2011 NFL Draft: Predicting What Teams Will Do Not What They Should Do
Nowadays anyone can carry out an NFL mock draft. In fact there is an endless supply of mock drafts available to internet users worldwide.
Most of these mock drafts however are not really mock drafts at all. Most of these mock drafts are simply what the author would do in each situation. There is a select minority of people that actually try to predict the draft and do what they expect teams will do in each situation rather than what they should do.
For this very reason I have decided to do this draft that selects players in positions that I expect them to be taken while also commenting on what I think should be done.
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1. Carolina Panthers Select Cam Newton
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The Carolina Panthers should give Jimmy Clausen at least one more year to prove that he can be an NFL quarterback. The worst case scenario should they choose to do this would be that they are the first team on the draft board in 2012 and take Andrew Luck.
Alas, the Panthers will draft Cam Newton. Newton has slowly been making his way up the draft boards (at least for those who didn't already have him at the very top). The franchise is hungry for a franchise quarterback after putting up with a combination of Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen over the past couple of years.
Newton would at least bring some talent to the position, whether it is talent that translates onto the field is another question altogether. Newton is essentially this season's Tim Tebow. I don't mean to compare them as players, although you probably could make that case, the comparison is based on the fact that both are good players that will be taken earlier than they should be because of hype.
Tebow forced his way into the first round when in reality he was a project that should have gone in the second round. Newton is a first round talent but not realistically worth a top five pick.
2. Denver Broncos Select Marcell Dareus
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John Fox is a smart head coach. He will make the right decision and take Dareus here.
The Alabama defensive tackle is considered the best player in the whole draft by respected NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock
The Broncos defensive line is in dire need of some beefing up. As a team they ranked 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed as well as 32nd overall in points allowed and yards allowed. Fox doesn't need a quarterback and the problems that have emerged with DaQuan Bowers makes him un-draftable in the second overall slot.
Much like last year with the Detroit Lions, the Broncos are all but certain to take a defensive tackle if Dareus is available.
3. Buffalo Bills Select Von Miller
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For me the Bills have to take Blaine Gabbert in this situation. The risk vs. reward is much more favorable with a quarterback opposed to an outside linebacker. Even though Ryan Fitzpatrick impressed during last season, quarterback is definitely still a need in Buffalo.
If Miller works out, the team will get a good piece to work with on defense. Let's say he is the next DeMarcus Ware. He puts up 15 sacks per season. By my count the Cowboys still had a stingy defense last season.
If Gabbert works out, the team will have their franchise quarterback for the next 10 to 15 years. Look at the impact Sam Bradford has made in St. Louis or Josh Freeman in Tampa Bay. The risk will essentially be removed from the equation also as we are almost certainly going to have a rookie pay-scale introduced in the next CBA.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals Select A.J Green
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Even Jordan Palmer has said that Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens won't be back for the coming season. The Bengals' hierarchy are going to cut ties with both players and replace one of them with the former Georgia star.
The Bengals should take Gabbert. Even if they can convince Carson Palmer to return he is a 31-year-old quarterback with a history of injuries. Gabbert would usher in a new era in Cincinnati and give the team a young signal-caller to compete with the other young quarterbacks in the AFC North.
Green won't be falling into a good situation in Cincinnati. He will be under a lot of pressure to perform instantly without the proper pieces around him.
5. Arizona Cardinals Select Patrick Peterson
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The Cardinals look to be in the market for a quarterback rather than looking to draft a youngster. They will pass on Blaine Gabbert also and look to improve a defense that ranked 30th overall last year.
Peterson would form a mean partnership with Dominique Rodgers Cromartie. Peterson is obviously ludicrously talented player, so much so that the Cardinals will look over other areas of need. Ken Whisenhunt was part of a Steelers team that for many years took the best player available method in the draft. Whisenhunt didn't take part in the process but likely took notice.
The Cardinals should trade down if possible. The team has lots of needs and could do with extra picks. Both the defense and offense was ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in every category.
6. Cleveland Browns Trade, Tennessee Titans Select Blaine Gabbert
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The Browns will trade down only two spots knowing that the player that they want to draft won't be taken by the 49ers.
The Titans trade up to assure themselves of the opportunity to draft Gabbert ahead of the 49ers.
The Titans will make an aggressive move to get their next potential franchise quarterback. Gabbert and the Titans could be a perfect match as Gabbert would have a ready-made first choice receiver in Kenny Britt with solid backups. More importantly he would have the ability to hand off the ball to one of the best running backs in the league more than he would have to drop back and pass.
This all depends on what the Titans give up in the trade. I have no problem with them making this trade so long as nothing more than a fourth round choice is parted with. New regimes bring new quarterbacks and moving up to get the best one possible is always a worthwhile risk.
