2011 NFL Mock Draft: How Many Quarterbacks Go in the First Round?
Quarterbacks Blaine Gabbert and Cameron Newton Go in Top Five, Four Others Crack First Round via Numerous Trades
The role of an NFL quarterback is simply the most important in sports.
No other position impacts their team on such a level as the quarterback does in the NFL, and that makes it a very valuable commodity.
Where do most teams find this significant piece of the puzzle? The NFL draft. In fact, only once in the past eight years has a team won the Super Bowl with a quarterback they didn't originally draft (Drew Brees, 2009).
The upcoming and "unique" 2011 draft should help prove this fact. With no CBA, teams cannot sign or trade for players, making the draft a vital resource for teams in need of a quarterback.
And wouldn't you know it, the NFL is full of teams with a need at quarterback. For that reason, the first 40-50 picks could be a wild ride next week.
Buckle your safety belts, the Carolina Panthers are on the clock.
1. Carolina Panthers: QB Blaine Gabbert
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When it comes down to it, the Panthers are going to choose between Gabbert and Cameron Newton.
Charley Casserly of the NFL Network brought up why on Path to the Draft last Friday. The Panthers have plenty of pieces already in place—solid offensive line, young nucleus of players at the skill positions (and Steve Smith), 12-sack man Charles Johnson, decent linebackers and a secondary that has the potential to be satisfactory.
The Panthers could certainly use a defensive lineman as well, but quarterback was far and away the most glaring weakness last season. And even though Jimmy Clausen is still there, do you give another chance to a guy who started 10 games and posted a 58.3 rating, the worst in the NFL?
I'd say no. New coach Ron Rivera has zero ties to Clausen, and he shouldn't feel compelled to give him that second shot. The Panthers pull the trigger on Gabbert, who can be the starter right away in Carolina.
2. Denver Broncos: DT Marcell Dareus
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The consensus around the league is that the Broncos will go defense with the second pick. For a team that was 25th against the run and 31st against the pass, that's a wise choice.
Which defender do they select, however?
Both Patrick Peterson and Von Miller make sense at this position, but you can't discount the value of a disruptive defensive tackle.
He might not be Ndamukong Suh in his first year, but Dareus will be a solid addition to the Broncos' defensive front and should help them improve on those bottom-feeder numbers.
3. Buffalo Bills: QB Cameron Newton
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Let's say you're Chan Gailey, the Bills' first-year head coach who's spent 27 coaching football. You're 59 years old and you've flamed out of a head coaching job once already in your career.
How many chances do you realistically have left being at the helm of an NFL team? This could very well be your last shot at making this work.
With that said, do you feel comfortable tying the rest of your career to Ryan Fitzpatrick, a career 73.0-rated passer who hasn't been able to hold down a starting job after three opportunities?
If I'm Gailey, I tie my horse to Newton. Since 2008, seven head coaches have taken quarterbacks in the first round, and all but Josh McDaniels still has his job.
Drafting Newton buys Gailey time to both develop his quarterback and build a roster in Buffalo.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: WR A.J. Green
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With the top two quarterbacks off the board, the Bengals are forced to look to other positions at No. 4 overall.
However, that might not be such a bad thing for Cincinnati. While Carson Palmer's future is in limbo, the Bengals can grab one of the highest-rated college receivers since Calvin Johnson, in Green.
Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens are likely on the way out, and Green could team with incumbents Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham to give the Bengals a younger and potentially more dangerous receiving crew.
The quarterback position is still an issue, but there's no way Cincinnati can let Green slip past the fourth pick.
5. Arizona Cardinals: LB Von Miller
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The Cardinals have quarterback issues of their own, but Miller would be a fine consolation prize at another position of need.
Outside linebacker has been a need ever since Joey Porter failed at providing any pass rush for Arizona.
With the explosive Miller coming off the edge, however, the Cardinals should be better at bringing down the quarterback next season.
Getting a quarterback would be the best-case scenario, but fixing the pass rush is a fine starting point for the Cardinals.
