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Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner: Who Will Throw A No-Hitter First?

Manny RandhawaApr 15, 2011

When Jonathan Sanchez threw his 110th pitch of the night on July 10th, 2009, he made San Francisco Giants history. It was called strike three, and with that, Sanchez became the first San Francisco Giant to throw a no-hitter since 1976.

With the Giants' star-studded pitching staff, some would think it's a wonder other arms in the rotation haven't accomplished the feat.

Tim Lincecum, the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner and three-time NL strikeout king, hasn't thrown one. Neither has Matt Cain, who has been in the league since 2005.

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So that begs the question: Which of the Giants starters will be the next to throw a no-no or even a perfect game?

Madison Bumgarner:

In all fairness to MadBum, there's not much history to go off of here. He's only made 24 starts so far in the big leagues, including four last postseason.

Nevertheless, Bumgarner has shown that he has the ability to put up high strikeout totals, which is crucial to lowering the chance of a batted ball becoming a hit during the course of a game. We haven't seen enough of Madison, however, to see if he can go deep into many games without having allowed a hit.

Matt Cain:

Matt Cain has been in the league the longest out of our three contestants, having broken in with the Giants back in 2005. Since then, he's shown us just how effective he can be at shutting down opposing bats.

Though he has too often been a hard-luck loser during much of his career, he has frequently been masterful on the mound nonetheless. 

Cain has gone deep into several games in his career without allowing a hit, the most recent being on Sept. 26th, 2010, when he held the Colorado Rockies hitless into the eighth inning, and at Coors Field no less. 

In the eighth he made one mistake that resulted in a two-run homer for the Rockies, though Cain got the win.

Tim Lincecum:

The Giants' ace has been phenomenal in his first three seasons. And he has by far the best sheer stuff out of anyone on the team's excellent starting staff. 

He has the 95 mph fastball, a curve and of course, the money pitch—the devastating change-up that gets him so many of his strikeouts.

But will that translate into a no-hitter? It very well could. 

Case in point: Lincecum's two-hit, complete-game shutout of the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS. 

By striking out 14 of the 27 batters he faced, Lincecum effectively reduced Atlanta's chances of getting a ball through a hole by 52 percent. That's because the less the ball is actually put in play, the less of a chance it can become a hit.

The ability to get the strikeout is a huge plus for a pitcher on a quest for a no-hitter or perfect game. That's probably why Jonathan Sanchez was able to achieve the feat two seasons ago—he struck out 11 Padres on that historic night.

The Strikeout Leader Has The Best Shot

Not an easy call here. All three of these guys have a legitimate chance to throw a no-no or perfect game every time they take the hill—that's how good they are. 

But because Lincecum has the highest strikeout rate, he has the best chance at becoming the first of the three to achieve this feat. The more strikeouts a pitcher can tally, the less the chance of a batted ball finding a hole, and that gives Lincecum the slight edge.

The Giants have a good enough staff, however, that we might even see multiple no-hitters in the same season.

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