Picking College Football's Biggest Games: Week Six

The upsets of last weekend have already carried over to this weekend as No. 10 South Florida lost at home to Pitt last night. 

Who will be the next victim?

Could it be Penn State?  The Nittany Lions take on a Purdue team that hasn't yet played to its full potential.  A home game against one of the best teams in the conference would be a great way to kick-start their season.

Could it be Alabama?  The Tide is riding high after their nationally televised beatdown of Georgia last week.  Can they focus on a talented Kentucky team, that has the talent on defense to keep the Bama offense out of the endzone.

Could it be Texas?  The Longhorns may be caught looking ahead to next week's Red River Rivalry game with Oklahoma and Colorado has been a much improved, especially at home, where they have already beaten then No. 8 West Virginia.

As I gaze into my crystal ball, this is how I see week six unfolding.

No. 6 Penn State (-11.5) at Purdue 

Penn State's offense is impressive and the running game is spectacular.  The Lion's ground game has produced 1338 yards and 19 touchdowns in the first five games.  That's bad news for a Purdue defense that has been bad against the run.  The Boilermakers allowed over 200 yards on the ground to a Notre Dame team that hasn't run the ball on anyone this season.

No run defense against a team that runs the ball as good as anyone in the country...hmm.

Prediction:  Penn State, 34-24

Florida State at Miami (-3)

As usual, the separation between these two arch-rivals is minimal.  The Seminole defense is clicking on all cylinders and will cause fits for the Miami quarterback Robert Marve.  The 'Canes will not go silently though, they have shown that they no how to fight and will find enough offense to keep the game really close.  As they normally do, this is another FSU/Miami game that could come down to a last second field goal.

The 'Noles are too tough defensively.

Prediction:  Florida State, 25-23

No. 12 Florida (-22) at Arkansas

The Gators had their pity party earlier this week and are now firmly focused on destroying the Razorbacks.  The Hogs have been miserable this season offensively, turning the ball over too much and allowing more sacks than any other team in the country.  Florida's defense has shown much improvement and the Gator secondary will have plenty of chances to intercept Casey Dick's passes.

The Gators chomp the Hogs.

Prediction:  Florida, 48-17

No. 4 Missouri (-10) at Nebraska 

On the heels of a hard loss to Virginia Tech, Nebraska will open Big XII play with perhaps their toughest challenge of the year.  The Cornhusker defense will have to play beyond their capabilities in many spots if they hope to slow down Chase Daniel and the Missouri offense.  Bo Pelini will be bringing pressure form all over the field in the hope of putting Daniel under constant pressure.

The Tigers win their first game in Lincoln in 30 years.

Prediction:  Missouri, 42-27

No. 13 Auburn (-4) at No. 19 Vanderbilt

If you are a fan of high flying offenses, this is not the game for you.  Auburn continues to struggle to find a consistent offense but what they lack in offensive fire power they make up in defensive ferocity.  The Tigers defensive front seven will wreak havoc on the Commodores, who lack a passing threat and rely heavily on the run.  It may not be the prettiest game, but the Tigers are making a living on ugly wins this season.

Vandy can't pass and Auburn can stuff the run...you do the math.

Prediction:  Auburn, 20-14

No. 7 Texas Tech (-6) at Kansas State

Kansas State has the offensive firepower to stay with Texas Tech thanks in large part to an offensive line that doesn't allow the quarterback to be sacked.  The Wildcat defense on the other hand will definitely struggle against Graham Harrell and the rest of the Red Raider offense, but will keep it close for a little while.

The Red Raiders have too much offensively.

Prediction:  Texas Tech, 45-35

 

Kentucky at No. 2 Alabama (-17)

Kentucky quarterback Mike Hartline is growing into a nice player, but the Wildcat offense is missing that little something extra.  The Crimson Tide have that little something extra in Glen Coffee, who makes the Bama offense go.  Coffee may not be flashy or all that fast, but he is solid and can break the big play and when he gets going, that opens the passing game up for John Parker Wilson. 

Alabama starts to look mortal again thanks to the Kentucky defense.

Prediction:  Alabama, 27-20

No. 5 Texas (-13.5) at Colorado

Texas is rolling offensively and it is all due to Colt McCoy, who may be the most underrated quarterback in the country.  However, the Longhorns have not yet faced a defense that could stop them through the air and while the Buffaloes haven't exactly been stopping a who's who of quarterbacks, they did keep Pat White from getting anything going and held FSU's Christian Ponder to a 10-of-22 day. 

Texas better not get caught looking ahead to Oklahoma!

Prediction:  Texas, 31-23

Arizona State at California (-9.5)

Something has been missing from the Arizona State offense this year. Maybe the return of Keegan Herring will be the difference, but don't count on it. Coordinator Bob Gregory will continue doing a good job with the Cal defense, containing the Sun Devil running game and preventing Rudy Carpenter from taking the game over.

Even without Jahvid, Cal still the Best.

Prediction:  California, 28-20

Illinois at Michigan (-2)

Michigan looked like a different team in the second half of last weeks upset of Wisconsin.  Is this a sign of things to come?  I don't think so.  Illinois will show the Wolverines what a spread offense looks like and Michigan's offense will continue to struggle.  The Big Blue may break a play or two, but Juice is the best quarterback the Michigan defense have faced all year.

The Juice may not get loose, but he will throw the ball well against the Wolverines.

Prediction:  Illinois, 27-21

No. 23 Oregon at No. 9 USC (-16)

Don't expect the USC team that showed up in Corvallis this week.  Home game on national television and at night.  The type of game the men of Troy live for.  The Ducks rebounded from their collapse against Boise State with a throttling of Washington State, but the Oregon quarterback situation ins scary in a game like this.  The Ducks will go to-to-toe with the Trojans for more than three quarters, but Mark Sanchez and Joe McKnight will put the game out of reach in the fourth.

The men of Troy live for this type of game.  Traveler will run plenty of laps on Saturday night.

Prediction:  USC, 38-30

Game of the Week

No. 14 Ohio State (-2.5) at No. 18 Wisconsin

This will be an old-fashioned, hard hitting, smash mouth, Big Ten football game.  Chris "Beanie" Wells and P.J. Hill will run, run, and run some more.  When Ohio State stops the run, Allen Evridge will be called upon to pass the ball. Something he hasn't done all that well this season.  When Wisconsin stops the run, Terrelle Pryor has shown he can pass downfield, but he can also cause some problems on his feet.  That will be the difference in this game.

The Buckeyes hand Brett Bielema the first home loss of his career.

Prediction:  Ohio State, 30-24