7. San Francisco 49ers Select Prince Amukamara
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The Niners choice will be obvious provided that each team above them takes the players that they have been given.
The team needs an upgrade at quarterback and Amukamara is the second best in the whole draft after Peterson. The Browns were happy to trade the sixth choice because they knew that the 49ers would have no interest in Julio Jones.
There is nothing really to be said about this pick. Amukamara fills a need and is one of the best players left on the board.
8. Cleveland Browns Select Julio Jones
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The Browns traded down once and should in reality do so once again. The Browns need a right tackle and could pick one up in the 10-15 range of the first round. Julio Jones stock is rising largely due to his fast 40 time but more than one scout has said that he does not play to that speed on the field.
Jones would struggle to fit in the west coast offense that the Browns are trying to implement because of his big body. He may be agile for his size but he is still 220 lbs. There's no doubt that Colt McCoy needs more options, but wide receivers can be found in the latter rounds easier than tackles.
I think the Browns will trade down once, and while they have done it before, I doubt they will trade down for a second time. Mike Holmgren is an offensively-inclined mind so he will want the big weapon for his team.
9. Dallas Cowboys Select Tyron Smith
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The Cowboys won't pass up a potential starting left tackle after watching Doug Free and Alex Barron on the field last season.
Tyron Smith will be a Dallas Cowboy even though he may not be the best fit. Smith will only be 20 years of age when the season starts and likely would be plugged into left tackle from the start. He would be under immense pressure to perform instantly.
The Cowboys would be better advised to trade down and take one of the older tackles that can step in and help them win right away. The team was supposedly built to win last season so the expectation should be the same next year (even if that's unrealistic for those of us who aren't associated with the Cowboys).
10. Washington Redskins Select Nick Fairley
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The Redksins are in desperate need of talent on both sides of the ball. Therefore it makes sense that they would be delighted to see Fairley fall to them. It would however be a bad choice that the team has already made before.
Taking Fairley would mean investing in a talented but lazy defensive tackle. The Redskins already have one too many of those on the roster and he is costing the team around $100 million. Not to mention the fact that Fairley wouldn't actually fit the scheme perfectly playing defensive end in a 3-4. The Redskins will probably convince themselves that he could become a good 3-4 defensive end to justify the choice.
Fairley needs a team with strong leadership, something that does not permeate anywhere through the organization as a whole. The Redskins have many holes and few draft picks, they should trade down from this spot.
11. Houston Texans Select Robert Quinn
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The Texans need a pass rusher to complement Mario Williams. Robert Quinn is the best player available at this point. 2+2=4.
Quinn would give the team a threat from the 3-4 outside linebacker position in Wade Phillips' new defensive scheme. The only question mark over Quinn is his absence from the game for the past year but that shouldn't deter the Texans.
This is exactly what the team should do. Corey Liuget is a little on the small side to be a 3-4 nose tackle which is the team's other greatest need outside of cornerback.
12. Minnesota Vikings Select Jake Locker
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There's a lot of talk that Jake Locker is moving up draft boards and more than one mock draft has him in this position.
The Vikings obviously need a quarterback. Locker appears to have more questions than answers coming out of college this year opposed to last but maybe he could excel on a team where he wouldn't have to carry the offensive load.
The Vikings should probably try to pick up Donovan McNabb as well in order to groom Locker. However they have too many needs to trade away a pick for McNabb so it is unlikely. Either way Locker will be the choice.
13. Detroit Lions Select Jimmy Smith
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The Lions secondary has been awful the past couple of seasons. Alphonso Smith even looked good last season when he came over from Denver. Smith may give the team a viable second cornerback but they are drastically in need of a talented cover man to match up to team's No. 1 receivers.
Jimmy Smith reportedly has more red flags coming out of college than any other player. There are question marks over his work rate and willingness to take coaching instructions. The Lions will be hoping that Jim Schwartz's discipline, and maybe the threat of Ndamukong Suh eating him, would keep him in check in Detroit.
The Lions would be better suited to picking up one of the tackle prospects that are left on the board. Even Aldon Smith to help the pass rush could be a possibility which should in turn help the coverage. Kyle Vanden Bosch doesn't have that long left in the league.
14. St. Louis Rams Select Aldon Smith
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The Rams had high hopes of landing Julio Jones before his monstrous combine performance pushed him into the top 10. As such they will look to reinforce the defensive line in the first round.
Smith will give the team a replacement for James Hall who is 33 years of age. Smith could spell Hall in his rookie season depending on how long it takes Hall to go into decline.
Aldon Smith makes perfect sense in this situation. The Rams could also trade down to pick Corey Liuget if they find a team wiling to move up.
