March Madness 2011 Predictions: Breakdown and Predictions for Round 3
March Madness is in full swing now, and we are in the middle of the most action-packed days of college basketball action.
The "First Four" and second-round games are over, and now it's time to predict the third-round games. The winners of these games will proceed into the Sweet 16, and will be that much closer to the Final Four. These games are usually much closer than the second-round games, and upsets are still expected.
As the weather warms up, college basketball catches fire. This list will help you predict who will win every game in the third round this year, and if you play fantasy games that allow you to pick games every round, this is the list for you.
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 George Mason (Ohio State)
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Ohio State is the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament this year, but Kansas showed us that doesn’t matter at all by losing to Northern Iowa. Ohio State defeated Texas-San Antonio by 29 in its second-round game, and George Mason came back from a double-digit deficit to beat Villanova by four.
The Buckeyes are led by Jared Sullinger inside, who average 17 and 10 in his games, and Aaron Craft brings it up, averaging 4.5 assists per game. While you need to shut down these two, you can’t forget about Devin Gibson either, who dropped 24 in second-round play. The Patriots are led by Cam Long (15.3 PPG), Ryan Pearson (14.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game) and Luke Hancock (10.7 PPG, 4.3 APG and 4.2 RPG).
While the Patriots are a good team, they do not have good enough defense to stop OSU, and they don’t have quite enough offensive weapons to beat the Buckeyes. Look for OSU to win, but it might have its first scare in this round.
No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 5 West Virginia (Kentucky)
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In second-round play, West Virginia defeated a tired Clemson team by eight, and Kentucky held off a defensive-minded Princeton team by two. While both teams won, neither did it in a convincing fashion.
Guard Casey Mitchell leads the WVU scoring with 14.1 points per contest. Joe Mazzulla brings the ball for the Mountaineers up the court and creates for others, averaging 4.1 assists per game, and Kevin Jones is their best rebounder with 7.4 per game (not to mention his 13.3 points). Kentucky is led by guard Brandon Knight, who averages 17.4 points and 4.2 assists per game, and forward Terrence Jones goes for 16.6 points and 8.9 boards per game.
West Virginia has had more close games than Kentucky, and has a plus-5.4 points per game margin, but Kentucky allows 0.3 fewer points per game, and scores 6.9 more points per game (that’s a plus-12.6 points per game margin for those of you keeping track). Kentucky has proven that it can beat the best teams, ousting Florida’s hot team twice, and winning at Louisville by 15. This ability to step up in big games gives Kentucky the edge in this game, even if the Wildcats aren’t quite as used to close games.
No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 11 Marquette (Syracuse)
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In second-round play, Marquette upset a strong Xavier team by 11 to prove the Big East’s power, and Syracuse defeated Indiana State by 17. This will be the second Big East matchup of the tournament, with one being played the day before.
Syracuse is a very balanced team overall, and Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche get the offense running. The Orange truly excel on the defensive end of things, Rick Jackson rebounds and blocks shots with the best in the nation, however, their free-throw shooting is a concern.
Marquette is led by guard/forward Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 16 points per game. Jae Crowder is the Golden Eagles big man, averaging 11.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per contest, while assist-maker, Dwight Buycks leads the team with 3.6 per game to go along with his 9.2 points per game.
When they hooked up in regular-season play, Marquette defended its home court and won by six. While that’s impressive, Marquette is terrible away from home, going 6-10. I see Syracuse seeking revenge on Marquette for the regular-season loss, and proving that it is the better team, but it will not be a blowout.
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No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 7 Washington (Washington)
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The Tar Heels beat Long Island University by 15 in second-round play, and Washington defeated Georgia by a mere three points.
UNC is led by freshman Harrison Barnes, newfound point guard Kendall Marshall and Tyler Zeller down low. Washington is led by Isaiah Thomas, who scores about 17 points and has six assists per game. Thomas hit a game-winning shot against Arizona to win the Pac-10 Conference tournament, and he has become the Huskies' go-to guy. Washington also has forward Matthew Bryan-Amaning, who scores about 15 points, and grabs about eight boards per game.
While Washington is not seeded very high, UNC struggled in ACC tournament play, having double-digit deficits in all three games. UNC did beat LIU, but it allowed 87 points to a poor offense, leading me to believe that not everything is worked out. I see Washington upsetting UNC and getting to the Sweet 16 for the second year in a row.
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 8 Michigan (Duke)
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The Duke Blue Devils are not only the most hated team in college hoops, they are also one of the best. Duke blew out 16th-seeded Hampton, 87-45, and point guard Kyrie Irving, who had not played since a December win against Butler, led all scorers with 14. Michigan, on the other hand, destroyed Tennessee, 75-45.
While both teams impressed in their second-round games, I don’t see this game being very close. This game is Mike Krzyzewski’s first chance at 900 career wins, and the Dukies will come out firing. Coach K has done so much for the program that they will come out and give him that milestone win.
