2011 NBA Playoffs: Predictions and Analysis for Each Round
The 2011 NBA playoffs possesses eye-popping matchups (Denver vs. Oklahoma City), with a mix of games that will make you go to sleep (Philadelphia vs. Miami). Kobe, Derrick Rose, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, and Carmelo Anthony are a few of the world's best who'll be competing in the postseason.
Will the Lakers three-peat again? Will the Bulls be able to take the next step? Will LeBron James finally lead his team to a championship? Do the Spurs or Celtics have enough left in the tank to win the championship?
These questions are answered in the predictions for the 2011 NBA playoffs.
NBA Western Conference 1st Round: Memphis vs. San Antonio
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If Memphis had Rudy Gay, this series might be more intriguing. Without him, San Antonio should have no problems with the Grizzlies. The two teams split in the regular season, but it’s worth noting Memphis defeated San Antonio by seven in Memphis after losing Gay for the season.
For Memphis to stand a chance, they’ll need Shane Battier to shutdown Manu Ginobili. If he’s able to slow Ginobili down and Zach Randolph manhandles DeJuan Blair, the Grizzlies might be able to make things interesting. Randolph averaged 23 points and 15 rebounds against the Spurts this year. To pick up the slack for Gay’s loss, Randolph needs to up his average by at least three or four points per game.
Marc Gasol taking on the aging Tim Duncan could be interesting, but I expect Duncan to hold his own against Gasol. Gasol is bigger and 100 times more physical than big brother Pau. Gasol will have to avoid foul trouble because Memphis lacks quality big men off the bench.
One x-factor for Memphis is O.J. Mayo. Mayo, who was in the doghouse earlier in the season, is capable of contributing offensively. O.J. Mayo needs to step in for Gay and play very well.
One mismatch in San Antonio’s favor is Tony Parker. Parker should have no problem ripping Mike Conley, Jr. apart. Conley is considered average, with a league full of top-notch point guards.
At the end of the day, Memphis could, very well, win the first game in franchise history. I should pick the Spurs in four, but Manu Ginobili is listed as doubtful in Game 1.
Prediction: San Antonio wins 4-1.
NBA Western Conference 1st Round: Denver vs. Oklahoma City
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Mark it down. This will be the best series in the first round by far. I’ll even call this a must-see series. Denver is a much better team without Carmelo Anthony and has shown strides defensively. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has a hungry, feisty, young team that will be looking to build on last year’s success and reach the Western Conference Semifinals.
Despite the Nuggets efforts of improving its defense, I don’t think they have an answer for Kevin Durant. I’m expecting Durant to average 35 points per game in the series. With that said, Denver has guys like Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Arron Afflalo and J.R. Smith, who are more than capable of lighting up Oklahoma City. These guys will stretch the Thunder’s defense with their three-point shooting abilities.
I’m interested in watching the big men on both teams. The Nuggets boast one of the deepest frontcourts in the league. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City wisely added Kendrick Perkins, who brings size, a defensive presence, and NBA Finals experience (winning the title in 2008 with Boston). Throw in Serge Ibaka and veteran Nazr Mohammed, and the Thunder will be able to match Denver pound for pound.
Oklahoma City won the regular season series 3-1, but look for this series to be much closer. Oklahoma City will win Game 1 at home but temporarily lose home court advantage with a loss in Game 2. Oklahoma City takes home court advantage back with a win in Denver in Game 3, but a loss in Game 4. I expect each team to win Games 5 and 6 at home, and meet in a great Game 7 clash. The game will be epic but Durant, Westbrook and the rowdy crowd in Oklahoma City will be too much for the Nuggets to handle.
Prediction: Oklahoma City wins 4-3.
NBA Western Conference 1st Round: Portland vs. Dallas
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Dallas, better known as Allas because of their lack of D, has been embarrassed several times in the playoffs in recent years. They were upset by eighth-seeded Golden State in 2007 and by seventh-seeded San Antonio last year. This season should not be any different.
Portland has a ton of firepower on the team. LaMarcus Aldridge and Marcus Camby should have no problems overwhelming the likes of Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler. Gerald Wallace, Brandon Roy, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Andre Miller will be far too tough to handle for Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion and company. While Dirk Nowitzki will get his points, I fully expect Wallace to play solid defense on him and force him into tough shots. Jason Terry will play well in the teams wins but will be silent in the losses. There’s a reason the Mavericks look like the Mav-bricks in the playoffs.
