NCAA Bracket 2011 Predictions: Previewing Marquette vs. Xavier in March Madness

Xavier battles Marquette tonight in what should be one of the more compelling opening round matchups in the field. Both the Musketeers and the Golden Eagles have tournament success which they can draw from, and it will be fun to see two proven winning programs have at it. I will let you know who has the edge in this matchup and ultimately which team will emerge victorious.

Read on as I break down all the key aspects of this matchup.

Backcourt

Xavier gets the majority of their scoring punch from their backcourt. Tu Holloway is averaging 20.5 points per game and leads the Musketeers scoring attack. Point guard Mark Lyons is also a skilled playmaker and is averaging 13.8 points per game. Senior Dante Jackson is also an integral part of the Muskies backcourt and serves as a calming presence for Head Coach Chris Mack.

For Marquette, junior Darius Johnson-Odom is the catalyst behind the Golden Eagles backcourt. Johnson-Odom is a stat stuffer and is relied on heavily by Buzz Williams as evidenced by the fact that he is playing 30 minutes per game. Underclassmen Junior Cadougan and Vander Blue round out Marquette’s backcourt rotation, and while both players are promising talents, neither is one of the go-to guys in Marquette’s attack.

Johnson-Odom is definitely a player that Xavier will have to account for, but the backcourt edge definitely goes to the Musketeers in this matchup. Holloway is one of the best guards that you will find in the tournament and Lyons and Jackson are also skilled perimeter players.

Advantage: Xavier

Frontcourt

Jamel McLean and Kenny Frease serve as the muscle for Xavier in the frontcourt. Neither player is flashy, but both McLean and Frease work well in that they know their role on the team, which is cleaning the glass and getting stick backs on the offensive end. Senior Andrew Taylor also sees a significant amount of minutes and has more finesse to his game in comparison to McLean or Frease.

Marquette’s strength is in their wings, who can play around the rim and also stretch defenses from the perimeter. Both Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder fit into the mold of that aforementioned type of wing player. Earlier this week, Xavier head coach Chris Mack compared Crowder to former Marquette star Lazar Haywood, in the fact that he can pull defenders away from the backcourt. Mack has made no secret of the fact that he is worried about the challenges that Crowder and Butler represent. Chris Otule is a 6-11 260 lbs. sophomore, who is cut in a mold similar to Frease and McLean.

Butler and Crowder have the ability to take over games and serve as serious threats to the Musketeers and any other opponent that Marquette may face. Xavier’s frontcourt personnel is sold, but unlike their backcourt, you don’t have to worry about them taking over games.

Advantage: Marquette

Coaching

Both Xavier head coach Chris Mack and Marquette head coach Buzz Williams are eerily similar in their coaching resumes. The two coaches are young up-and-comers who have enjoyed success at their respective programs. Mack and Williams each have NCAA Tournament experience, and while Mack has technically had more success in the NCAA’s, both coaches will have no trouble navigating the NCAA Tourney landscape. Finally, both coaches have recently been mentioned in connection with high profile coaching vacancies across the country.

Toss up

Bench

Marquette essentially plays a seven man rotation and relies heavily on starters Jimmy Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom. Outside of the primary seven Golden Eagle players, there isn’t a single player who logs 10 or more minutes per game. As heavily as Marquette relies on their starters, Xavier is even more reliant on their starting rotation. Tu Holloway, Mark Lyons, and Dante Jackson all average over 35 minutes per game. Andrew Taylor and former Purdue signee transfer, Jeff Robinson, constitute the small bench that Head Coach Chris Mack uses. Technically Marquette goes to their bench more often, but at the end of the day this game will be won by the players in the starting five.

Toss up

Prediction

Both teams have experienced rosters that are littered with NCAA Tournament talent. This matchup will likely feel more like a second-round game (or do you call it third-round now?) rather than an opening round tilt. The key to the game will be Marquette’s defending of Holloway and Lyons in the backcourt and consequently Xavier’s defense of Butler and Crowder on the wings. These two teams are similar in that they rely on a couple of core players for the majority of their production, and if, as an opponent, you can slow those players down, you give yourself a lot better chance to win. With that being said, I think Xavier will win this game because of Marquette’s inexperience in the backcourt and Dante Jackson’s presence as a defender on the wing.

Xavier