The game itself features two similar teams, both being smaller and guard-heavy. The reason Duke is a No. 1 seed, and Michigan a No. 8 seed is obviously because Duke is better. The difference shows how much more effective Duke is compared to Michigan, and with Kyrie Irving working his way back to playing form, Duke just keeps getting better. I don’t see any way the Blue Devils walk out of the arena without giving Coach K his 900th win.
No. 4 Texas vs. No. 5 Arizona (Texas)
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Arizona is riding high, after a Derrick Williams block on an attempted game-tying shot by Memphis. Texas defeated an Oakland team that made a valiant effort but fell short after going down big and trying to dig itself out.
The Arizona Wildcats are led by Lolo Jones and Derrick Williams, who combined for 40 points in their second-round win over Memphis. The Texas Longhorns are led by Tristan Thompson, who had 17 points, 10 rebounds and seven blocks against Oakland. Thompson is the big man on the team, while J’Covan Brown went for 21, while guard/forward Jordan Hamilton went for 19.
Texas is a dangerous team when it has its defensive swagger, and it looked like the Longhorns found it in the beginning of the game against Oakland, but lost it near the end. Arizona is a young team that has not played in many close games, and the Wildcats settle for too many jump shots. While this game will most likely be very close, I see Texas holding off the young Wildcats and moving on to the Sweet 16.
No. 3 Connecticut vs. No. 6 Cincinnati (Connecticut)
7 of 16
This Big East matchup is the first of the tournament, and probably won’t be the last (with 11 of 68 teams from the Big East). Connecticut beat Bucknell by 29 in the second round, and Cincinnati defeated Missouri by 15.
While we all know about Player of the Year candidate Kemba Walker (23.5 PPG, 4.3 APG), UConn also boasts Alex Oriakhi, who scores 9.9 points, and grabs 8.6 rebounds per game. On the other side, Cincinnati has forward Yancy Gates (11.9 PPG, 7 RPG), and Cashmere Wright (8.9 PPG, 3.9 APG).
While Cincy has a good defense (holding teams to fewer than 60 points per game) and a balanced attack, the Bearcats do not have the skill or momentum to beat UConn. The Huskies won a historic five straight games to take the Big East tournament title, and they are riding high. The Huskies do not have a good road record (5-5), but they do at neutral sites. UConn is 8-0 on neutral courts this season, and they have the best big-shot-maker in the country in Kemba Walker. Look for the Huskies to win this game, and I don’t think it will be close.
No. 2 San Diego State vs. No. 7 Temple (San Diego State)
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This could very well be an interesting matchup between the San Diego State Aztecs and the Temple Owls.
The Owls play stingy defense, and rely on that to carry their less-than-spectacular offense. SDSU is a well-balanced team that can also play good defense, but the Aztecs have a strong offense to back it up.
The Owls needed a game-winning shot from Juan Fernandez as time expired to beat Penn State. Fernandez and Ramone Moore combined for 46 of the Owls’ 66 points. These facts trouble me because SDSU is a better team than PSU.
The Aztecs are able to play stingy defense, and they’ll know how to shut down Fernandez and Moore. They are also much better offensively than Penn State, and I see them beating the Owls in this one.
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 9 Illinois (Kansas)
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In their opening games, Kansas defeated Boston University by 19, and Illinois beat UNLV by 11. Kansas lost in the second round last season, but this year the Jayhawks are trying to prove that they are Final Four material.
The Fighting Illini are led by Demetri McCamey, who scores about 15 points, and gets about six assists per game. Down low their best rebounder is Mike Davis, who goes for 12 points and seven boards per contest. This is a good Illinois team, but it cannot match up against Kansas. KU has the Morris brothers, Tyshawn Taylor (who goes for nine points and 4.5 assists per game), and Brady Morningstar, who can score in bunches.
Overall, Kansas is bigger, faster and just plain better than Illinois, but this is March Madness so you never know. I give the edge to Kansas, but don’t be surprised to see an early exit like last season.
No. 13 Morehead State vs. No. 12 Richmond (Richmond)
10 of 16
This game is very interesting because both of these teams were supposed to lose in second-round play. Obviously this did not happen, and Morehead State topped Louisville by one, and Richmond came back to beat Vanderbilt by three.
This game should be very interesting since both schools average about 70 points, and allow about 61 points. The Eagles are led by forward/center Kenneth Faried, who averages 17.5 points and 14.6 rebounds per game. The Spiders are led by forward Justin Harper, who averages 17.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game.
While the stats of their leaders point to Morehead State, there are a few things which point drastically toward Richmond. The Spiders are 10-3 on the road this season, while the Eagles own a poor 8-8 road record. Since neither team is home, Morehead could be in trouble.
Secondly, the Spiders played better competition in the Atlantic 10, while Morehead state merely won its conference championship in a weak Ohio Valley conference. Because the Spiders have played teams like Temple, they know what it is like to play good teams. This give Richmond the edge, and I see them topping the Eagles to make it to the Sweet 16.
