Tiger Woods: The Top 10 Reasons He Won't Win the 2011 Masters
Most of the media and millions of his fans still seem to be convinced that, at any moment now, Tiger Woods is going to show up at a golf tournament with that red "S" back on his chest and with his super powers fully restored.
Even though we have already been falsely told that when Tiger returns to... Torrey Pines... Doral... Bay Hill that everything will be good again, we are now expected to believe that a trip to Augusta National will finally do the trick.
While Tiger's record at The Masters is incredible and we agree that there is a good chance he will once again contend, we know better than to fall for the notion that Tiger will actually win this year's event.
Here are the top 10 reasons Tiger will once again be leaving Augusta disappointed.
Reason 10 Tiger Woods Won't Win the 2011 Masters: 2010 Was a Fluke
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One theory on why Tiger will win this year goes like this:
The guy finished fourth last year after not playing for five months and enduring the most excruciating scandal in golf history. Now that he at least is on a normal schedule and on the surface seems to have some of the pieces of his life in order, victory should be easily within reach.
After all, he hasn't won The Masters since 2005 and is beyond due at a place where he has dominated for so long.
This theory is flawed because last year Tiger, despite all his mental baggage, still believed he was Tiger Woods. Now, with twelve more months without a victory of any kind having eroded his once prodigious confidence, he realizes he is no longer immortal. He is just Eldrick.
In golf, it is often better to think you are good than to actually be good. Last year Tiger thought he was still great. That won't be the case this time around.
Reason 9 Tiger Woods Won't Win the 2011 Masters: Too Many Changes
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So, since he miraculously finished fourth last year, Tiger Woods has gotten divorced, moved into a new mansion, changed his coach and his swing, altered his chipping technique, and switched putters.
So far there is absolutely no indication that any of these changes have resulted in the betterment of his golf game and a lot of evidence that he has gotten worse.
Regardless, this is simply too much mental chaos with which to win a major, especially without any previous success with these changes on which to build some confidence.
Asking even Tiger Woods to win The Masters when he has never won anything post-scandal and post-swing changes is like asking a virgin to tame Rihanna.
It ain't happening.
Reason 8 Tiger Woods Won't Win the 2011 Masters: Recent History
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It isn't just that Tiger Woods hasn't won since his life blew up. Tiger Woods hasn't won The Masters since 2005. The last time Tiger Woods won at Augusta, most of America didn't know who Barack Obama, or what Facebook was.
While he has contended in each of those five winless years, his lowest 18 hole score has been an almost pedestrian 68, a score he has bettered only once this entire season.
You can win The Masters without going lower than 68, but you better not shoot over par any of the other rounds. Playing only on par 72 courses on which he has previously dominated, Tiger has shot over par in six out of 16 stroke-play rounds so far this year.
Those percentages just won't get it done.
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Reason 7 Tiger Woods Won't Win the 2011 Masters: Power Outage
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It has been quite a while since Tiger Woods was one of the longest drivers in golf, but now he is barely longer than the average PGA tour pro (insert your own mistress joke here).
Its not just that Tiger now longer dominates a course with his length, he hasn't picked up any accuracy in the exchange. He is hitting less than 50 percent of his fairways.
While you can get away with being a little wild at Augusta, you have to hit it long off the tee to make birdies and eagles. Tiger is still "reaching" his share of par fives, but with three woods instead of four irons. This is why he has made only one eagle on the PGA tour since last year's Masters.
Last year Tiger made four eagles and still only finished fourth. Does anyone really believe that he has four eagles in him again this year?
Reason 6 Tiger Woods Won't Win the 2011 Masters: His Putter
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During the first decade of this century you really only needed to know one thing to determine if Tiger Woods was going to win a golf tournament: Was Tiger Woods making his six-to-eight foot putts?
If Tiger was making them he was virtually a lock to win. During the other weeks where he only made about half of them, he never did.
Tiger hasn't been solid from that range at Augusta since 2005 and hasn't been close to that anywhere since the scandal.
Now, he isn't even using the same putter with which he won 14 majors.
There is absolutely no reason to believe Tiger's putting will suddenly return this week.
Reason 5 Tiger Woods Won't Win the 2011: His Short Game
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By far the most underrated part of Tiger's game has always been his short game. At his best, he was every bit the wizard as the legendary Seve Ballesteros.
Bizarrely, Tiger has recently altered the way that he releases the club in his short game and the results have been horrid. Shots that used to result in tap in pars (or the occasional chip in) now leave Tiger with those putts in the six-to-eight foot range that Tiger is no longer making.
At Augusta, this sudden weakness will be exposed at some critical point.
Reason 4 Tiger Woods Won't Win the 2011 Masters: The End of Masters Mystery
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The dirty little secret of The Masters is that much of its history has been a bit contrived and a result of simple percentages. Because the field was by far the smallest and the weakest of the major championships, the game's superstars have always started The Masters with a much better chance of contending than at any other big event.
When you add to that statistical advantage the mystique of Augusta and the importance of course knowledge, it was almost a given that at least one of the past champions was going to win or at least come close.
However, those days may be coming to an end. The field is now much larger, stronger and deeper than it has ever been. Just as importantly, thanks to years of near 18 hole television coverage (heck there is now even an Augusta National video game!) much of the mystery and mystique of the place has been diminished for a new generation that doesn't seem intimidated by anything.
Reason 3 Tiger Woods Won't Win the 2011 Masters: Too Many Doubles
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One of the most underrated parts of Tiger's game has always been his ability to make so many birdies without making any double bogies.
This is no longer the case.
His year has been marked by untimely double bogies, including one in a playoff that got him bounced from the match play championship.
There is no place where double bogies can happen more quickly than at Augusta and, if he is playing aggressively enough to win, there seems little doubt that one or two will come Tiger's way this week.
Reason 2 Tiger Woods Won't Win the 2011 Masters: The Competition
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In this new, technology-induced era of golf parity, there has never been more players who can win any given major than there are today.
The era of anyone dominating golf is probably gone for good and making it even more difficult for Tiger at this year's Masters is the fact that many of the top contenders are suddenly getting their games in shape.
Phil Mickelson, Padraig Harrington and Anthony Kim all made their presence felt at Houston and the young European contingent has at least half a dozen players who are more prepared to win this Masters than Tiger Woods.
Reason 1 Tiger Woods Won't Win the 2011 Masters: The Magic Is Gone
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In most of Tiger's major victories there has been at least one moment when something magical happened. When Woods has pulled off a shot at the most critical of moments that no one else would have under the same circumstances.
That hasn't happened since his epic 2008 US Open victory. It is beginning to look like Tiger, even without the scars of the scandal, may have gone so deep into the well for that victory that either the reservoir is dry or he can no longer find it at will.
Does anyone really believe that if Tiger somehow manages to get himself into contention on Sunday that the putt he made on the 72nd hole at Torrey Pines would drop instead of lip out?
Not even Tiger would bet on himself in that situation any more. The magic is gone and it is unlikely to return.
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