Liver's NFL Conference Championship Picks: Saints over Bears, Patriots over Colts

Ah, how sweet it was last weekend. Not only did Filthy lose, but those trash-talking punks known as the Baltimore defense lost at home. I love seeing Brian Billick suffer. Now if only Bill Belichick can suffer this weekend.  Oh, and just in case you haven't been following sports the last week, the words for the day are: IRON-CLAD PRE-NUP and WATER BOTTLE WITH HIDDEN COMPARTMENT. In other news, the Liver is thinking he needs to go to more parties hosted by Prince. Talk about action. Maybe then we can exorcise our guilty Lohan desires.

This Sunday is shaping up to be an all-day sports marathon. You get a nice pre-NFL Conference Championship warm-up with the Mavericks hopefully pounding the shit out of a Miami Heat team that didn't deserve to win the title last year. If you don't believe me, look at their record. With the exception of Dwyane "Don't breathe on me or I'm going to the line" Wade, no one on that team, especially that fat, lazy prick Shaquille O'Neal, gives a good F**K about this season. They may have won it "on the court" in the Finals, but the way they carry themselves right now compared to the way the Mavericks do is an insult. If you think this is just a bitter Mavs fan talking, Pat Riley echoed the exact same sentiments before HE QUIT and went on his "medical leave," admitting that had the team shown more heart he would have put off his surgery until after the season. 

Anyway, that game should be a good time to get the grill going, the adrenaline pumping and the beer and whiskey a-flowing.  Both NFL games should be entertaining at the very least, and sadly mark the last real games we will see until next season. Yes, we still have the Super Bowl in two weeks, but with how insane the event has become as a result of all the corporate sideshows, spectacles, commercials, pre-games, halftimes and post-games, the game itself is almost an after-thought. Still, it's the best excuse to throw the most wheels-off party of the year and bet silly amounts of money on everything from who wins the coin toss to which team scores first.

Of course, it goes without saying that the following playoff picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Michael Strahan, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marty Schottenheimer, Sammy Sosa, Michael Jordan, Michael Vick, Lindsay Lohan and Jason Kidd would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last Week's Record: 3-1

2006 Playoff Record: 3-5

2006 Regular Season Record: 130-120-6

Sunday, January 21, 2007

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

New Orleans (+2 ) at Chicago

How can you root against the Saints? If you're a Bears fan, maybe? The way the media is portraying the Saints, rooting against them would be akin to rooting against God's team with Jesus at QB and the disciples as his offensive line.  Maybe have JFK and Gandhi as his wide-outs? You get the point.  With Shaun Alexander running all over Chicago's defense, the Bears had to go to overtime to beat a weak Seattle team. Did you happen to see Deuce McAllister last week? The only real edge Chicago has is being at home and having a better defense than the Saints. And keep in mind this isn't nearly as dominant a defense as it was earlier in the season when they were healthy. If last week proved anything it was that they are vulnerable against the run.

Other than that, the Saints clearly have the edge at every skill position on offense. Corners will play an important role in this game. Bears CB Charles Tillman will be crucial to the Bears Sunday for he will be shadowing Saints rookie WR Marques Colston. On the other end, look for Lovie Smith to follow Andy Reid in picking on Saints CB Fred Thomas every chance he gets.  I think today is the day when Rex Grossman costs this team a win. He's too inconsistent and, were it not for the long pass he completed in overtime last week, it might be the Seahawks here and not the Bears. The team with the better QB usually wins in the playoffs, and Drew Brees is clearly the better QB in this match up. Had the Bears looked more decisive last week, I might have given them the benefit of the doubt, but New Orleans is on a roll and maybe there is something to this whole "team of destiny" crap. The real factor here will be the weather and whether (no pun intended) the Saints can adjust. Nevertheless, I like the Saints to win this straight up. Their offense is just playing out of their minds right now and I just don't see Chicago being able to shut them down. Pick: Saints

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

New England (+3) at Indianapolis 

Both teams took the unconventional route here. Indy shocked everyone by beating the Ravens in Baltimore in a defensive slug-fest. It wasn't the prettiest game to watch, but if you love smash-mouth football, few games are better than that one. Indy's defense has had a makeover the likes of which have NEVER been seen. Wasn't this the SIXTH-WORST run defense in NFL history? All they have done the last two weeks is shut down Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis. Now they have to maintain their momentum and contain Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney. No offense to the Pats — I picked them last week — but were it not for the dumbest personal foul I've ever seen and the strangest interception recovery thanks to Troy Brown, the Colts are playing in San Diego this week. This match up is much better, however, and the Colts will not make the type of mental errors that the young, inexperienced Chargers did. We're all aware of the rivalry between these two and Vinatieri kicking for the Colts raises the drama factor exponentially.

And although the Colts have won the last two regular season meetings in Foxboro, the Pats have the psychological edge in the playoffs. Defenses will play a part here, particularly the Patriots' DB's against the Colts potent trio of Harrison, Wayne and Clark.  Controlling them and their big-play ability will be key for the Patriots. Bob Sanders will have to duplicate the emotion he has been playing with to fire up the Colts defense, and Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis need to make themselves permanent fixtures on Tom Brady's head.

But we all know it will come down to QB play. Peyton Manning has not had a great game in the playoffs yet and has turned the ball over at an alarming rate. This is THE moment in his career where he can erase all the doubters and whispers of playoff choking. He HAS to have a good game and win Sunday. He may not ever get this good of a chance again to define himself as a winner. He's at home, this isn't nearly as dangerous a Pats team as in years past, AND Vinatieri is kicking for his side.  Tom Brady and Bill Belichick's record in the playoffs speak for themselves, both an amazing 12-1 with the Pats. They will not be intimidated and always adjust to the team they are playing.  I expect nothing short of an instant classic. I like the Colts straight up but if you have half a brain left, and the booze and the drugs haven't quite taken their toll yet on mine, the Patriots as dogs ALWAYS cover. God, please let Peyton Manning win — I can't take another Patriots Super Bowl.  Pick: New England