Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Series Preview: NL East's Top Dogs Meet
Two series in the books, and it's safe to say the Philadelphia Phillies are rolling. After sweeping the Houston Astros with relative ease in the first series of the season, the New York Mets came into town and put up a fight.
After forcing Cole Hamels out of the game early in the first game of the series, the Mets were run down by one of the league's hottest offenses and of course, Roy Halladay.
Despite winning five of their first six games, there has been a lot of chatter about the Phils' from the mouths of Major League scouts. After sweeping the Astros, scouts argued that it wasn't the Phillies who looked good, but the Astros who looked terrible. They argued that the Mets would be a tougher task, and they were.
But the Phils were up to the challenge. After watching Hamels leave having surrendered six runs on Tuesday night, the Phils found themselves with their first lost of the season—against a division rival, nonetheless.
They needed to take the next two games, and through four innings, Joe Blanton looked like an ace in his own right. Though things quickly fell apart for him, the offense was fully supportive, banging out 10 runs in support of their fifth starter.
In the final game of the series, it was all Phillies. After escaping a bases-loaded jam early in the game, you kind of got the sense that the Mets, who have struggled against the Phils' ace, weren't going to get much off of Halladay.
In fact, they didn't score a single run in the series finale, and the Phillies won handily, scoring 11 runs in a rout of the Mets.
Now, after a homestand that saw them win five of their first six games this season, the Phillies hit the road for the first time to face their toughest challenge yet—the Atlanta Braves.
Will the Braves be in a position to get their phenom closer Craig Kimbrel into any of these three games, or will the Phils' hot offense and trio of aces prevail?
Game 1: Cliff Lee vs. Tim Hudson
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A few days after the "prodigal son" returned home for the Phillies, striking out 11 in his return to Citizens Bank Park, Cliff Lee will take his talents on the road to Atlanta on Friday night in hopes of punching out as many Braves as he did Astros. He'll be opposed by Tim Hudson, who has been a tough opponent for the Phillies over the last couple of seasons.
Lee was every bit as good as advertised in his season debut against the Astros last week, striking out 11 hitters and walking zero, showing off his pin-point control and nasty movement on all of his pitches.
Over the last three seasons, he's made just two starts against the Braves, but they hit him pretty well. In nine innings, they collected 15 hits and scored seven runs, resulting in an 0-1 record.
The Phillies, on the other hand, have seen significantly more out of Tim Hudson, and that may or may not bode well for them. In over 30 innings against the Braves' ace over the last three seasons, the Phils are hitting just .202.
That said, they've also collected wins and have shown that if he can't keep that sinker down in the zone, he's as hittable as they come.
Picking out an advantage here isn't easy, but there are times when I feel as though calling the two "even" is taking the simple route. Looking over the last couple of series, I'm going to give the advantage to the Phillies. The Braves have seen much less of Lee than the Phillies have of Hudson, and the two offenses are just on completely different pages right now.
Advantage: Phillies
Step Your Game Up: Placido Polanco and Alex Gonzalez
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Placido Polanco
When I normally do the "Step Your Game Up" segment, I focus on a guy who has had some success against the opposing pitcher in their career, but this time, I decided to do things a little differently in selecting Placido Polanco.
Though he's 0-for-5 in his career against Tim Hudson, Polanco should be out for a bit of revenge tonight. Last season, Hudson hit him on the elbow with a fastball that, in the long run, forced Polanco to have surgery in the offseason. Already hitting .440 on the season, if Polanco can get his revenge against Hudson, it would go a long way in helping the Phillies to a victory.
Alex Gonzalez
As for the Braves, Alex Gonzalez is the easy choice here. Not many of the guys in Atlanta's current lineup have much experience against Cliff Lee, but having spent a lot of time in the American League, Gonzalez has seen Lee a bit.
Though it isn't the largest of sample sizes, Gonzalez has four hits in 12 at-bats against Lee in his career, including a home run and an RBI.
Game 2: Roy Oswalt vs. Brandon Beachy
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After collecting a win against his former team in his first outing this season, Roy Oswalt now turns his attention to the Braves, as he looks to draw blood against the NL East for the first time this season.