Wesley Matthews has been a pleasant surprise for Portland this season. He’s the second leading scorer on team, averaging just under 16 points per game. He should have no problem scoring against the Mavericks. Having Brandon Roy coming off the bench (healthy or not) makes the team more dangerous.
This will be a very good series to watch. I’m predicting Portland wins Game 1 in Dallas but loses Game 2. Portland wins Games 3 and 4 at home but falls in Game 5. Look for Portland to clinch the series at home in six.
Prediction: Portland wins 4-2.
NBA Western Conference 1st Round: New Orleans vs. Los Angeles Lakers
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Although the Lakers are lazy and lethargic at times, there is no way they should drop one game in this series. In fact, this series should be nothing more than a glorified bye. Los Angeles will get a chance to give Andrew Bynum, Matt Barnes, and Steve Blake a little extra recovery time. You know this series is over before it starts if Luke Walton sees heavy minutes in the series.
The Hornets have Chris Paul and that’s about it. Emeka Okafor is solid but not spectacular. If Gasol, Bynum, and Odom give even an ounce of effort, they’ll keep him in check.
Lakers General Manager Mitch Kupchak will let out a wry smile when Trevor Ariza, a former Laker wisely dumped in favor of Ron Artest, stinks up the court in the series for the Hornets. He'll try to seek revenge against the Lakers, but I fully expect him to jack up shot after shot—only to shoot brick, after brick, after brick.
The Lakers are known for playing with no effort at times. Last year's first round series against Oklahoma City showed the Lakers played when they wanted to. Then again, the Thunder have more fire power than the David West-less Hornets.
Prediction: Lakers win 4-0.
NBA Eastern Conference 1st Round: Indiana vs. Chicago
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Who do you think wins this series—the team with the best record in the league or a team in the playoffs because of a lack of depth in the East? Houston, Phoenix, and Utah finished ninth through eleventh respectively in the West but finished with a better record than the Pacers (37-45). The Bulls, on the other hand, enter the series on a nine-game winning streak.
If Chicago didn’t need anymore motivation, Pacers forward Danny Granger stated he’d rather face the Bulls over the Celtics. He said Boston’s playoff experience makes them a tougher out in the playoffs. Fair enough, but he took it one step further. He felt teams would have a better chance of beating Chicago if teams stopped Derrick Rose. Ignoring the obvious stupidity in his statement (any team is likely to lose if its best player struggles), Granger might’ve written a check he can’t cash. Stopping him will be easier said than done. Rose should average over 30 points per game in the series but probably won’t because he’ll be out of the game during garbage time.
Both Joakim Noah (34 games) and Carlos Boozer (22 games) missed extensive time this year. Playing in this series will get them more rest. This might pay dividends down the road, as their legs are fresher than most teams.
Indiana took one game out of four in the regular season but don’t expect to see it in this series. The Bulls are simply a better team from top to bottom.
Prediction: Chicago wins 4-0.
NBA Eastern Conference 1st Round: Atlanta vs. Orlando
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Atlanta won the season series 3-1, but I don’t have confidence in the Hawks, whose motto is “Pack it in, pack it in.” Joe Johnson seems disinterested, and I’d be surprised if he played well in two games in the series. Al Horford will have his hands full, guarding Dwight Howard but will play well. The Hawks need Josh Smith to play his all-around game and Jamal Crawford to make open shots.
This series will be closer than last year’s sweep, but Orlando will advance as the Hawks pack it in the final game.
Prediction: Orlando wins 4-2.
NBA Eastern Conference 1st Round: New York vs. Boston
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This year’s playoff run could very well be the last hoorah for Boston. This team is so old, they’re ready to move to Florida, collect Social Security, and reminisce about the prime of their careers while watching Cocoon.
All kidding aside, Boston possesses the “been there, done that” attitude. Boston’s no stranger to tough first-round matchups, after surviving grueling first round tests to Atlanta in 2008 and upstart Chicago in 2009.
The Knicks honestly won’t stand too much of a realistic shot because of their lack of defensive prowess. Chauncey Billups, Carmelo Anthony, and Amare Stoudemire will do enough to cause problems for a couple of games, but the Celtics will move on to the second round.
Prediction: Boston wins 4-2.
