March Madness 2011 Predictions: The Most Likely 3rd-Round Upsets
Round 2 of March Madness 2011 is in the books, and No. 13 seed Morehead State tops the list of major upset winners. As the round of 32 gets underway, though, some potential Cinderellas are going to go down. How many lower seeds will make it past opening weekend?
Read on for the six underdogs most likely to battle their way to the Sweet 16.
6. No. 9 Illinois over No. 1 Kansas
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Bill Self’s teams have a rocky track record in the tournament. That record includes last year’s Jayhawks, who fell in the round of 32 to Northern Iowa with many of the same personnel as this year’s edition.
The Illini aren’t especially similar in makeup to that Panthers team, but they come in loaded with confidence after running UNLV out of the building last night.
With Mike Davis anchoring the inside, Illinois will force the Kansas bigs to work on defense, something not a lot of teams have been able to do this season. Add in the leadership of senior PG Demetri McCamey, and the Illini have the offensive weapons to present a stiff challenge to the Jayhawks.
Illinois isn’t an elite defensive team, so Kansas will likely get its points, especially from the very physical Morris brothers inside.
Still, if the Illinois offense reaches anything like the efficiency it showed against UNLV, Kansas will need to play at the top of its game to avoid yet another early exit.
5. No. 13 Morehead State over No. 12 Richmond
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This one doesn’t look like much of an upset in seeding terms, but the A-10 tournament champion Spiders deserved better than a No. 12 seed.
It won’t be easy going for star-in-the-making Kenneth Faried and his Eagles, especially with Richmond’s interior defense coming off a five-block showing from Darius Garrett.
The 6'8" Faried will, almost certainly, add yet another double-double to his extraordinary career (85 double-doubles, the career rebounding record for all of Division I). Even so, he’ll need another game of strong performances from his supporting cast.
If Morehead State can keep Richmond's Kevin Anderson from going off for another 25-point night and if Demonte Harper and Terrance Hill can provide some perimeter offense, the Eagles will have an even chance of moving on to the Sweet 16.
4. No. 11 Gonzaga over No. 3 BYU
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Can the Zags contain scoring machine Jimmer Fredette? They’ve got the pieces for it.
Gonzaga starts two guards, Stephen Gray and Marquise Carter, who are 6’4” or taller, along with a huge front line behind them led by seven-footer Robert Sacre. All that length will make the 6’2” Fredette work a little harder for every shot.
Still, Fredette has faced tougher defenses and come away the winner. Whether the rest of the Cougars will be able to handle Gonzaga, though, is another question entirely.
BYU is still without suspended rebounding leader Brandon Davies, and Gonzaga is coming off a game in which they out-rebounded St. John’s by 23.
Against Wofford, the Cougars started 6’5” Charles Abouo as their de facto power forward. He’ll have to bang with Gonzaga’s 6’7” Elias Harris while 6’8” Noah Hartsock tries to contain Sacre.
Gonzaga should dominate on the glass again and BYU will be depending on jump shooting for its entire offense.
Fredette will get his points, but unless he gets a lot of help, Gonzaga will get another victory.
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3. No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth over No. 3 Purdue
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There isn’t a team in the field playing with more confidence than VCU, coming off a strong win in its "First Four" matchup with USC and a blowout win over Georgetown last night.
Purdue will be by far the toughest test the undersized Rams have faced, boasting a star center in 6’10” JaJuan Johnson and two terrific, veteran guards in E’Twaun Moore and Lewis Jackson.
Even so, when VCU’s pressure defense is on its game—as it decidedly has been in the tourney—it can force mistakes out of any offense. The big win over Georgetown came, in part, from better three-point shooting than the Rams can expect to replicate, but they’re still a versatile offense with multiple shooters.
Purdue has the personnel and the experience to clamp down on the Rams as Old Dominion did in the CAA tournament final, so it’s entirely possible that VCU’s streak will end on Sunday.
That said, if Purdue underestimates the Rams at all, or if either of the Boilermakers’ starting guards gets in foul trouble, VCU will make them pay.
2. No. 10 Florida State over No. 2 Notre Dame
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Florida State is a team with a lot of flaws, but it has a legitimate chance to beat any opponent for one simple reason.
Not only do the Seminoles have the best FG percentage defense in the country, they have the best such defense in the last 10 years at 36.4 percent.
Notre Dame will be as tough a test as the ‘Noles have faced all season, as their perimeter-oriented offense won’t provide as much fodder for Florida State’s shot-blockers on the interior.
Texas A&M made some runs against Florida State by knocking down three-pointers and Notre Dame certainly knows how to do the same. Even so, the Seminoles defense can adjust to make life difficult for any offense.
On the other side, Florida State's offense will have an easier time against the Irish than against the defense-first Aggies (Notre Dame’s own FG percentage defense trailed such Big East powerhouses as DePaul and South Florida this season).
If Notre Dame’s defense comes to play, it can probably scratch out a win. On the other hand, if the Seminoles find a hot hand on offense, their defense should be enough to give them the upset.
1. No. 11 Marquette over No. 3 Syracuse
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One of a pair of Big East rematches in Round 3, this game has the distinction of having had the first meeting go to the lower seed.
One of Syracuse’s biggest advantages in NCAA tournament play is that most opponents haven’t faced anything like its 2-3 zone. Witness—Carmelo Anthony’s national title team, which defeated a string of Big 12 opponents who had barely faced any zone all year.
Syracuse won’t have that advantage against a Marquette team that beat the Orange in Milwaukee earlier this season.
Obviously, Marquette won’t have the advantage of a home crowd (though it will still have more fans in Cleveland than the Orange). Even so, Marquette will not be intimidated by its conference rivals.
With Darius Johnson-Odom coming off a strong three-point shooting performance, the Golden Eagles also won’t be without scoring options against the zone.
Syracuse is a No. 3 seed for a reason and Marquette will need to play two good halves on offense, not the one it managed against Xavier, to have a shot. Still, the Golden Eagles should, at worst, take this one right down to the wire.
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