Strikeforce Diaz vs. Daley: 5 Predictions for the First Zuffa Era Event

He's young, he's dangerous, he's caused some controversy, and he's a stone-cold individual who has explosives wrapped in barbed-wire and surgically connected to the spot where his wrists are supposed to be.

He's Team Rough House's Paul "Semtex" Daley.

He has a shot to become not only the second Strikeforce Welterweight Champion in the promotion's history—not only the first Brit to hold the Welterweight Championship in the history of any major MMA promotion, and not only the first Strikeforce Welterweight Champion of the Zuffa era, but he also has the opportunity to do what nobody has been able to do in almost a decade...

In other words, the explosive Southpaw has the opportunity to become the first man since Jeremy Jackson in 2002 to score a decisive win over current Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Nick Diaz by way of a form of knock out.

The last man to score a TKO win over Diaz was KJ Noons, but in the minds of almost every fan of the sport, the win was far from decisive. Albeit, it was a win that came by TKO due to the now-infamous cut on Diaz's face.

Daley has the chance, but there's no such thing as an "easy fight" when one has to face one of Stockton, California's badass Diaz Brothers—a lesson that Rory MacDonald will do well to bear in mind when he meets "Baby Nate" at UFC 129 in Toronto.

As far as Nick's fight night with Daley, the overall card is just as satisfying as the main event. Team Cesar Gracie is represented well with "El Nino" Gilbert Melendez, who will return to action and attempt to keep his Strikeforce Lightweight title. But a familiar foe from PRIDE Shockwave 2006 named Tatsuya "The Crusher" Kawajiri stands in his way of making a successful return to action.

In addition, Gegard Mousasi is back and looking to keep the curse of the 205-pound belt going in a bout with the iron-jawed "Quest Master," Dan Henderson, but before he can get his hopes up about taking his belt back from Hendo, he will hopefully look to first defeat an equally hungry opponent—an opponent, who we learned on Thursday March 31,2011,was not going to be Mike Kyle as originally intended.

Finally, The Grand Master of Flying Submissions is back in the States and Shinya Aoki is 100 percent prepared to show his focus despite the recent tragedies in Japan. But highly-touted prospect Lyle "Fancy Pants" Beerbohm wishes to avenge his loss to Pat Healy, and he'll look to do so at the expense of arguably the best damn submission-based Lightweight in MMA, period.

Naturally, I would like to tell you what I think is going to happen, but I'd feel more comfortable telling you guys what will really happen in almost one week.

The title says "predictions," but here are the five things that are really going to happen at the first Zuffa-era event of the Showtime-based promotion.

(Okay, fine—these are really my predictions... I still say they're going to happen though.)

1. The Featherweights Will Impress on the Undercard (but You Still Won't See It)

Hiroyuki Takaya defeated Bibiano "Flash" Fernandes the last time we saw him in action, and he has now been signed on to fight Robert Peralta in the final prelim bout before the event goes on live. Meanwhile, Rolando Perez (former "unfortunate soul that just happens to show up on Jose Aldo's record," if you followed the WEC before the merger) takes on undefeated 3-0-0 Edgar Cardenas.

If there's one thing that we've learned about the lighterweights/featherweights, bantamweights, flyweights, and strawweights in MMA—it's that even when they go all three rounds, they bring it every time for the full time. I expect no different when it comes to the two Featherweight fights on the undercard.

Sadly, the other thing I'd expect is that you'll have to be one of the many that bought a ticket in order to see either bout, because Zuffa or no Zuffa, the last thing you can expect is for Showtime to pass up the shot to promote one of their upcoming boxing encounters or the preview of the latest episodes of one of their Original Series as opposed to making your most casual fans give a damn about some of the new breed of MMA.

Sure, Showtime, go ahead and promote another series.

It's not like these guys have talent or anything.

Besides, Pacquiao's really going to have the fight of the year with Mosley, right?

