NFL: Can Having a Top-Five QB Actually Hurt a Team's Super Bowl Chances?

It's no secret that the NFL is a quarterback-driven league. With emphasis on the passing game increasing every year, the premium on the position is at an all-time high. 

As Peyton Manning continues to demonstrate, an elite QB can cover up glaring flaws on offense, but would there be as many holes in the lineup if Manning was not the Colts' signal caller?

Let me precede this argument by saying that this is a problem I would love to have. With Peyton Manning at the helm, the Colts are always a contender for a championship. 

However, with his amazing prowess comes an exorbitant price tag that destroys Indianapolis' salary cap structure.

Manning has always carried around that stigma of not being able to "win the big one," even after winning his lone title in 2006. That being said, I still wanted to investigate the situation to see if teams with top QBs (and top QB salaries) were possibly struggling to maintain consistency with the constant outflow of talent. 

Rather than create a lot of vagueness by discussing who I view as the top five QBs in the league, I've tried to do some research based on salary cap numbers and "consensus" guys.

On March 2nd, 2004, Manning signed the league's richest contract: seven years, $99.2M. He's the best player in the league, and the deal simply reinforced that point in dollar form. 

Over that period, the Colts have lost a few pretty significant free agents, though.

The players may not have been necessarily successful after leaving, but most certainly were in the Colts' system.  After Indianapolis' run to Super Bowl XLI, free agent OLB Cato June, who recorded 354 tackles from 2004-06, was allowed to walk.

The following year, the Colts lost their best guard in Jake Scott, who signed a four-year pact that pays him around $5M a season. They lost their corner tandem of Nick Harper and Jason David, two players that have struggled away from the Colts' scheme but were big-time contributors at the time. 

Those are just the players they were unable to retain. Although it has not been GM Bill Polian's style to build through free agency, he couldn't really make a splash even if he wanted to. 

According to Sporting News, the Colts have signed only four free agents since that deal in 2004.

Thus, when a team has to pay a QB top-five money, it better have a good track record of plucking instant contributors in the draft every year. That would explain why, after whiffing on a few lineman early during the past handful of drafts (Tony Ugoh, Mike Pollack), the Colts have started to deteriorate in the trenches. 

Personnel evaluators almost have to be perfect, which, amazingly, Polian has been close to since taking over in 1998. 

A perfect illustration would be the running back situation for the Colts' Super Bowl-winning team. Fan favorite Edgerrin James bolted to Arizona for a lucrative contract that the Colts couldn't match. As a result they called heavily on rookie RB Joseph Addai, and he showed up big, along with Dominic Rhodes. 

Now, Manning is looking to really break the bank with his last contract. One can only assume, after looking to "maximize leverage," that his annual salary will be in the $22M-per-year ballpark.

The New York Jets don't yet have a top-five guy, but they will be paying the 2009 fifth overall pick like they do.

Mark Sanchez's salary jumps from $6.5M to $14.75M in 2011. GM Mike Tannenbaum's job just got a lot harder for a team that was strapped for cash this past season.

This is where Tannenbaum can get into trouble, though. He has a pretty successful resume of taking talented players, but he is also aggressive and more than willing to deal his picks. The Jets only have six picks after trading away their second-rounder for Antonio Cromartie last offseason.

With the exception of their lone seventh-rounder from Arizona (for Kerry Rhodes), they will also be picking at the bottom of every round. Releasing 2008 bust Vernon Gholston will clear up some cap room, but I expect Tannenbaum to try to deal some of his 2012 picks to build up his roster for another run this year.

Green Bay has the best overall roster in football, but there's a good chance the Packers will find themselves in a predicament similar to the Colts' sooner rather than later.

Super Bowl XLV MVP Aaron Rodgers is still on the original extension he signed back in 2008 and is due for a huge pay increase. According to one site, he's only due $7.25M in 2011. That's an absolute steal by QB standards. 

Lucky for Packers fans, GM Ted Thompson is one of the league's top draft gurus and should be up to the task.  If they can keep drafting well, there's no reason this team can't keep winning. It will be interesting to see the type of deal that Rodgers gets; whether or not he gives a hometown discount to save the roster.

Speaking of discounts, let's discuss one of the NFL's best in Tom Brady. Before signing his four-year, $72M extension this past September, Brady took a well-below-market-value deal to help the team bring in and retain talent. 