Eastern Conference 1st Round: Philadelphia vs. Miami
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I must tip my hat to 76ers coach Doug Collins. I honestly can’t believe the young 76ers actually finished 41-41. However, Philadelphia doesn’t stand a chance against the Heat. If you hate LeBron James and his showboating, dancing antics, don’t look at this series.
I expect Andre Igoudala to be intimidated (sad, but true) against the alleged “King.” He’ll average 12 or 14 points per game. Jrue Holliday and Lou Williams should dominate the point guard position, but that’s the end of Philadelphia’s advantage over the Heat.
In the end, James and the Heat will dance into the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
Prediction: Miami wins 4-0.
Western Conference Semifinals: Oklahoma City vs. San Antonio
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San Antonio and Oklahoma City will be a very interesting matchup. I anticipate this series would be similar to San Antonio’s battle with New Orleans in the 2008 Western Conference Semifinals. Oklahoma City is the fast-rising team, while San Antonio wants one final shot at glory. I’ll be looking forward to Ginobili and Parker versus Westbrook and Durant.
I think the series will go the distance. San Antonio wins Game 1 at home, and Oklahoma City wins Game 2. Oklahoma City wins the third game, but San Antonio wins Game 4 in Oklahoma City. San Antonio will keep home court advantage with a tight Game 5 win. Oklahoma City refuses to back down and will force Game 7 in San Antonio. Game 7 will be tight, but I expect San Antonio to find a way to pull out an eight-point win.
Prediction: San Antonio wins 4-3.
Western Conference Semifinals: Portland vs. Los Angeles
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The Lakers match up rather well with Portland. Portland has two true big men in Aldridge and Camby. Because Portland starts Gerald Wallace at power forward, Lakers coach Phil Jackson has the luxury of sliding Ron Artest to power forward just in case one of the big men decides not to show up to play.
Kobe needs to keep tabs on his man (most likely Matthews). He has a tendency to drift away on defense and allow his man wide open jumpers. On offense, Kobe should be able to get anything he wants. The Lakers will be okay as long as he doesn't throw up absurd 25-foot fadeaway jumpers. Those types of shots will get Portland out and running in transition.
The Lakers will need a healthy Matt Barnes to come off the bench and harass Brandon Roy. Roy is more than capable of tormenting the Lakers.
For Laker fans, the one good thing about facing Portland—Luke Walton will not touch the court outside of garbage time.
I expect both teams to split games in Los Angeles and Portland. With the series tied 2-2, the Lakers blow out Portland in Game 5, and survive a tough six-point win in Portland to clinch the series.
Prediction: Lakers win 4-2.
Eastern Conference Semifinals: Orlando vs. Chicago
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Chicago should not have much of a problem with Orlando. Chicago’s tough defense led to the team having the best record in the league. Expect the Bulls to minimize Orlando’s three-point shooting in the series by playing Howard one-on-one on the post. Orlando will not be able to get clean looks if the Bulls do not double-team Howard.
Fans should look forward to Rose penetrating Orlando’s defense and challenging the best center in the league. Meanwhile, Noah and Howard will do their best trying to one-up each other rebounding wise.
Orlando will win one game in Chicago but it won’t be enough to beat the Bulls.
Prediction: Chicago wins 4-2.
Eastern Conference Semifinals: Boston vs. Miami
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The “Alleged King” will face a familiar foe in Boston. The Celtics eliminated Cleveland in 2008 and 2010. James expects things to be different since he has Wade and Bosh by his side.
Boston will make sure to follow their blueprint of slowing James and company down on offense. The Celtics will need to avoid bad shots. Miami wants to get out and run. A bad shot will allow James to fly down the court for a cheap dunk.
Also, Boston needs to close the lane and force Wade and James to fire up jump shots. Neither guy shoots the ball particularly well. So, this clearly plays in Boston’s favor. Miami does have outside shooters with Mike Miller, Eddie House, and James Jones. Good news for Boston is Eddie House shoots really well once every three or four weeks. So, expect House to shoot the ball well in one of Miami’s wins.
Both teams will split the first four games of the series. James will sense déjà vu, as Boston wins Game 5 by 15 or 16 points in Miami. Boston will blow the Heat out by 25 in Game 6 as James will start dancing his way out of the playoffs yet again. Boston will proclaim they’re his daddy.
Prediction: Boston wins 4-2.