6. Houston Texans (From Cleveland): CB Patrick Peterson
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As Peter King writes in his Monday Morning Quarterback, "Houston loves Patrick Peterson. Capital L. I smell a trade-up."
If Peterson does fall out of the top five, that trade-up possibility could present itself to the Texans. With the cornerback-needy 49ers picking next, Houston makes the move to pick the player many think is the best in the draft.
The move will likely cost the Texans their second-round pick, but it's a decision that will immediately pay dividends for the league's worst secondary.
7. San Francisco 49ers: DT Nick Fairley
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At No. 7, the 49ers are in a tough spot. Neither of the top quarterbacks fell into their laps, and their safe pick, Patrick Peterson, was scooped up just a pick before.
San Francisco might want to trade out of this spot as a result, but which player would a team move up for at this point?
Instead of going that route, the 49ers go with the best player available in Nick Fairley. He'll bring a mean streak to the defensive line and add another piece to an already stout defense.
Then, if Jim Harbaugh isn't sold on Alex Smith, expect San Francisco to be in talks for both Kevin Kolb and Donovan McNabb, once a new CBA is reached, to fill their need at quarterback.
8. Tennessee Titans: CB Prince Amukamara
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With both Da'Quan Bowers and Robert Quinn still available, this pick might be surprising. The Titans don't have an immediate need at cornerback, and history says they don't have a problem drafting risky players in the first round.
However, that history is exactly the reason they take Prince Amukamara.
Recent first-rounders Vince Young and Adam "Pacman" Jones scare the Titans off from taking any risks, and their dealings with Albert Haynesworth take any players with character concerns out of the equation.
Amukamara is a safe pick and gives the Titans more ammunition in their secondary to combat quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub within their division.
9. Dallas Cowboys: OT Tyron Smith
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The Cowboys would have loved for either Amukamara or Peterson to fall to No. 9, but their secondary gets no reprieve with the top two coverage prospects already off the board.
However, Dallas gets an opportunity to find their left tackle of the future.
Smith has risen to the top of the tackle class, and while he may not be the best initial player at that position, no player possesses the ceiling that Smith has.
With this selection, Doug Free can remain at left tackle until Smith is ready to take over the spot for the long run.
10. St. Louis Rams (From Washington): WR Julio Jones
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The Redskins are a team in need of a quarterback, but there simply isn't one available at No. 10 that is worth the selection.
So, when the Rams come calling about swapping spots, Washington decides their best option is to trade back.
St. Louis happily accepts, and Sam Bradford finally gets his receiver he so badly needs to take the next step as a quarterback. The Redskins miss out on Jones, but they get the ammunition needed to trade back into the first round and get a quarterback.
11. Cleveland Browns (From Houston): DE Robert Quinn
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The Browns' gamble of trading back works out to perfection, as Robert Quinn is still on the board at pick No. 11.
Cleveland not only picks up an additional pick by swapping back five spots, but they also get their pass rusher they need for their defense.
The Browns only tallied 29 sacks in 2010, a number that Quinn should be able to help immediately.
12. Minnesota Vikings: DE Da'Quan Bowers
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Like so many teams in the top half of the first round, the Vikings also have a serious need for a quarterback.
However, taking the inconsistent and inaccurate Jake Locker or the big-armed but troubled Ryan Mallett at No. 12 is still too much of a reach.
Minnesota instead ignores the worries about Bowers' knee and selects a potential premier pass rusher to play opposite Jared Allen.
The Vikings will need pressure to contain quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler within the division, and Bowers will step right in after the probable departure of Ray Edwards.
13. Detroit Lions: OT Anthony Castonzo
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The Lions need cornerback and linebacker help considerably more, but no prospect fits the mold at No. 13.
Instead of reaching for a player, the Lions take another building block in Castonzo.
Incumbent starter Jeff Backus played well for Detroit last season, but Castonzo has the ability to be their left tackle of the future.
He'd also be a solid backup for either Backus or Godser Cherilus, should they get injured or lose effectiveness.
14. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis): OLB Aldon Smith
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By trading back four spots, the Redskins likely pick up enough ammo to move up to get a quarterback like Jake Locker in the 32-37 range.
Before they get their thrower, however, Washington spends their new No. 14 pick on Aldon Smith.
Paired opposite of Brian Orakpo, Smith can help create the havoc needed in the passing game for the Redskins defense to improve.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (From Miami): DE Cameron Jordan
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Once the Buccaneers start seeing pass rushers come off the board, they make the call to the instate franchise in Miami to swing a trade-up.
The Dolphins will likely want to trade back as it is, and Tampa Bay wants to ensure they get the player they want before a team like Jacksonville, New England or San Diego takes him.
That player happens to be Jordan, a solid overall defensive end who can help add to the Bucs' 26 total sacks in 2010 and push them closer to the playoffs next season.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: QB Christian Ponder
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Ponder to the Jaguars at No. 16? Are you crazy?
Maybe, but there are plenty of reasons why this makes sense.
Current starting quarterback David Garrard is nothing more than a stop-gap, and Ponder's stock is starting to catch fire.
If he's over his arm injury that plagued his senior season, Ponder could be the best quarterback in this class—which would help revive the franchise in Jacksonville.
17. New England Patriots: OLB Ryan Kerrigan
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While the Patriots would have loved for Quinn to fall, that's not going to happen.
Instead, New England fills their rush linebacker need with Ryan Kerrigan. He's shooting up draft boards, and the versatile Kerrigan should be able to play right away in the Patriots' defense.
With picks 28, 33 and 60 left in their two-round queue, New England can wait to find a defensive end and offensive tackle later in the draft.
18. San Diego Chargers: DE J.J. Watt
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At No. 18, the Chargers' solid defense gets another impact performer in Watt.
As the draft's premier 5-technique, Watt gives San Diego help along a defensive line that has struggled in recent years.
Many blame the decline of Jamal Williams on the nose, but their defensive ends haven't played well either.
Watt also gives the team another defensive leader and a positive influence in the locker room.
19. New York Giants: G/C Mike Pouncey
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New York could potentially take a linebacker here, but they instead help out what's been their bread and butter—the offensive line.
With a need in the interior of that line, the Giants snag the twin brother of Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey.
Mike could push Shaun O'Hara or Rich Seubert for playing time, and he'd also give the Giants a backup plan if any of the starting interior linemen get injured.
Either way, Pouncey would become the future of the Giants' interior line.
20. Miami Dolphins (From Tampa Bay): QB Colin Kaepernick
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The closer the draft gets, the more hype you hear about Colin Kaepernick. He's been invited to the draft, which highlights the interest that several teams in the first round must have in Nevada's QB.
And while the Dolphins have been linked to Ryan Mallett, Kaepernick is the choice for Miami.
He has as high a ceiling as any quarterback in this draft besides Cam Newton, and his athletic ability will be a welcome attribute for a team that is used to statuesque QB Chad Henne.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: OT Derek Sherrod
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The Chiefs need a nose tackle for their 3-4, but reaching for Phil Taylor—the best at that position in the draft—doesn't make sense here.
Kansas City instead addresses their other weakness and selects Sherrod to play right tackle.
Paired with left tackle Branden Albert, the Chiefs would have bookend tackles to protect Matt Cassel and help improve their lacking passing offense.
22. Indianapolis Colts: OT Gabe Carimi
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The Colts wouldn't go wrong with picking a tackle or a guard, but offensive line is definitely their top need.
And as quarterback Peyton Manning ages, improving his protection only becomes more and more important.
With the 22nd pick, Indianapolis grabs possibly the most NFL-ready tackle in the draft in Carimi.
The Colts could immediately plug Carimi in at right tackle and improve both their pass protection and run blocking.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Jimmy Smith
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While the Eagles feature one of the NFL's most dynamic offenses, the other side of the ball has been a recent problem.
After bringing in Juan Castillo to run their defense, the Eagles take Smith, the talented but troubled cornerback.
