menzie hauled in an interception. It looks like linebackers won't be a weak spot for the Tide next fall.
Mark Barron probably had the best defensive numbers of the game. He recovered two fumbles with 100 fumble return yards (including a 96-yard return for a touchdown).
Alabama's spring games are notorious for not tipping to much of the Tide's hand. The black “no contact” jerseys were everywhere on the field, including on the defensive secondary.
Even so, it's clear that Alabama's epic collapse in the 2010 Iron Bowl is fresh on the mind of the Tide defense.
While the offense may not be as flashy as Oklahoma State or Oregon, don't count on the defense costing Alabama any wins in 2011.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
