2011 Boston Red Sox: Is All This Offense Here To Stay?

The Boston Red Sox have used a recent barrage of offensive output to climb to the top of the AL East after a 2-10 start. Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz have led the charge for Boston, but all have contributed in some way to their recent hot stretch.

After a miserable start, the Sox are now third in the majors in average (.266), second in on-base percentage (.340) and sixth in runs scored (256). Many wonder: can the Red Sox keep up this torrid pace? The only way to find out is to dig into the numbers and see what we can uncover.

One important aspect of sustainability is to examine whether or not the players have a track record of such a performance. Recent seasons, as opposed to simply taking a career view of a player, are a better barometer of judging possible statistics. This is very easy to apply to a team like the Red Sox, considering the amount of veterans that take the field each day.

Let's highlight five of the Sox players and analyze how a change in their numbers would affect the team as a whole. By taking an average season over the past five, we should be able to see how each player is performing in relation and see if a upswing or downturn is on the cards. It is roughly the third-way point of the season, so we can get a grasp of how their star players are currently performing.

I know I am not a sabermatrician or a calculus teacher, this is only meant as a broad overview of how the lineup is performing and whether or not this can be kept up for the remainder of the season. Injuries have played a slight role in some of the numbers, but not enough to take away from the main point of the article. 

David Ortiz:

2011 Season: .306 AVG/.378 OBP, 11 HR, 24 RBI

Pace: .306/.378/33/72

Five year average: .278/.385/34/109

Ortiz is having an outstanding season for the Sox at age 35, despite fears most had that his numbers would take a nosedive this year. He has only hit above .300 once in the past five years, so it's difficult to imagine he will keep up this amount of contact. His homer/RBI pace should continue at a similar rate however, resulting in another solid campaign for the DH. 

Prediction: .280/30/85

Carl Crawford:

2011 Season:

.232 AVG/.267 OBP, four HR, 24 RBI, seven SB

Pace: .232/.267/12/72/21

Five year average:.301/.348/15/74/48

Crawford's slow start probably eliminates him from reaching his average numbers, but there is a lot of evidence to believe he should continue to hit at a high level at the top of the lineup. He has always been a streaky hitter (as this season indicates), but the fact that his stolen base numbers are way down is a cause for concern. This is largely due to him simply not getting on base as much. Having Jacoby Ellsbury and Crawford on the base-paths is another dangerous weapon the Red Sox have at their disposal. 

Prediction: .275/10 HR/30 SB
 

Kevin Youkilis

2011 Season: .260 AVG/.387 OBP, eight HR, 34 RBI

Pace: .260/.387/24/102

Five year average: .298/.397/21/85/

Youkilis simply will not continue at this pace throughout the season. His average is relatively low, despite the fact his on-base percentage is close to his average and his track record shows he will break out and reach the .300 plateau. His inevitable hot streak should offset any regression by the Sox' top performers. Look for Youkilis to go on a stretch of making solid contact with the ball and help the Red Sox continue their offensive prowess. 

Prediction: .295/.400/20/90

Adrian Gonzalez
 

2011 Season: .332 AVG/.379 OBP, 10 HR 46 RBI

Pace: .332/.379/30/138

Five year average: .288/.374/32/100

 
Gonzalez has blossomed in Boston since his trade from the San Diego Padres, posting an impressive line to start the season. Coming from the spacious Petco Park to the much more friendly Fenway Park has had a major effect on his numbers. It would not be surprising if Gonzo kept up this excellent pace for the rest of the season, but a slump could be around the corner given how hot he has been lately. 

Prediction: .315/374/35/126

J.D. Drew

2011 Season: .235 AVG/.350 OBP, three HR, 10 RBI

Pace: .235/.350/nine/30

Five year average: .273/.381/19/73

Given the amount of money the Red Sox invested in their right fielder, the J.D. Drew era has been somewhat of a disappointment. This year, it appears father time has really caught up to the former Dodger. Aside from his solid OBP, the rest of his numbers resemble a sharp decline from his career numbers.

There is still time for Drew to pull it together (he is 35 not 45), but it just seems like that is unlikely. That said, the Red Sox are still performing just fine without any production from this spot, so any improvement at all would resemble a positive. 

Prediction: .250/11/45

I hope these numbers help shed a little light on how the Red Sox can expect this recent offensive burst to last for a long time to come. Their lineup is simply stacked with proven players that are difficult to get out on a nightly basis.

To put it succinctly: the Red Sox offense is here to stay and they should become the force that many predicted at the outset of the season. Look for the offense to pile on the runs and lead the ball club to the AL East title.