After winning his first Super Bowl MVP award in 2001, Brady signed a four-year, $29.6M extension. In 2005, he signed a six-year, $60M extension that made him one of the league's highest-paid players, but it was relatively low given his value as a three-time Super Bowl champion. 

It's not like he was on food stamps, but his $14.5M signing bonus was significantly less than those of Manning ($34.5M) and Donovan McNabb ($20.5M).

Saints QB Drew Brees is also a guy who's not killing his team (at this point). His base salary of $7.4M for 2011 has allowed the team to keep stud All-Pro guard Jahri Evans. 

New Orleans has a whole bunch of looming free agents this offseason (if there ever is one), and Brees' relatively modest salary will better serve GM Micky Loomis and head coach Sean Payton in keeping those key players around. 

Of course, in January Brees discussed wanting a nice extension, so we'll see on the Saints' front.

Ben Roethlisberger is due $11.6M, which some may argue is probably too much when analyzing his pure QB skills. In my opinion, though, the guy just wins.

He's not overly accurate, but he seems to put the ball on the money in critical situations. He's not overly quick or fast, but he's strong and has a nose for the sticks. 

Roethlisberger is a guy who can make up for an offensive line's deficiencies. He won a Super Bowl with one of the worst lines in SB history.

His salary is up there, though, and Steelers Director of Football Operations Kevin Colbert has been nailing enough picks to keep the team competitive every year. Much like the Patriots, he also has the benefit of free agents taking less money to play for the Steelers because they love it there. 

With Ike Taylor needing a new contract and the offensive line still in disarray, Colbert will have to work around Roethlisberger's immense salary.

As for some of the solid-value above-average QBs, Texans QB Matt Schaub is only due $5.7M in 2011. While he is not a top-five guy, he is a 4,000-yard passer when he stays healthy. 

In fact, Schaub has thrown for over 9,000 yards combined in the past two seasons.  The problem is that he cannot cover up team deficiencies like some of the above guys can (Sanchez not included). 

The only game I can recall him really putting the team on his shoulders was his 497-yard performance against Washington in Week 2, and that pass defense is terrible.

Schaub couldn't do enough to will the Texans to victory consistently. With a Manning or Brady, you're always in the game. 

Jags QB David Garrard is far from perfect, but as Deion put it, he was balling out of his mind last season. He's 33, but he's only on the books for around $8M next season. If Garrard hadn't gotten hurt the team may have snuck into the playoffs.

The problem with Garrard is his consistency. The same guy doesn't show up week to week.

With Garrard's manageable salary, Jacksonville has been able to acquire some talent around him and strengthen the team in other areas.  This team looks like they are one or two players away every year.  Garrard can win games, but he needs the supporting cast.

It would appear that, despite being a pain in the butt as far as cap management, having a top QB does a lot more towards winning a championship than losing it. 

That has been fairly obvious, but the repercussions are most certainly there. A team with one on the roster must nail their draft picks with much more consistency than is expected out of the majority of teams. That's a lot more pressure for talent evaluators to perform at the highest level every April. 

However, whether you have a top QB or not, you need to be successful in the draft for your team to have an prayer of following suit. 

The Texans are a perfect example. They have a Super Bowl-caliber offense, but GM Rick Smith whiffed on last year's first-round CB Kareem Jackson (I realize it's early, but I didn't like him as a starter going into the draft) and Houston's pass defense was terrible. 

The team has also missed early on some defensive line talent, with Amobi Okoye and Connor Barwin (also a bit early, but not promising). The most consistent effort has been at acquiring LBs, which is probably a major reason the Texans brought in Wade Phillips to run a 3-4 this year.  The 3-4, of course, is a defense predicated on good linebacker play. 

The bottom line is, in today's NFL, the only prayer at maintaining dynasty-like consistency is to have a QB that puts winning championships as his top priority. 

Having a top-five QB gives teams a chance at a title every season, but hinders the ability to retain and acquire more talent to repeat successful seasons. It is a rare player, like a Tom Brady (which, keep in mind, is very tough for me to say, being a die-hard Bills fan), who is willing to take less money with that goal in mind. 

People are already proclaiming the Pack to be a dynasty in the making; I'll reserve judgment until I see Aaron Rodgers' next contract extension.