15. Miami Dolphins Select Mike Pouncey
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It's very early to take a guard but the Dolphins don't have any real glaring needs that can be filled here. Mike Nolan has proven that it doesn't take much talent for him to carve out a stellar defense while the offense's biggest need is at quarterback. Mark Ingram is a possibility but Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will likely return.
Pouncey would be an instant starter at guard. Unlike his brother he won't be playing center at the next level but could still turn into a formidable presence in Miami.
The Dolphins should trade down from this spot but would be hard pressed to find a suitor. They don't have a second round pick in this year's draft after the trade for Brandon Marshall.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars Select Ryan Kerrigan
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The Jaguars need to improve their pass rush. A defensive end is a must for the team after Aaron Kampman went down again this past year.
Ryan Kerrigan was a three year starter at Purdue. Kerrigan had 12.5 sacks on his way to the Big Ten defensive player of the year last season.
The Jaguars will and should take whatever pass rusher comes their way at the half point of the first round.
17. New England Patriots Select Cameron Jordan
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They may have already signed Marcus Stroud but Bill Belichick understands the need for quality linemen. Predicting what the Patriots will do is difficult but this is definitely not a year when they will look to trade down again.
Jordan is a big body that will give them another stud on the defensive line next to Vince Wilfork. Lost among the team's hype last season was the fact that the defense wasn't actually that good. They really missed Ty Warren, giving up over 100 yards per game and ranking 11th in the league.
It's not so much what the team should do as they have many options but a pass rusher at some stage in this draft is a must. This point may be too early with Aldon Smith off the board.
It would be fitting that the team use this—Richard Seymour—selection on their next potential Seymour type of defensive end.
18. San Diego Chargers Select Anthony Castanzo
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The Chargers will feel like they have finally made the right tackle position an area of strength.
Anthony Castonzo is the top ranked tackle left on the board and lands in a nice situation on a Chargers team without many needs. Castonzo would definitely give Phillip Rivers better protection than he is currently getting but the team should go in a different direction...
Not too different. While he may be ranked lower down the totem pole of tackles, the Chargers would be better off taking Gabe Carimi. Carimi is an outstanding run blocking tackle and the Chargers need a right tackle rather than a left tackle. Carimi would be a beast opening holes for a line that struggled to do so last season. His pass blocking isn't a problem when on the right hand side.
19. New York Giants Select Akeem Ayers
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Keith Bulluck is 407 years old and an impending free agent. The Giants are also not a stellar linebacking team. They could use another pass rusher coming from deep to make their blitz packages even more dangerous.
Akeem Ayers will fill that need. Ayers is being projected towards the top half of the first round as well as among the last few picks in the round but the Giants would be a natural fit for him.
The Giants could take an offensive lineman also but this is what they should and will do in this situation.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Select Da'Quan Bowers
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The Buccaneers will take the greatest risk reward player of the whole first round with the 20th overall selection. Da'Quan Bowers' talent is too much for the team to pass up.
The Buccaneers need a defensive end to complement Gerald McCoy upfront and should Bowers current problems turn out to be stumbling blocks that he can overcome then this could be a great pick.
The Buccaneers should pull the trigger, the 20th overall pick is not going to cost them too much money while playing it safe in the NFL doesn't win Super Bowls.
21. Kansas City Chiefs Select Justin Houston
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The Chiefs are in desperate need of a second pass rushing threat to play across from Tamba Hali. Hali has been carrying the torch on his own for the Chiefs since he became the starter there.
Justin Houston was a sack specialist defensive end at Georgia who will have to transition to outside linebacker in the Chiefs' 3-4 defensive scheme.
It's difficult to determine what Scott Pioli will do on draft day. In 2009 he took Tyson Jackson for positional value while last year he took Eric Berry because he was the best available player.
Pioli could and probably should go for Carimi here and plug him in at right tackle from day one. Imagine what Carimi would be like blowing holes open for Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles.
22. Indianapolis Colts Select Nate Solder
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The Colts don't run the ball as often as most teams so Gabe Carimi wouldn't fit here. The team needs a stud left tackle to protect Peyton Manning and look to Nate Solder to be that guy.
This is the exact move that the Colts will make and should make. They cannot afford to overlook the offensive line that cost them so heavily last season. Solder is the best pass blocking tackle left on the board and would be a good fit in Indianapolis.
23. Philadelphia Eagles Select Gabe Carimi
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The Eagles offensive line struggled last season. Michael Vick is always going to have big sack totals because of the way he plays but improving the offensive line should be a priority either way.
Gabe Carimi brings a lot of talent and strength to the right hand side of the line which will open up the running game even more for LeSean McCoy.
The only reason the Eagles shouldn't take Carimi is because of his height. He stands at 6' 7", Michael Vick—the team's quarterback—stands at 6'0". Vick already has to take a very deep drop to see the field, Carimi's presence could really disrupt the short quarterback's rhythm.