2. If Shinya Aoki Doesn't Show Any Refined Striking, Lyle Beerbohm Will KO Him

Unfortunately, what you're seeing is the last time Aoki was in action, which was against Yuichiro "Jienotsu" Nagashima at DREAM Dynamite! 2010.

Aoki ran about three or four laps around the ring for the first part of the bout, which was purely an all-standup round as per the rules, and he got knocked out in about four seconds by Nagashima.

Lyle Beerbohm is not a K-1 fighter, but seven wins by form of KO doesn't translate to inferior striking either.

If Aoki hasn't made any attempt to clean his striking up and merely banks on Beerbohm to slip, he will have a very wide hole punched in that spot where his face is at this moment.

If Beerbohm gets taken down, then perhaps it's likely a different story, but Aoki needs to clean up his stand-up game or else he'll be looking at the lights within no time.

3. Gegard Mousasi Will Somehow Get Dan Henderson, Even Without Facing Mike Kyle

Gegard Mousasi's last fight was at DREAM 16 when he forced Tatsuya Mizuno to submit to a rear naked choke—a fight in which the Armenian's takedown and ground abilities were at their highest level.

The former 205-lb. Champ was supposed to face Mike "MAK" Kyle for a shot at Dan Henderson somewhere down the line, but MMA Junkie reported on Thursday March 31st, 2011 that a broken hand would force Kyle to pull out from the fight.

Before this bit of news, my prediction was that Mousasi would use his KIckboxing and his Judo to neutralize Kyle's Wrestling until the closing minutes of round two, which is when I saw a form of choke being the proverbial poison that finished Kyle off and hindered his journey towards the Light Heavyweight title.

With this bit of breaking news, I will now predict that somehow, someway, regardless of whether Mousasi stays on the card or not, The Armenian Assassin will find himself standing across the cage from the current champ—and he will likely do it before he even gets a chance to fight Kyle.

4. Gilbert Melendez Will Go 2-0 Against Tatsuya Kawajiri and Leave Little Doubt

In one of the greatest bouts in Mixed Martial Arts history, Gilbert Melendez fought 15 minutes with Tatsuya Kawajiri, leaving PRIDE's Shockwave 2006 event with a unanimous decision victory and igniting the fire of determination inside Kawajiri.

Five years later, Kawajiri has the chance to avenge the loss and take Melendez's belt in the process.

Of all the bouts on this card, I'd say this is the one fight that I can say before event time that I honestly do expect to go the full duration.

I would definitely expect Melendez and Kawajiri to take the fight to the ground and battle there for portions of the fight, but don't expect a complete show of dominance from Melendez for five rounds.

Kawajiri may have beaten Josh Thomson to rebound from a loss to Shinya Aoki, but Melendez can rest assured that this fight will be anything but a resemblance to the first fight.

Kawajiri is not the same fighter now that he was when he first fought Melendez, and expect him to give Melendez an even tougher outing than in the first one.

Anticipate this one being either a close unanimous decision or a split decision, but expect that Melendez finds a way to come out on top once again.

5. The Minute That Paul Daley Gases out (if He Does), Nick Diaz Will Submit Him

There have been two problems that Paul Daley has faced in his most recent fights:

The first problem is his inability to make weight in certain fights (such as his last fight against Yuya Shirai at BAMMA 5 and his UFC 108 bout with Dustin Hazelett), a problem that will cost him his crack at Nick Diaz's belt if he can't land on 170 by the weigh-ins.

The other problem is the question of Daley's cardio and whether it exists.

Unless you saw Daley when he fought Jorge Masvidal, you probably have that question in your head.

Daley needs to make sure that there is no question behind his cardio—he needs to make sure that he can go 25 minutes if Diaz causes the fight to go on for that long.

The minute that Daley looks the slightest bit exhausted, Diaz will catch his second wind, even if he never loses his first wind.

Diaz may not have the cleanest boxing game, but when he lays in his boxing, it does hurt.

Daley will find himself being no exception to this rule if he tires himself out at any point during this bout.