Kyle Korver: Is It Time Tom Thibodeau Put Him in Chicago Bulls' Starting Lineup?
On the one hand, the Chicago Bulls have a commanding 3-1 lead in their series with the Indiana Pacers.
On the other hand, while it's highly unlikely that the Pacers can come back and win the series in spite of their Game 4 win over the Bulls and contesting each of the four games in the series, they've still presented a problem.
Let's clarify one thing about why the Pacers have been playing closer than expected, though. They are just fine on defense. In fact, their defensive rating of 100.56 trails only the Miami Heat among all playoff teams. Their problem is on offense.
While some might point to Derrick Rose and place the blame on his lower field goal percentage, there are a couple of things to bear in mind. He's getting fouled every time he drives into the lane. That means all his baskets close to the rim, which would normally be driving up his field goal percentage, aren't happening.
Now granted, his three-point shot has not been falling either. However, all in all he's scoring 1.28 points per shot attempt, which is actually fairly efficient scoring considering the defensive attention he's drawing.
This does bring up the real problem, though.
The main reason the Bulls are struggling on offense is that the Pacers are putting two players on Rose, including a shooting guard, and when he tries to find the outlet pass to what should be a mismatch or open shooter, he's either not there or not taking the shots.
When the Pacers are double-teaming Rose, that's leaving Darren Collison to defend the shooting guard position. The Bulls need to take advantage of the mismatch created there to make the Pacers pay for cheating up on Rose.
Keith Bogans has attempted exactly 13 field goals in four games. When he has shot the ball, for the most part he hasn't had makes, and that's killing the Bulls on offense. That's letting the Pacers get away with cheating.
When Bogans is on the court, the Bulls' offensive rating is 92.75.
By comparison, when Kyle Korver is on the court, the Bulls are scoring 116.05 points per 100 possessions. Why do the Bulls keep coming back in the fourth quarter? Because that's when Korver is on the court.
Bogans' effective field goal percentage is .462. Korver's is third best in the postseason among players who have taken at least 25 shots at .720. His three-point percentage leads the NBA in the playoffs at .800
His defense isn't as big of an issue as you might think, either. Paul George, the Pacers' starting shooting guard, is as challenged offensively as Korver is defensively. When Korver's in with the starters in place of Bogans, the defensive rating of the lineup is 106.6. That's a little higher than you would like, but with the offensive rating of 124.66, you can live with that.
It's not that Korver is more important than Rose, as some have tried to suggest. Korver's shots are set up by Rose's drives. Korver isn't going to be able to set himself up for those shots; he needs Rose's penetration to open him up for the looks.
However, once those shots are set up they need to be knocked down. Bogans lacks the boldness to take the shots and the consistency to make them. Korver lacks neither.
While there will still be a time and need for Bogans and his defense, the Bulls have been playing on their heels the entire series. It would be nice to see them play on their toes. That means coming out strong early, taking a big early lead and putting Indiana on their heels for a change. It would be interesting to see how the Pacers respond to a double-digit, first-half deficit down three games to one.
I'm not sure that it's time for a permanent change, as Korver's defense could be a serious liability against Dwyane Wade or Ray Allen, but against the Pacers' shooting guards there's not a lot of risk, and a lot of potential reward. For Game 5, the Bulls should start Korver and end the series.