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth (Purdue)
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VCU upset a strong Georgetown team by 18 in the second round, while Purdue defeated St. Peter’s by 22. Forward Jamie Skeen leads VCU in points (15.3 per game) and rebounds (7.4 per game), while Joey Rodriguez leads the team in assists (4.8 per game), and puts up 10.5 points per game too.
VCU is a good team, but it will not be able to handle the weapons of Purdue. The Boilermakers have point guard Lewis Jackson, forward E’Twuan Moore and JaJuan Johnson, who averages over 20 points and about 8.5 rebounds per game. Purdue is a much better team, and I expect it to bring VCU back to earth.
Even though VCU can destroy Georgetown, it will not be able to handle the many weapons of Purdue.
No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Florida State (Notre Dame)
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In their second-round games, Florida State won by seven over Texas A&M, and Notre Dame defeated Akron by 13. FSU was supposed to lose to A&M, but like many March games, what was supposed to happen didn’t.
For Notre Dame, Ben Hansbrough leads the team with 18.5 points and 4.3 assists per game. The Fighting Irish also have Carleton Scott, who contributes 11.6 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, and you can’t forget about Tim Abromaitis, who can combine with Hansbrough to outscore opponents by themselves. The Irish are a senior-heavy team, filled with experience and talent, who are looking to prove that they deserved a No. 1 seed. FSU is led by Chris Singleton, who puts up 13.8 PPG and 7.1 RPG.
FSU handed Duke its first loss of the season through a combination of defense in the paint and poor shooting from Duke, but Notre Dame can counter both. The Irish have big men down low, and they can shoot the three. This combination allows them to attack in many ways instead of just one, and FSU will have a much harder time defending that. I see Notre Dame winning this game and continuing to prove they are No. 1-seed worthy.
No. 1 Pittsburgh vs. No. 8 Butler (Pittsburgh)
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The Pittsburgh Panthers are the No. 1 team in their region, and they are playing the eighth-seeded Butler Bulldogs.
Last season, Butler came within inches of a national title against Duke on a shot by Gordon Hayward, but things have changed for the Bulldogs. Gordon Hayward left for the NBA, and his partner in crime, Matt Howard, has had a down year in 2011, resulting in nine losses this season.
The Bulldogs defeated a familiar foe in ninth-seeded Old Dominion in the first round, while Pittsburgh beat UNC Ashville, who had its only success in an overtime game in the "First Four" against Arkansas Little Rock Bulldogs.
As for the game itself, I don’t see any way Butler can shock us again. It squeaked by ODU, winning 60-58, and Pitt is a much better team. Pittsburgh is a balanced team, with floor general Brad Wanamaker making everything happen. Pitt can score, it has stingy defense, and is a legitimate contender to make it to the Final Four and beyond. No surprises here—Pitt will win this game.
No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Kansas State (Wisconsin)
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Wisconsin and Kansas State both defeated 30-win teams in the second round, avoiding upset, and both are seeking the Sweet 16. Wisconsin topped Belmont by 14, and Kansas State defeated Utah State by 15.
K-State is led by guard, Jacob Pullen. Wisconsin is led by guard Jordon Taylor and forward Jon Leuer. The interesting matchup in this one will be Pullen on Taylor and vice versa, and whoever is guarding Leuer (most likely Rodney McGruder).
In this game, I see Wisconsin winning because the Badgers have two big-scoring threats, compared to Kansas State’s one.
No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 BYU (BYU)
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BYU defeated 14th-seeded Wofford by a mere eight points, while Gonzaga beat St. John’s by 15. St. John’s has beaten the best of the best this season, and even though the Red Storm do not play well away from home, Gonzaga’s win was impressive.
During the season, BYU lost Brandon Davies for a violation of the Cougars honor code, and their inside presence faded into thin air. While Jimmer Fredette can go for 50 in any given game, he might not be enough for a title.
This game could be very good. Gonzaga is underrated, while BYU is overrated. Even if Jimmer Fredette is on everybody’s radar, I see him beating the Zags with his shooting and assists. I give the edge to BYU, but this game will be closer than a regular No. 3 vs. No. 11 matchup.
No. 2 Florida vs. No. 7 UCLA (Florida)
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In their second-round games, Florida beat UCSB by 28, while UCLA beat Michigan State by two. Considering they won by such a small margin, it would not be crazy to think that the UCLA Bruins will not be dancing in the Sweet 16.
UCLA is led by forward, Reeves Nelson, who averages 13.9 points and 9.0 rebounds per game. Nelson has the potential to break out in any game and make a huge difference. Florida is a balanced team, but its leading scorer is Erving Walker, at 14.5 points per game, while forward Chandler Parsons averages 11.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Both Walker and Parsons average about 3.5 assists per game.
This game is pretty much a regular No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup, and Florida should win the game. While it won’t be easy, the Gators will pull it out.
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