24. New Orleans Saints Select JJ Watt
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JJ Watt suffers the biggest fall on draft day. Watt was projected by some people to go as early as 11th overall but instead finds himself as another pawn in Greg Williams' chess game.
The Saints at this point will simply be taking the best player available. They are unlikely to pick any kind of offensive player while a defensive lineman would be a worthwhile endeavor.
This team has few needs therefore it should just take the best available player that suits their preference.
25. Seattle Seahawks Select Corey Liuget
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Liuget follows Watt in falling to the mid 20s. The Seahawks are the beneficiaries of this as they get to pair Brandon Mebane with Liuget to make a formidable inside presence on their defensive line.
Liuget may not be a fan favorite in Seattle but it's the right call now that Jake Locker is off the board.
Ryan Mallet is still available but the Seahawks shouldn't take him.
26. Baltimore Ravens Select Cameron Heyward
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Brian Baldinger of NFL Network has stated "I know for a fact that if Cameron Heyward's there at 26, the Ravens are not passing him up."
The Ravens would definitely be getting a good player in Heyward but he wouldn't really be filling their biggest need. Cory Redding could be replaced on the defensive line with Heyward but they should be looking towards tackle or cornerback.
Derrek Sherrod still remains on this draft board as does Aaron Williams or Brandon Harris.
27. Atlanta Falcons Select Kyle Rudolph
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Tony Gonzalez cannot play forever, as much as he would like to. Rudolph would become the first tight end off the board and eventually replace him as the starter in Atlanta.
The Falcons biggest need is not tight end however. If they really wanted to go deeper in the playoffs they need to alleviate the pressure on John Abraham to carry the team's pass rush. Abraham was the only Falcon in double digits last year (13) while Jonathan Babineuax was second on the team with a lowly four.
An edge rusher is what the Falcons should try to get but would be lucky this late in the draft to find one that could help immediately.
28. New England Patriots Select Mark Ingram
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The Patriots will see Mark Ingram as an elite addition to their offense. They may be right and he may make the team one of the most balanced attacks in the league but they still shouldn't draft him.
Ingram is easily a better back than BenJarvus Green-Ellis. However he is not so much better that he is worth taking at this point. Green-Ellis gives the team consistency and good production in the running game. He is definitely not a weakness for the team.
Many fans tend to forget that the Patriots' defense wasn't very good last season. The biggest issue they had was up front. Spending the second of two first round picks on another defensive lineman makes sense. Temple's Muhammad Wilkerson would turn an area of need into an area of strength.
Pass rush was probably the biggest problem but improved defensive line play would help that also.
29. Chicago Bears Select Derek Sherrod
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The Bears' selection is a very straight forward one. The team will and should take an offensive lineman with this pick.
Derek Sherrod is the best remaining offensive tackle on the board. He could come in and start straight away at either tackle depending on his early progression. If Sherrod impresses enough in training camp then he could be Jay Cutler's blindside protector from day one. If not then he would easily take the place of J'Marcus Webb on his level of talent.
30. New York Jets Select Muhammad Wilkerson
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The Jets need impact players in the front seven. Without a pass rusher on the board worth taking, the team will fortify an aging defensive line.
Muhammad Wilkerson would be part of the team's rotation during his rookie season without actually having to start. Wilkerson could be gradually brought into the team such as Ziggy Hood was in Pittsburgh this season (Hood only started because of the injury to Aaron Smith but played brilliantly in his second year).
The Jets should take an offensive tackle but the talent of Wilkerson will swing them towards the defensive tackle who will play end for the Jets.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers Select Aaron Williams
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The Steelers are used to picking this late in the draft and love to take the best player available. They will break the mold somewhat this year however.
The situation at cornerback is dire and Aaron Williams will be brought in to try to solve it. When you consider that the Steelers are only two seasons withdrawn from having the best pass, run and overall defense in the league, a cornerback could have a huge impact. The team led the league in sacks last season without ever really getting the added coverage sacks.
Not only could Williams improve the coverage but his presence could have a knock on effect on messers LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison.
This is what the Steelers should do in this scenario.
32. Green Bay Packers Select Ben Ijalana
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The reigning Super Bowl champion Packers will do something rare and take the same position in the first round for the second year running.
Ben Ijalana has the athleticism to eventually become a starting left tackle in the NFL. This would be reassuring to Packers' fans who watched a 33-year-old, now 34, Chad Clifton excel last season. Clifton can't play forever and there is no other youth at the position outside of last year's first choice Bryan Bulaga. Bulaga can't play both tackles.
Ijalana would have the chance to develop for a season or two behind Clifton.
The teams picking towards the end of this draft tend to do what they should, which is why they are picking so late in the first place.
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