He'll be opposed by the Braves' surprising fifth starter, Brandon Beachy, whom many expected to open the season in AAA but instead, was able to win the job out of spring training.
Be it with the Phillies or Astros, Oswalt has had an up-and-down experience against the Braves. With the Astros in 2009, he was tagged for six runs in three innings, but with the Phillies last season, he spun an absolute gem, tossing more than eight innings and allowing just a single earned run.
He'll be opposed by Brandon Beachy, who has actually made a couple of starts against the Phillies in his brief career. Last season, in the midst of the pennant hunt, Beachy made two starts against the Phils and lost both of them, throwing a total of 10 innings and allowing seven runs, but just three of those were earned.
Though he's pitched well this season, he'll have his work cut out for him this weekend.
Advantage: Phillies
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Step Your Game Up: Ryan Howard and Brian McCann
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Ryan Howard
Though the Phillies offense as a whole has gotten off to a hot start this season, there has been no hotter hitter than the current National League leader in batting average (small sample sizes, for the win!), Ryan Howard.
If the Phillies want to continue their winning ways this season against the Braves, they'll need the "Big Piece" to contribute against a young starter. Last season, he went 2-for-4 against Beachy with a walk.
Brian McCann
If the Braves are going to win this game, they'll need the help of a big lefty of their own—last year's All-Star MVP, Brian McCann. Like the Phils, staying healthy is going to be a priority for the Braves this season, and McCann and Chipper Jones will need to play big roles for the team, especially against the Phillies.
In his career against Oswalt, McCann is 2-for-4 with a double and a walk.
Game 3: Cole Hamels vs. Derek Lowe
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After an ugly start against the New York Mets, Cole Hamels will look to right the ship this weekend against the Braves when he takes on long-time nemesis of the Phillies, Derek Lowe.
While Hamels' struggles against the Mets have been well documented over the last three seasons, he's also had his share of success against the Atlanta Braves. In more than 73 innings against the Braves over the last three years, the Atlanta club is hitting just .243 against him, as he collected a record of 6-3 to go with an ERA of 3.70.
The Braves will send a guy to the hill who has seen a ton of the Phillies in his career, another sinker ball expert, Derek Lowe. He's logged 51 innings against the Phils over the last three seasons, and they've hit just .256 against him. In that time, he's posted a record of 4-3 to go with an ERA of 3.53.
Once again, this is a close matchup and one that's probably too close to call, but I'm going to give it a shot anyway. Citing a red-hot offense and a Hamels that will be looking for redemption, I'm giving the Phils the edge here.
Advantage: Phillies
Step Your Game Up: Shane Victorino and Chipper Jones
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Shane Victorino
Since the Phillies lineup really won't feature a single player that has hit Derek Lowe well over the course of his career, I had to do something differently yet again, and I chose Victorino as a representative to step his game up.
As the leadoff hitter, the Phils are going to need to get the "Flyin' Hawaiian" going, and in a game where they'll need to have some success against a guy that they haven't had much success against historically, what better place to start at than the top?
Chipper Jones
As I alluded to in the slide for the second game of this series, if the Braves are going to beat the Phils this season, it'll be because Chipper Jones had a say in it, and there is no better time for him to make some noise than against Cole Hamels this Sunday.
Having seen plenty of each other as NL East division rivals, Jones has collected a slash line of .375/.500/.792, with two home runs against the Phillies lefty in his career.
When It's All Said and Done...
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When it's all said and done, this will have been a fantastic series to see. Not only will it give us a glimpse of what the NL East divisional race is going to be like this season, but we'll get our first look at the true rivals of this division, the Atlanta Braves.
In the long run, another series sweep isn't out of the cards for the Phillies. They'll have to add some early runs against the three Braves starters to keep a strong, young bullpen out of the game with the Braves in the lead, but that shouldn't be much of a problem. The Phils' bats have thumped their way through the first two series, and they aren't getting many cheap hits.
I see the Phils making a statement in this series, going into Atlanta and taking all three games, led by strong performances out of all three of their aces.
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