College Football Betting: Power Rankings vs. The Point Spread

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Public bettors and college football fans that like the ‘favorites’ found themselves in the ‘rough’ this past weekend. College football betting favorites went a wallet-busting 17-30-1 Against-the-Spread (ATS). The big betting favorites (2 touchdowns or more) were 9-12 ATS, so backing those big boys with your bankroll was not a complete bust, but still a losing proposition.

College football handicappers that prefer to rely mostly on current form during the first month of the season can find themselves ‘off course’ and ‘scrambling’ to find the ‘green’. After all, if you listen to the ‘talking heads’ and the TV network ‘experts’, they would have you believe that the dominating early season performances turned in by top-5 teams Florida, USC and Georgia make them unbeatable. So what happens on the final weekend of September? Florida loses on their home field as a 22-point favorite to Mississippi. No. 1 Southern Cal (USC) is outplayed on the road in Corvallis and loses to Oregon State as a 4-touchdown favorite. And the Bulldogs were beaten soundly as well, as Georgia ‘dawged’ it as a 7-point home favorite and were ‘rolled’ by the ‘Tide when Alabama built a 31-0 halftime lead and cruised over their SEC opponent.

The linemaker makes adjustments weekly based on a number of factors including previous weeks’ differences in the ATS results. The betting public will often look to ‘hot’ teams or teams coming off a powerful performance to continue their high-level of play. The reality is that letdowns, emotions and the ebb and flow of college contests with young athletes make it difficult to bring your ‘A’ game every week. Several factors must be considered and incorporated into your analysis and breakdown of a contest before you go ‘all-in’. One must consider scheduling, match-ups, injuries and motivation. Coaching and the ability to make adjustments factors into the equation, along with conference versus non-conference play.  You must use current stats and numbers to isolate strong, balanced offensive teams and better defensive units, and understand the strength of those numbers given the current slate of competition. The savvy handicapper can ‘dig’ through boxscores and incorporate some of the misleading statistical information, turnovers and special teams play into ‘value’ opportunities in upcoming contests. But perhaps one of the most misunderstood aspect of the point spread on a weekly basis is that the linemaker’s original opinion of a team’s fundamental strength can be an accurate indicator of long-term performance and point spread success.

What does this mean? There are some great opportunities in the upcoming college football schedule to get the ‘green’ and earn plenty of profit by comparing and understanding the week 1 power rating numbers to the current week’s power rating and point spread. Last season, perceptive and value-conscious shoppers were able to go 41-20 ATS during the 3-week stretch of games in late September and early October. They did it by comparing the week 1 power rating numbers to the current week’s line, and wagering on the teams with a 7+ point discrepancy favoring the week 1 number. Following that formula this past week proved very profitable, as those same bettors and myself were able to go 15-4 ATS by simply doing our homework and utilizing an original power rating to turn profits.

We cashed in on teams like SMU (+18), Oregon State (+25), Mississippi (+22) and Nevada (+4); all underdogs with three winning outright. How did we do that? By understanding that there are some over-adjustments in the betting line following 3-4 games, and applying some power rating principles and original team forecasts into value-betting opportunities. I’m a little disappointed we didn’t ‘let it rip’ and pile up more profits this past weekend by just following this formula and fundamental approach. This upcoming weekend has 16 contests that fit this profitable profile.