Smith has the potential to be nearly as good as the top two corners in the draft, but he needs to keep his head on straight.
If the Eagles can do that, than they've got themselves a starting corner for the foreseeable future.
24. New Orleans Saints: OLB Martez Wilson
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The last image we had of the 2010 Saints was Marshawn Lynch going beast mode on their defense in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
Needless to say, New Orleans could use some help on defense—starting at outside linebacker.
Primarily an inside linebacker at Illinois, Wilson projects to be an outside linebacker in either a 4-3 or 3-4 in the NFL.
The Saints employ a 4-3 attacking defense, and Wilson would be perfect for blitz-heavy defensive coordinator Gregg Williams.
25. Cincinnati Bengals (From Seattle): QB Andy Dalton
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This really is a match made in heaven for everyone involved.
The Seahawks are looking to trade out of the No. 25 spot, and the Bengals need a quarterback after missing out on Newton and Gabbert.
In addition, the Bengals have worked out Dalton more than any other quarterback in this draft. There's obviously some big-time interest between the two parties, and Cincinnati can't afford for another team to get Dalton before they do.
26. Baltimore Ravens: DE Muhammad Wilkerson
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Defensive end isn't a pressing need for the Ravens, but Muhammad Wilkerson is a player that could immediately play for Baltimore.
More pressing needs, like cornerback, currently do not have a prospect remaining who is anything but a reach.
Wilkerson, on the other hand, is far from a reach.
He's athletic for his size, and Wilkerson would be able to provide pass rush for the Ravens out of the 5-technique.
27. Atlanta Falcons: DE Justin Houston
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The Falcons are in need of a defensive end, and this pick could very well be Cameron Heyward or Adrian Clayborn.
However, Houston is the pick for Atlanta because he is the more explosive defensive end prospect.
Paired with John Abraham, Houston will give the Falcons a much-improved pass rush to help a secondary that was exposed in the playoffs.
28. New England Patriots: RB Mark Ingram
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After failing to trade out of the No. 17 spot, the Patriots will likely be looking to get something for their No. 28 pick.
However, the selection that New England will likely trade is their 33rd overall pick. With no interest in No. 28, the Patriots go with a player that has been linked to them all along—Alabama's Mark Ingram.
The former Heisman Trophy winner would only add to New England's high-powered offense by giving them a legitimate No. 1 running back.
29. Chicago Bears: OT Nate Solder
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When you look at how bad the Bears offensive line played last season, it's a surprise they even made the playoffs, much less the NFC championship game.
So when one of the top five offensive tackles falls to them at No. 29, the Bears jump all over him.
While a little raw, Solder could probably start immediately for Chicago and be an improvement over what they got from that unit last season.
30. New York Jets: NT Phil Taylor
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With Akeem Ayers still on the board, the Jets might want to pick a rush linebacker for their 3-4 defense.
However, New York needs to find a replacement for Kris Jenkins, and Taylor fits that mold perfectly.
Very few 330-pound human beings move as well as Taylor does, and his big frame could help anchor a solid Jets' defense.
Besides, pass-rushing linebackers are much easier to find than nose tackles as solid as Taylor.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: G Rodney Hudson
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With the top three cornerbacks off the board, the Steelers decide to address their offensive line.
Instead of 26-year-old rookie Danny Watkins, Pittsburgh calls on Rodney Hudson to immediately solve one position on their line.
Even though he played at a lighter weight last season than typical NFL guards, Hudson was one of the more dominant interior blockers last season,
Despite any potential weight concern, Hudson can come in and help a team that was just a few pieces away from winning another Super Bowl last season.
32. Washington Redskins (from Green Bay): QB Jake Locker
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After trading back in the first round, the Redskins gave themselves enough picks to trade back into the first 32 picks.
While I think they could possibly wait until No. 41 to take Locker, Washington can take no chances with their current quarterback situation.
Given time to learn and develop under Mike Shanahan, Locker could max out the potential he has in Washington. Redskins' fans will need to work with Rex Grossman for part of a season, but at least they'll have a long-term option at the position.
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