Western Conference Finals: Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio
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The seven-game series against the Thunder will take its toll on the Spurs. Look to expect the Lakers to kick it up a notch once they inch closer to the finish line. Parker will probably be the one consistent player for the Spurs. Duncan and Ginobili will be running on empty. Richard Jefferson will take up space, but won't contribute anything worthwhile.
I’d like to think the Lakers would sweep the Spurs (wouldn’t be shocked if they did), but I expect San Antonio to win one game at home in the series. The Lakers will win each game by double figures.
Prediction: Los Angeles wins 4-1.
Eastern Conference Finals: Boston vs. Chicago
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Chicago will seek retribution against Boston for a tough loss in the first round in 2009. Boston will give everything they have, but age will catch up to them in this series. Rose will show the Celtics why he’ll win the MVP award with his performances.
In addition, Noah and Garnett have exchanged words in the past. Noah will not back down from Garnett’s bullying tactics and will be a big force inside for the Bulls.
This game will be a defensive battle, filled with low-scoring games. It will come down to which team has the best defense and at this point I'll give it to Chicago. Noah will control the paint for the Bulls. Expect to see him swatting shots from a driving Paul Pierce or a Nenad Krstic jumper.
Two of the NBA's best point guards, in Rose and Rondo, will square off in this one.
Rose has become deadly with his much-improved jumper. Guard him closely, and he'll blow past the defender. Give him space, and he'll make the jump shot. Boston's goal will be to clog the lane and force him to take jumpers.
Rondo is a rotten shooter but kills teams by setting up his teammates. Rondo might score only eight points, but he'll dish out 17 assists and grab eight or nine rebounds. Chicago will try to force him into taking more shots. Rose will give him a little room for a shot, but he will stay in front of Rondo and close the lane. Also, Rose needs to check him and prevent him from grabbing rebounds.
Chicago will win Game 1, but lose Game 2 at home. In Boston, the Celtics will lose Game 3 but survive for a heart stopping Game 4 win. Chicago will answer back with a Game 5 win. The Celtics will face another grueling challenge but will stave off elimination in Game 6. I expect Boston to be too tired in Game 7. Chicago will win Game 7 by 18. This game will serve as a changing off the guard in the Eastern Conference.
Prediction: Chicago wins 4-3.
NBA Finals: Lakers vs. Bulls
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Laker fans will call this series, “Remember ‘91,” in reference to Chicago clobbering the aging Lakers in five games in the 1991 NBA Finals. They want the 2011 Lakers to atone for the loss. Bulls fans will call this game “The Past (Bryant) versus the Present and Future (Rose).” Bryant will take exception to the statement and will show why he’s better than Jordan.
Noah is the energy player for the Bulls. The Lakers can’t afford for the big men to take off a game with him on the court. Noah is an excellent shot blocker and rebounder, who knows how to box out and goes up with two hands for rebounds. Ironically, the Lakers big men have struggled in both of these compartments this season.
Derek Fisher needs divine intervention in order for him to stop Rose. Everyone knows Fisher is too old and slow to stay with the talented guard. Again, the big men for the Lakers need to have their heads in the game and block penetration and make it as tough as possible for Rose.
Chicago will try to get Luol Deng to slow down Kobe. Their goal is simply to contest his shots. The Bulls want to keep Kobe out of the lane as much as possible. By breaking down the defense, either Bryant or one of the big men will have an easy layup or dunk. Thus, they will live Kobe making contested jumpers.
The length of the Lakers has bothered Boozer in his days with Utah. The players need to simply put their arms up and not do the Shannon Brown (duck and run by the shooter without putting a hand in the face).
I expect Kobe to play extremely well in Jordan’s old stomping grounds, the United Center. The Lakers will win Game 1 by eight points or so. Chicago will respond to the Lakers with a 10-point win in Game 2. The Lakers will lose Game 3 in Los Angeles, but will win the next two (including a 30-point rout in Game 5) to take a 3-2 lead going back to Chicago. Expect the Black Mamba to be at his best and score 45 with Jordan in attendance in the deciding game in the series.
Prediction: Lakers win 4-2.
NBA World Champions: Los Angeles Lakers
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There you have it, folks. The Lakers will send Phil Jackson out a winner as he three-peats for the fourth time in his career as head coach. He won six rings with Jordan and he’ll win six with Kobe. Fate has decided Jackson will have one more opportunity to celebrate a championship in Chicago as he coaches his final game in the NBA.
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