2011 NFL Mock Draft: Beer Thinker's Detroit Lions Mock Draft

Here we are again.

Less than a week to the 2011 NFL draft and for the first time in a decade, the draft won't be the high point of the year.

Let me be very up front about this mock draft.  I don't watch a lot of game film on players but I do check statistics and evaluations from numerous web sites, most notably, Walter Football.com.

I am also not a proponent of taking the best player available, or drafting based on need.  There have been arguments that one must use one or the other.  My belief is that both processes can be combined.  Not that any draft scheme is infallible; however, in my view, both ways can be used, and with weighted information you can lean more toward BPA or need depending on what shape the team is in.

I'm also going to put out there that, in conjunction with following any theory, there is the "gut instinct" that is a huge factor in all this.  Let's face it: The draft is basically a very-high-stakes Texas hold 'em.  You need to know when to hedge your bets and when to go all in.

For the draft, I'll be tossing out two to three players that, in my opinion, will put the Lions over the top.  And please, for anyone wanting to comment, this is only my opinion and it may not agree with yours.  That's OK since there are several mocks that I've seen out there that could get the Lions to the next level.

So here is the Beer Thinker's 2011 mock draft. 

Team Needs

Outside linebacker, cornerback, interior offensive line, strong safety, power running back and wide receiver

Round 1

I've gone back and forth on getting either an elite cover guy or a game-changing OLB, but I think the biggest impact a player can make is going to come from a linebacker spot.

1. OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA

He has all the tools to make an impact on every game.  He gives Gunther Cunningham options on blitz packages and he tackles well.  At 6'3", 254 lbs. with about 4.5 speed, he can get to the QB quick.  And with a vertical leap of 31", he can jump up and bat down any passes.

2. CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado

Smith does have some character issues but he can be the cover guy the Lions so desperately need.  If you compare Smith to Prince Amukamara, Smith has just about everything Prince has.  Prince is a little faster and perhaps has better technique but Smith is 2" taller and has the same kind of nastiness that Louis Delmas has.  He goes after the ball and likes to hit, which, for a corner, is a major plus.

Round 2

Ah, yes.  The offensive line.  The bane of many a fan that has to watch quarterback after quarterback run for his life and running back after running back have nowhere to run.  A lot of focus has been put on the tackle spots, most notably on LT Jeff Backus.  Many people know that I have been screaming for him to be ridden out of Detroit.  But truth be told, Backus put together a pretty good year last year and I attribute that to LG Ron Sims.

1. G Mike Pouncey, Florida

If he falls to the Lions in the second round, it would be a great indication that the gods of the NFL have finally dropped the curse of Bobby Layne.  Putting him in place of Stephen Petermen makes the Lions OL perhaps one of the best in the NFC if not the NFL.  Most likely, they'll have a shot at either Danny Watkins or Marcus Cannon.  My choice between these two would be Cannon because who would want to draft a 27-year-old rookie?  (Insert Matt Millen joke here.)

2. C/G Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State

I like Dominc Raiola, I really do.  But if Wisniewski is here, snap the boy up!  He can play RG for a year and be tutored by Raiola and then in 2012, you're looking at your center for the next 10 years.  He's a road grader at 313 lbs. and would really be able to open some huge holes for runs up the middle.  Imagine Jahvid Best getting that crease inside...zip and he'd be gone!

Round 3

More secondary help here.  Delmas is a great safety but needs a complement and this is where the Lions can get it.

1. S Sean Baker, Ball State

Don't know much about this guy but according to NFL Draft Scout.com, he's had some success at Ball State.  He was named to the 2010 All-Mac second team, was the MAC Defensive Player of the Week and was named one of the players to watch by Sports Exchange.

2. S Blake Gideon, Texas

Another under-the-radar prospect, he could be a pretty good steal from a troubled Longhorns team.  He played well enough to be given an honorable mention for the All Big-12 Conference as voted by the Big 12 coaches.

Round 4

 If there is one thing the Lions lack, it's that big, powerful back that can just wear down a defensive line.  This would be a logical place to pick one up, especially if they can get either Pouncey or Wisniewski.  A big back along with the speedy Jahvid Best to have them chase is going to have a defensive front seven panting by the second quarter.

1. RB Roy Helu, Nebraska

I would think Helu would be a surprise for most folks, but let's not discount this guy.  His junior year, he ran for over 1,100 yards, 10 touchdowns and a very respectable 5.2 yards per carry.  He had a great combine.  At 6'0" and 220 lbs., he's going to be a great target out of the backfield, real hard to bring down and will be additional protection for Matt Stafford on those critical third-down situations.

2. RB Alex Green, Hawaii

There are currently 20 NFL players from the University of Hawaii, which is becoming a pretty good resource for the NFL.  The most notable players are DE Ikaika Alma-Francis, who recorded 11 sacks for the Dolphins last year; WR Ashley Lelie, who had some pretty productive years for the Denver Broncos; and K Jason Elam, longtime kicker for the Broncos from 1993 to 2007.  Alex Green should have similar success as a third-down specialist. He is also 6'0" but weighs in at 225 lbs. and has better hands than Helu, as he caught 27 passes for 363 yards. 

Round 5

Here is where you are going to look at project players.  The Lions would also be looking for some depth at just about all spots with the exception of the defensive line.  I'd look at some big wide receivers here.  I know there was some earlier buzz about grabbing Julio Jones at No. 13 but the need at WR isn't as important as getting a quick OLB or better protection for Stafford.  I'd also consider looking at some offensive tackles here and maybe even another OLB to add depth.

1. WR Greg Little, North Carolina

I really doubt that he will be available here but he might be.  He's got some character issues and , according to DraftInsider.net, sources said he was "less than honest" during the combine interviews.  But there is no doubt about his talent and he would have been a sure-fire second-round pick if it were not for the character issues.  At 6'3", 231 lbs. with some really good hands, Little teamed with Calvin Johnson on the other side and Burleson moving to the slot would be a serious receiving corps.  And that's not including Brandon Pettigrew or Jahvid Best.

2. LT Joseph Barksdale, LSU

Barksdale has dropped in a lot of draft boards and I'm not sure why.  At 6'5", 325 lbs., he's a monster.  Great knee bend, textbook hand use and shows patience in pass protection.  He has a lot more pros than cons and could be the answer at left tackle when the contract for Jeff Backus expires in 2012.  Give him a year to learn and he just could be the steal of the 2011 draft.

3. OLB Ross Holman, Ohio State

Even an alum from Michigan State has a deep hatred for Ohio State players, but you have to admit, they have turned out some pretty darn good linebackers, including our very own Chris Spielman.  Holman may not be the fastest linebacker but he's tough, shows good instincts and takes on blocks pretty well.  At 6'0" and 227 lbs., he is considered undersized for the position.  But he has a high motor, good football IQ and has a nose for the football. 

Round 7

 When they get down here, I can't say they can expect much; however, Jason Hanson is going into his 21st season and, as much as I love the guy, his last couple of years haven't been his best.  There is no one on the Lions team that deserves to go out a winner more than he does but reality is reality.

1. K Alex Henry, Nebraska

Henry is perhaps the best kicker in the draft.  He has a huge leg and ice in his veins.  Either from 20 yards or 50 yards, Henry was cool under pressure and pretty much delivered in the clutch whenever he was asked to.  Henry could be yet another great Lions kicker in the vein of Eddie Murray and Jason Hanson.

2. FS Chris Rucker, Michigan State

He played cornerback at MSU but he will be better suited at free safety in the NFL.  He is a physical player, has active hands and with long arms, will break up passes.  He is good in run support and is a solid tackler.  He could make a big contribution on special teams.